Invest 93L,SE Carolinas,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[storms in NC]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
330 AM EDT MON AUG 14 2006

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BECOME ELONGATED DURING
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. EXTREMELY DRY AIR ABOVE 850 MB WILL
SEVERELY HAMPER CLOUD AND PRECIP DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
ALONG WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR...00Z SOUNDINGS FROM STATIONS
UPSTREAM SHOW A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE. SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY
WITH BELOW CLIMO TEMPERATURES TODAY REBOUNDING TO NEAR CLIMO ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON WEDNESDAY. LATEST GFS/CANADIAN TIMING FRONT [b][b]INTO THE ILM CWA
WEDNESDAY EVENING OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ANTICIPATE [/b][/b]CONVECTION
DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT...IMPACTING THE CWA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. INHERITED CHANCE POPS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
MOS POPS BUT STILL SEEM VERY REASONABLE. FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
AREA THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE COAST. EXPECT A
SCENARIO SIMILAR TO MOST RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH TEMPERATURES
BELOW TO NEAR CLIMO AND NEAR CLIMO PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

[DROliver]

From:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
733 AM EDT MON AUG 14 2006


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ATTENTION BEING GIVEN FOR FURTHER POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE STATE. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT IS FORECAST
TO CREEP TOWARD THE GEORGIA WATERS BY WED. MARINE WINDS AND SEAS
TO RESPOND ACCORDINGLY WITH MARINERS URGED TO KEEP ABREAST OF THE
LATEST FORECAST. LOWER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING MID WEEK EDGING
UPWARD TOWARD CLIMO BY LATE WEEK.

[Weatherfreak14]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
400 AM EDT MON AUG 14 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE GEORGIA COASTAL ZONES THIS MORNING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NOTICEABLE SWATH OF DRY AIR ALOFT
STREAMING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM THE NORTH. MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS DRY AIR AT UPPER AND MID LEVELS
FILTERING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST SC AND GA THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED LACKING NORMAL
SUMMERTIME MOISTURE. SEABREEZE WILL LIKELY REAPPEAR THIS AFTERNOON
SINCE MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
WITHIN THE INLAND AREAS. DOUBTFUL THAT THE SEABREEZE WILL BE ENOUGH
TO SPARK CONVECTION IN SUCH A DRY ATMOSPHERE. GFS SOUNDINGS FOR KCHS
INDICATE PWAT VALUES DOWN TO 1.5 INCHES AND CAPES LOWER THAN 500
J/KG. SLIGHTLY HIGHER PWATS AND CAPES ARE SEEN IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE CWA...BUT STILL SEEMS INSUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE
MENTIONABLE POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL THUS
CONTINUE DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY.

MODELS DIVERGE ON TUESDAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW SYSTEM OFF
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. GFS MAINTAINS A WESTERLY TRACK THAN THE
NAM...WHICH BRINGS THE MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM FURTHER EAST TO THE
FLORIDA/GEORGIA COASTLINE. EITHER WAY...BOTH NAM AND GFS KEEP THE
FORECAST AREA IN A SLOT OF DRY AIR BETWEEN THIS LOW TO THE EAST AND
A FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST. WITH SUCH LOW INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...AS WELL AS A LACK OF FORCING EXCEPT FOR THE
SEABREEZE...WILL GO WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING AND MAINTAIN
ANOTHER DRY DAY ON TUESDAY. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE...AND HIGHS
WILL RISE TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND.

A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS. 00Z MET AND MAV GUIDANCE ARE KEEPING POPS
AROUND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE CWA. 00Z HPC QPF GRAPHICS PLACES THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP AROUND...BUT NOT INCLUDING...SOUTHEAST SC AND
GA. SEEMS LIKE THE MAIN CONSENSUS IS TO NOT JUMP ON ANY ONE SOLUTION
YET...UNTIL LOW SYSTEM FURTHER DEVELOPS. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE ON
THE INCREASE MID WEEK REGARDLESS OF THE DETAILS...AND THERE WILL BE
ADDITIONAL FORCING IN THE VICINITY COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
WILL GO AHEAD AND INCREASE POPS TO LOW CHANCE TO REPRESENT THESE
TRENDS.
&&.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST THIS MORNING.

[storms in NC]

looks like guessing to me. Maybe they will get a hold on it soon if it does any thing

[jdray]

000
FXUS62 KJAX 140650
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
250 AM EDT MON AUG 14 2006

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
THE FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. WATER VAPOR LOOP
SHOWS NLY FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF TROUGH HAS BROUGHT STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT WELL EAST OF CENTRAL FL.

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHERE THE SFC LOW WILL
TRACK. GFS TAKES IT NWD TO NEAR THE OUTER BANKS ON WED. THE NAM
HAS SHIFTED AND NOW BRINGS THE LOW NWWD TO GA COAST LATE WED.
THINK THE NAM IS TOO STRONG WITH THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER IT IS
SIMILAR TO UKMET AND WILL LEAN TO THIS SOLN FOR MID WEEK.

