a question for the pro mets and experts

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WindRunner
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#21 Postby WindRunner » Sun Aug 13, 2006 8:21 pm

miamicanes177 wrote:This quote is from Professional Met Aslkahuna and can be found in the thread below. This thread still contains useful and relevant information. http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 98#1410998
Aslkahuna wrote:It depends very much where the axis of the trough sets up and its orientation. If the axis is along the coast and the tilt is positive then the storms will be pushed out to sea. A negative tilt might enhance the chances of New England but not by much. If the axis is inland and the tilt is neutral to negative then the East Coast could be at risk. There are other factors as well such as amplitude and whether or not a shortwave is coming down into the mean trough position which can change the tilt and windflow direction on the front side of the trough. In 1995, a persistent trough in the East pretty much shielded the East Coast. In 1938, a deep trough drew the Long Island Express north and accelerated it into New England for their worse hit in modern history.

Steve


Please read the thread in that link will, that contains the best answer that anyone can give right now.
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willjnewton

#22 Postby willjnewton » Sun Aug 13, 2006 8:22 pm

are conditions right for east coast storms from the carolina's to new england by the trough's, boca or the east coast is currently safe for the rest of this 2006 hurricane season???
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#23 Postby hurricanedude » Sun Aug 13, 2006 8:24 pm

east coast is as vulnerable as anyone..no one is safe until Dec1st
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#24 Postby boca » Sun Aug 13, 2006 8:24 pm

Will read my post on the 1st page of this thread about the MJO.
Last edited by boca on Sun Aug 13, 2006 8:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#25 Postby hurricanedude » Sun Aug 13, 2006 8:25 pm

sorry to answer your question...conditions are right for anyone right now to get a storm..give it a week, i bet you dinner things will change
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willjnewton

#26 Postby willjnewton » Sun Aug 13, 2006 8:31 pm

but based on the high pressure ridging as of right now and the trough's and the steering current patterns what do you all think about for landfalls for this season??? based on those please explain thanks
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#27 Postby hurricanedude » Sun Aug 13, 2006 8:34 pm

if things stayed exactly as they are..the season would be very limited...as of right now...and thats your question....as for the future..only GOD knows..and he is the only expert
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#28 Postby boca » Sun Aug 13, 2006 8:39 pm

It depends on the storm location to where ever the high pressure is to where the trough is to dictate the storms direction.
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willjnewton

#29 Postby willjnewton » Sun Aug 13, 2006 8:40 pm

where is the trough and high pressure right now???and how will that affect storms and hurricanes???
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#30 Postby boca » Sun Aug 13, 2006 8:42 pm

his should answer your question.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html
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#31 Postby boca » Sun Aug 13, 2006 8:44 pm

Sorry my computer,can someone please fix that.
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#32 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 13, 2006 8:46 pm

boca wrote:Sorry my computer,can someone please fix that.


Triple posts gone. :)
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willjnewton

#33 Postby willjnewton » Sun Aug 13, 2006 8:49 pm

okay you all may lock this threaD
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#34 Postby george_r_1961 » Sun Aug 13, 2006 9:06 pm

boca wrote:If a storm is to threaten the Carolinas up to New England the trough needs to be aligned inland from the coast along with the bermuda high positioned along 30N producing a SE flow pushing a system northward or NNW along the coast just like Isabel in 2003.


Exactly. Alot of ppl that September saw the cold front and incorrectly assumed that Isabel was going to be repelled out to sea. To this day I remember looking at the steering currents a few days before landfall and realizing that we were in BIG trouble :eek:
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#35 Postby Dustin » Sun Aug 13, 2006 9:23 pm

willjnewton wrote:wheres the PM box???


http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/privmsg.php?folder=inbox
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#36 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Sun Aug 13, 2006 9:33 pm

willjnewton wrote:but based on the high pressure ridging as of right now and the trough's and the steering current patterns what do you all think about for landfalls for this season??? based on those please explain thanks


If your trying to get someone to endorse your "GOM only" concept, your not going to find that person here. As has been stated time and time again NO ONE KNOWS FOR SURE. With that stated however I'll put my faith in Dr. Gray, and other experts, who are doing ground breaking research into steering current predictors. Their research points to a more East Coast setup this season. Look at Alberto and Beryl, it is already coming true, both storms had Northerly and Easterly components to their tracks. As for Chris, he also had a further North track than the storms that formed in the same area at the same time last year.
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#37 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Sun Aug 13, 2006 9:37 pm

BTW This is the LAST TIME I WILL ANSWER THIS SAME QUESTION. It is only congesting the forum with repetitive, and thus useless, information and chatter.
Last edited by Hybridstorm_November2001 on Sun Aug 13, 2006 9:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#38 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 13, 2006 9:38 pm

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:BTW This is the LAST TIME I WILL ANSWER THIS SAME QUESTION.


Check your PM Box.
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willjnewton

#39 Postby willjnewton » Sun Aug 13, 2006 9:39 pm

okay as I said before you may lock this threaD
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