Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Ex 94L)

[OURAGAN]

Strong Wave off the coast off Africa:

A DEVELOPING MID LEVEL LOW IS MOVING OFF THE
COAST OF W AFRICA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM
10N-16N E OF 20W TO JUST INLAND OVER W AFRICA.

NRL Large Sat Image

[HenkL]

Starting end of the week a NASA DC8 airplane will investigate those waves.
See the Namma project.
Go to the tab 'Flight tracks' and find a 'Real time mission monitor' application for GoogleEarth.

[Frank2]

Thanks for letting us know - it sounds a one of those field projects from the 70s or 80s (I met Dr. Zipser more than once)...

Frank

[cycloneye]

12:00 UTC Full Disk Image

It looks impressive right now as it is fully splashing into the water.Now let's see if it survives the hurdles that it has to cross thru the Atlantic.

Interesting the project to study the waves in that part of the world.

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't think I'm going to mention that it has a chance to develop, because as soon as I do, the replies will be that it has too much shear and dry air around it to develop...

[Frank2]

cycloneye,

Your full disk link doesn't work...

Frank

[cycloneye]

cycloneye,

Your full disk link doesn't work...

Frank

Frank,here is the link to register to then see the images.Is a free register thing.

http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/registerql.html

[Thunder44]

It looks like a big one. It's getting to that time of year we have to start watching these Cape Verde systems more closely. I wonder if the next TWO will mention it.

[willjnewton]

I am NOT trying to be rude or anything but can someone show me a nice satelite imagery about this wave that will or is updated please??? thanks

[P.K.]

This appears to be up as 94L on the NRL page. Nothing on the FNMOC page though.

[Thunder44]

94L Invest is going up for this wave on NRL.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[OURAGAN]

30 Knots/1008 mb already

[SouthFloridawx]

I'm not going to bother paying attention to it.... everytime I get into these waves they just fizzle.

If you look on the CIMSS site, the Graphic that shows the SAL Layer indicates a much less dust in front of this wave. This may be an indicator of more potential for this particular wave than the others.

[Hyperstorm]

The tropical wave/low pressure system that just moved offshore Africa has a very well-defined low-mid level signature associated with it. Thunderstorms blossomed over the coast last night and have since moved offshore, while expanding. While the wave itself is not the most impressive system to come off the coast of Africa this year, its classic pre-developmental signature discovers it.

There are several things that will go for this system to do something...

1) Limited amounts of subsidence in the region. The vigorous signature associated with the previous disturbance that moved off Africa a couple of days ago has moistened up the atmosphere at least in the mid-upper levels near Cape Verde.

2) Upper-level winds climatologically favorable. This time of year this area tends to have one of the lowest shear levels in the basin.

3) Well-defined mid-level signature with convection. This helps develop low pressure if there is persistence.

Having said that, there are things which would delay or halt any significant development of this system...

1) Location of the system. The wave system is already near 12-15N, which will not help this system with the current average SSTs across the basin.

2) Upper-level low pressure system NW of the Cape Verde Islands. This could do two things. It could deteriorate the signature of this system over the next 48 hours or (if it somehow manages to become more vertically stacked) steer it in a more WNW direction toward even cooler waters.

Right now, the key of development factor will be PERSISTENCE. If convection manages to persist TODAY and we see some re-development of intense (orange/red) convection over the water, then we will surely know there is a little bugger trying to stir everything up.

Right now, while there is a slightly above average chance of it persisting based on the favorable factors already mentioned, the negative factors would cause development (if any) in the short term to be very slow...

[P.K.]

The latest MetArea bulletin. I've taken the other areas out. I know it says the northern coast of Mauritania and it is just to the south but it looks to be the same low.

Weather bulletin for METAREA 2, METEO-FRANCE,
Toulouse, Monday 14 August 2006 at 09 UTC.

- Wind speed in BEAUFORT SCALE - Sea : Total significant -
- Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger
than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice
the significant height.

Part 1 : WARNING : none

Part 2 : General synopsis, Monday 14 at 00 UTC

Thundery low 1013 35N28W, slow-moving and deepening, expeccted 1008
by 15/12UTC.
Low 1001 over Denmark, slow-moving and deepening, expected 998 by
15/12UTC.
New low expected 1003 55N9W by 15/12UTC, then slowly moving south.
High 1032 54N31W slow-moving.


Shallow low 1009 expected near northern coasts of Mauritania by
14/06 UTC.
Tropical wave along 26W south of 17N moving west 15 kt.
ITCZ along 12N14W 12N24W 08N41.


Part 3 : Area forecasts to Tuesday 15 at 12 UTC

SIERRA LEONE :
Cyclonic 3 to 5, mainly Southwesterly in south. Moderate.
Thundersqualls with severe gusts.
in south.

Part 4 : outlook for next ## hours :

Northerly near gale, with threat of gale, expected in ROMEO.
Threat of Southwesterly near gale in FINISTERRE.
Threat of Cyclonic gale in AÇORES.
Elesewhere, no dangerous phenomenom expected.

[cycloneye]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942006) ON 20060814 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060814 1200 060815 0000 060815 1200 060816 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.9N 17.5W 12.5N 20.6W 13.5N 23.6W 14.9N 26.3W
BAMM 11.9N 17.5W 12.8N 20.3W 14.0N 23.2W 15.8N 25.9W
A98E 11.9N 17.5W 12.8N 21.4W 13.5N 25.0W 14.3N 28.3W
LBAR 11.9N 17.5W 13.2N 21.3W 15.1N 25.1W 17.3N 28.5W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 50KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060816 1200 060817 1200 060818 1200 060819 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.5N 28.6W 19.1N 32.0W 21.1N 33.2W 22.9N 32.9W
BAMM 17.8N 28.4W 20.9N 31.6W 23.0N 33.2W 24.8N 34.0W
A98E 15.0N 31.1W 16.3N 36.2W 17.1N 40.9W 18.0N 45.4W
LBAR 19.7N 31.0W 23.7N 31.8W 25.7N 30.0W 27.4N 28.2W
SHIP 53KTS 56KTS 49KTS 42KTS
DSHP 53KTS 56KTS 49KTS 42KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.9N LONCUR = 17.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 10.8N LONM12 = 13.5W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 10.1N LONM24 = 9.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Thunder44]

Nice Sat Image for willjnewton:

[storms in NC]

This one will be like the rest of them. There just is to much shear and dry air and the ull's out there that just likes to kill them. If we had a year like last year then yes it would stand a good chance to development. But not this year. I think when we do get a storm it will be homegrown and not CV. JMO

[Frank2]

Look at those forecast lat/lons - it will recurve very early, according to that NHC run...

Frank

[cycloneye]

Yes Frank,is a good candidate for this