Invest 93L,SE Carolinas,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[miamicanes177]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN AUG 13 2006

A BROAD NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES EAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST. ALTHOUGH THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY POORLY
ORGANIZED...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

[wxboy222]

18Z Models:



INTENSITY:

GFS: 26 KTS
DSHIP: 42 KTS
GFDL (12Z): 38 KTS
ICON: 36 KTS
RGEM: 36 KTS
NGPS (18Z): 24 KTS
SHIP:44 KTS

[Hurricaneman]

where this goes is pretty much a mystery right now

[Stormavoider]

It almost looks like it's trying to clear out an eye.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=29&lon=-75&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=15&palette=ir.pal

[JonathanBelles]

im not seen it stormavoider.

[wxman57]

It almost looks like it's trying to clear out an eye.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=29&lon=-75&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=15&palette=ir.pal

Typically, the eye tends to form somewhat after an LLC develops. However, as I that image, perhaps you're right! But I see two eyes, two ears, and a nose!

[Stormavoider]

I did put "almost" in bold.

[wxman57]

I did put "almost" in bold.

I know. Sorry, couldn't resist.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Those models look cah-razy!

All twisted and such.

[southerngale]

Are they talking about this wave?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
236 PM CDT SUN AUG 13 2006

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND RE-TREAT BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE...LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES...AND THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE DURING THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY PERIOD AS THE
FORECAST AREA MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN END OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDLCH

[Grease Monkey]

[OuterBanker]

Love the models, even the ones initially heading to NC are kicked away. I can understand, its the big bill fish tournament this week and the fishermen will kick it away if it approaches.

[cycloneye]

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 13

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 29.9 76.6 115./ 9.9
6 29.3 76.3 155./ 6.5
12 29.3 76.0 90./ 3.0
18 29.4 75.7 68./ 2.1
24 29.9 75.7 6./ 4.4
30 30.3 75.8 343./ 4.7
36 31.0 76.1 339./ 7.7
42 31.8 76.4 338./ 7.9
48 32.5 76.6 349./ 7.1
54 33.0 76.9 328./ 5.6
60 33.3 77.0 343./ 3.4
66 33.5 77.1 313./ 1.7
72 33.6 77.3 318./ 2.2
78 33.4 77.9 249./ 5.8
84 33.1 78.6 245./ 6.7
90 32.7 79.2 237./ 5.9
96 32.2 80.3 246./10.7

STORM DISSIPATED AT 96 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.



18z GFDL run for 93L.

[Weatherfreak14]

GFDL model has it moving towards NC the switch it to moving SW along the SC coast.

[Thunder44]

I did put "almost" in bold.

I don't think it looks even "almost". It just looks like a break in the higher clouds.

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

GFDL model has it moving towards NC the switch it to moving SW along the SC coast.

Very close to the 12z scenerio, so where will this system off the AHEM CAROLINAS go, what part of the CAROLINAS will it hit? Or will it go harmlessly out to sea? Only two possible outcomes. Well, it could just go poof and not develop as well.

[Derek Ortt]

or it could do what NOGAPS is saying and move to the west.

I place as much faith in the GFS (which most of those models are based off of, which is why I really don't care what they're saying) as I do the current cease fire in the mid east... none

[miamicanes177]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932006) ON 20060814 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060814 0000 060814 1200 060815 0000 060815 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.8N 76.2W 28.7N 76.4W 28.9N 77.2W 29.6N 78.3W
BAMM 28.8N 76.2W 28.8N 76.4W 29.2N 77.0W 29.9N 77.8W
A98E 28.8N 76.2W 28.6N 75.9W 28.7N 75.6W 28.8N 76.0W
LBAR 28.8N 76.2W 28.4N 75.9W 28.9N 75.7W 29.8N 75.8W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060816 0000 060817 0000 060818 0000 060819 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.2N 79.3W 30.9N 81.5W 31.0N 84.9W 31.6N 88.9W
BAMM 30.7N 78.5W 31.7N 80.1W 32.1N 82.7W 32.8N 86.0W
A98E 29.7N 76.3W 30.2N 77.1W 30.5N 78.6W 29.1N 80.4W
LBAR 30.9N 75.7W 33.0N 74.8W 36.2N 71.6W 39.8N 68.1W
SHIP 39KTS 47KTS 48KTS 44KTS
DSHP 39KTS 47KTS 32KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 28.8N LONCUR = 76.2W DIRCUR = 135DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 30.5N LONM12 = 77.7W DIRM12 = 127DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 31.5N LONM24 = 79.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

If I had to pick an area of possible TC formation, I would guess around 28N, 77W and moving south,,. agree?
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

[Dean4Storms]

If I had to pick an area of possible TC formation, I would guess around 28N, 77W and moving south,,. agree?
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

As good as anyones guess at this point, but it looks very close. Could be more Neast near 29n 76.