when will this 2006 storm season get more active???
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when will this 2006 storm season get more active???
so far this 2006 storm season has been dead and slow but I am getting kind of bored with this 2006 storm season can someone please tell me when its going to get more active and why too???thanks
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- cycloneye
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Please for the members.If you dont have anything to say about Wills question other than joking please dont post here.
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There seems to be a lot of dry air and upper level lows in the Atlantic
Basin so far this year. But those unfavorable conditions have
fit climatological norms thusfar. However, as we head into
mid-to-late August and especially into September...activity is forecasted
by Dr. Gray, the primary hurricane expert, to pick up considerably
and churn out about a dozen or so additional storms.
I expect that activity will pick up quite rapidly very soon, over
the next few days and especially over the next 10 days.
It's going to get busy IMO and also according to Dr. Gray
within the next 1-2 months, starting in 3-5 days IMO.
A developing El Nino is possible into October, which may allow
the season to quiet down during October and November--> I
make this statement with moderate confidence.
Basin so far this year. But those unfavorable conditions have
fit climatological norms thusfar. However, as we head into
mid-to-late August and especially into September...activity is forecasted
by Dr. Gray, the primary hurricane expert, to pick up considerably
and churn out about a dozen or so additional storms.
I expect that activity will pick up quite rapidly very soon, over
the next few days and especially over the next 10 days.
It's going to get busy IMO and also according to Dr. Gray
within the next 1-2 months, starting in 3-5 days IMO.
A developing El Nino is possible into October, which may allow
the season to quiet down during October and November--> I
make this statement with moderate confidence.
Last edited by Tampa Bay Hurricane on Sun Aug 13, 2006 8:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- southerngale
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- hurricanedude
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The MJO wet phase is approaching the East Pacific and soon will be in the tropical Atlantic and we should see an upswing in ativity once this occurs in 2 weeks. Will green lines are wet,brown is dry.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/g ... thly_1.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/g ... thly_1.gif
Last edited by boca on Sun Aug 13, 2006 8:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- hurricanedude
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Later this month… lulls are common in every season, including 2005. There was a lull, or “quiet” period, between the formation of Tropical Storm Irene and Jose last year. The current pattern we are experiencing right now is nothing unusual. In fact, we are actually some what above average this season.
Also, the same, without a doubt, can be said for the 2004 season… same with 2003: there was a lull, or “quiet” period I should say, between the formation of Erika and Fabian of that year.
So, just give it some time, and we should see more activity.
Also, the same, without a doubt, can be said for the 2004 season… same with 2003: there was a lull, or “quiet” period I should say, between the formation of Erika and Fabian of that year.
So, just give it some time, and we should see more activity.
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Yes it is normal (though 3 storms this year already is slightly above normal for the date), but in 2004 the season got started on July 31 with Alex, then quicly followed with Bonnie & Charley. Not saying this will be like the 2004 season, but IMHO, I think the season will soon "ramp" up in the next week or two.
Robert.
Robert.

Last edited by TampaFl on Sun Aug 13, 2006 8:25 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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- Tampa Bay Hurricane
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willjnewton wrote:so you all are saying that this is normal for it too be this quiet for this 2006 storm season like the calm before the storm and we could still have a above average season for 2006???
Yes. For right now the quietness is about normal or even
slightly above normal with 3-4 storms. But the activity should
pick up. Yes this is the calm before the storm, before the big
storms IMO with all those very high SSTs in the Central Atlantic
Caribbean and especially in the GOM.
In fact, many areas of the GOM could support sub-890 mb
intensity storms (strong Category 5 170-190 mph winds)
and a small pocket in the Southeastern GOM could support sub-880
mb storms:
This map is quite scary for hurricane prone areas:
http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL
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Re: when will this 2006 storm season get more active???
willjnewton wrote:so far this 2006 storm season has been dead and slow but I am getting kind of bored with this 2006 storm season can someone please tell me when its going to get more active and why too???thanks
Hey Will, I wonder the same thing buddy. I think it's just a waiting game right now. There's still alot of shear and dry air out there. Everytime I think a storm is going to develop, dry air and shear prevents that from happening. It's really hard to say if it's going to get going this year or not. We can point to previous seasons where it DID get going, but that doesn't mean this season will do the same thing. I like tracking storms too and would absolutely LOVE some fish storms, but starting to get skeptical.
Dusty
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