Invest 93L,SE Carolinas,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Nimbus]

Official reports say this is still cold core so it may take some time to work its way to the surface. I still don't understand why none of the models have it following the front as the front sags down into the Bahamas?

[Dean4Storms]

GFDL model has it moving towards NC the switch it to moving SW along the SC coast.

It is also depicting a closed low in the western Gulf near the end of that run. Alot could take place here.

[Stormavoider]

My guess is 27.5N 75W.

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

It is also depicting a closed low in the western Gulf near the end of that run. Alot could take place here.

Yes, I noticed this too and it should be noted that thats two runs in a row showing low pressure forming in the gulf from a model that is not even focusing on that area. I would watch the gulf as well if I lived in Tx or Old Mexico.

[ROCK]

GFDL model has it moving towards NC the switch it to moving SW along the SC coast.

It is also depicting a closed low in the western Gulf near the end of that run. Alot could take place here.

Yep, not sure what it is seeing. Maybe a MCS spitting out around the LA,MS border and developing.......I doubt that will verify.....

[SouthFloridawx]

Even if there is a surface low there it's still attached to the front. We'll have to wait till the trough pulls out and see what happens.

[boca]

In order for something to develop 93L has to detach itself from the frontal boundary then lets see what happens.

[Galvestongirl]

In order for something to develop 93L has to detach itself from the frontal boundary then lets see what happens.

Is this how Alicia formed?

[cycloneye]

A BROAD NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES EAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST. ALTHOUGH THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED...SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

10:30 PM TWO for 93L.

[Rieyeuxs]

In what may be a stupid question for the experts, how do you tell from a satellite view (or IR) whether a system is cold core or warm core? I understand the difference between the two theorectically, but I can't find any images that compare features between the two systems. Also, is there a visible way to tell that it's hybriding?

[SouthFloridawx]

Interesting enough the NAM tries to close off a low near PR as it moves wnw.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

In what may be a stupid question for the experts, how do you tell from a satellite view (or IR) whether a system is cold core or warm core? I understand the difference between the two theorectically, but I can't find any images that compare features between the two systems. Also, is there a visible way to tell that it's hybriding?

Structure and symmetry. For example a coma shaped system, with lots of low clouds that do not appear clearly on IR imagery around the center, would be cold core. In most extratropical lows, the precipitation is located to the North of low center (or Pole ward, thus South in the Southern Hemisphere), where as in most tropical lows (that are not sheared) the precipitation is spread out evenly in a rough circular pattern over the whole system.

As for hybrids. It is a bit tricky, but usually the coma shape, with the addition of deep convective clouds around the center, especially to the south side.

Hope that helps.

[wxboy222]

93L models:


INTENSITY:
GFS {18Z): 24 KTS
SHIP: 47 KTS
NAM (18Z): 28 KTS
GFDL (18Z): 28 KTS
RGEM (18Z): 40 KTS
NGPS (18Z}: 25 KTS (init)

Aaron
IPR
Podweather

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Looking at that models plot; makes me think this storm could be like Bob 1991 track wise. Just a guess of course

[Hurricaneman]

Looking at that models plot; makes me think this storm could be like Bob 1991 track wise. Just a guess of course

To tell you the truth, Im pretty sure thats not going to happen, but still need to keep an eye on it in case

[Rieyeuxs]

Thank you Hybridstorm_November2001!


I appreciate the help!

[Cookiely]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 140929 CCA
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
338 AM EDT MON AUG 14 2006

CORRECTED AVIATION SECTION

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - WEDNESDAY)...COMPLEX WX PATTERN FOR OUR
REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS...CONSISTING OF AN UPR TROF OFF THE SE
U.S. COAST AND A SFC TROF UNDERNEATH IT...WHICH IS EXTENDING
ACROSS S FL ATTM. ALL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE CUTTING OFF THE UPR
LOW TODAY AND DRIFTING IT WEST ACROSS FL TUE AND WED. HOWEVER THEY
ALL DIFFER ON THE DETAILS OF DEVELOPING A CLOSED SFC LOW ALONG
THIS STALLED BOUNDARY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF FL...HOW
STRONG IT DEVELOPS...AND WHERE IT EVENTUALLY GOES. BASED ON
CURRENT SAT PICS...GFS LOOKS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SFC LOW AND
PREFER THE SLOWER DEVELOPMENT OF THE NAM AND ECMWF.

FOR TODAY...CURRENT WATER VAPOR SHOWS DRYING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF THAT IS ACROSS S FL. WITH MODELS SHOWING
VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE TROF AND GIVEN THE DRIER AIR NORTH OF
TAMPA BAY...BEST CHANCE FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES AND CLOSER TO THE COAST NEAR THE SFC TROF.

THEREAFTER...DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE SFC LOW OFF THE EAST
COAST...THE UPR LOW WILL PLAY A PART IN OUR WX TUE AND WED AS IT
DRIFTS ACROSS THE STATE...NAMELY VIA ENHANCING OUR AFTERNOON TSTM
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER NOTED THAT ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHARP
DECREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPR LOW.
FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE AND LOCATION OF DRIER AIR SUGGESTS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THE ENHANCED AFTERNOON TSTM COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES WITH LESSER TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.
AS SUCH...WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS TUE AND WED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF OUR ZONES...WITH POPS TRENDING LESS GOING NORTHWARD.

HIGHS THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL
NORMS...HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM (WED NGT-SUN)...REGARDLESS OF THE FINAL OUTCOME WITH
THE POTENTIAL LOW FORMING EAST OF FLORIDA AND MOVING EITHER OVER
THE STATE OR JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...AS LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE
STARTING TO SHOW...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FACT THAT ALL
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SORT OF TROUGHINESS AND PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM WHICH REMAIN OVER
FLORIDA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN SLOWLY EXPAND FROM THE NORTHEAST BRINGING LIGHT WINDS OVER
THE REGION AND KEEPING POPS AT CLIMO FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIODS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DRIVEN BY SEA BREEZE
MECHANISMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES...ITS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN FOR THURSDAY AS IT
IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION HAVE A CYCLONE NEAR THE AREA
ON THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. IF THIS HAPPENS THEN
AFTERNOON MAXS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAY DROP TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO. OTHERWISE TEMPS IN GENERAL WILL REMAIN VERY CLOSE OR
RIGHT AT CLIMO VALUES.


&&

[WindRunner]

93L models:
-model image-

INTENSITY:
GFS {18Z): 24 KTS
SHIP: 47 KTS
NAM (18Z): 28 KTS
GFDL (18Z): 28 KTS
RGEM (18Z): 40 KTS
NGPS (18Z}: 25 KTS (init)

Aaron
IPR
Podweather

Where is the GFS intensity forecast coming from? Isn't that SHIPS/DSHP?

[Weatherfreak14]

so some of the models show development and some don't. Thats my take on it. If Im wrong pease anyone correct me.


And now looking at the sat. there are some thunderstorm activity in the vicinity of the low pressure area.

[TampaFl]

FSU MM5 Tropical Prediction Run:
Shows low moving over Fl.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/slp.html



Robert