MON/TUE...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE OFFSHORE AND THIS WILL BRING
AN ONSHORE FLOW TO THE AREA...WHICH WILL KEEP THE COASTAL COUNTIES
A BIT COOLER THAN INLAND. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S AT THE
BEACHES AND REACH LOW/MID 90S INLAND. MIN TEMPS CONTINUE IN THE
70S. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT POPS. BEST CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE THE WRN PORTION OF OUR FL ZONES. BY TUESDAY A NELY FLOW
WILL PUSH CONVECTION TO THE SRN PORTION...MAINLY SOUTH OF GNV.
STILL THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE 20-30% IN FL AND 10-20% IN GA.

WED...WILL CAP POPS AT 30% FOR ENTIRE AREA DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF
WHERE THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK. IF IT DOES MOVE TO THE GA COAST...
WILL NEED TO BUMP POPS UPWARD...BUT WILL WAIT FOR LATE MODEL RUN
BEFORE MAKING THAT DECISION. A BLEND OF MOS TEMPS YIELDS LOWER
90S...BUT COULD BE COOLER IF THE NE TO NORTH FLOW PANS OUT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
TOO SOON TO MAKE ANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO CURRENT FCST. GFS INSISTS
THAT A LLVL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE ATLANTIC WATERS
EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AS IF IT CANNOT DECIDE WHAT TO DO WITH IT.
DGEX SHOWS A SIMILAR PATTERN BUT ALSO BRINGS A LOW ACROSS N FL ON
THURSDAY. GFDL INDICATES A LOW WILL MOVE IN SC COAST THU MORNING.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP STATUS QUO WITH TEMPS NEAR CLIMO OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AND 30% CHANCE POPS.

[Nimbus]

This morning all the convection is still on the northeast side of 93L a little east of 75 which may just indicate it is still cold core. The models have initialized further south however most of the eastern initialized models take 93L out to sea without a landfall on the continental US. Depends on where the warm core develops apparently.

[brunota2003]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
359 AM EDT MON AUG 14 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH TUE WITH SLOWLY INCREASING SLY FLOW TONIGHT AS THE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD AND A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MOS A
BIT AGGRESSIVE ON MAX TEMPS YDA AND FEEL IT MAY BE TDA AS WELL. 00Z
KMHX H85 TEMP OF 13C BROUGHT AN ADIABATIC TEMP OF 83F AT SFC WHICH
WAS RIGHT ON WITH 82-84F MAX TEMPS AROUND THE REGION. USED THAT
TECHNIQUE FOR TDA USING THE NAM WHICH INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE
GFS...AND GAVE AN 86F TEMP. A FEW DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING ON
TUE ACTUALLY MATCHED UP WELL WITH MOS GUIDANCE AND GENERALLY STUCK
NEAR MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...A FEW MODEL
DIFFERENCES MID WEEK WITH THE WEAK FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
AS WELL AS A SFC LOW CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THE 00Z NAM
BRINGS THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL NC AND SE VA AND WASHES IT OUT
BEFORE GETTING TO OUR CWA AND MOVES THE SFC LOW INTO GA LATE WED
BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO THE REGION. THE
00Z GFS LIFTS THE SFC LOW TO OFF THE NC COAST TUE NIGHT WHICH
MERGES WITH THE SFC FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST ON WED. BOTH
SOLUTIONS BRING INCREASED FLOW OFF THE OCEAN INTO THE REGION TUE
NIGHT SO INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUE NIGHT AND WITH THE
FRONT...ONSHORE FLOW AND POSSIBLE A SFC LOW NEARBY ON WED WENT
CHANCE POPS WED AND WED EVE. KEPT CHANCE POPS THU WITH
BOUNDARY NEARBY BUT SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH THU NIGHT
AND GENERALLY KEPT FCST DRY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...WITH RELATIVE DRY AIRMASS OVER THE RGN STILL EXPECTING
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EARLY THIS MRNG LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF GROUND
FOG WHICH MAY REDUCE VSBYS IN SMALL AREAS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
TIME TO AS LOW AS 1 MILE.

&&

.MARINE...SFC HI SITTING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ATTM WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TODAY AS SFC TROF DVLPS INLAND AND UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SE AND S TODAY
AND TONIGHT THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF TUES.
GFS AND NAM FAIRLY CLOSE WILL SOLUTIONS EARLY ON IN FORECAST BUT
THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY LATE TUE INTO WED. GFS DVLPS A LOW OFF FL
THEN BRINGS IT NORTH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE WED.
MEANWHILE NAM DVLPS THIS LOW AND BRINGS IT MORE NW INTO THE LOWER
SC COAST BY LATE WED/WED EVNG. GFS ALSO MORE AGGRESSIVE DROPPING A
SFC FNT INTO THE AND ACROSS THE WATERS BY THURSDAY WHILE NAM KEEPS
THIS FNT TO THE NORTH OF THE RGN IN RESPONSE TO MID LVL AND SFC
LOW OVER SC THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHER GLOBAL MODELS ARE A BIT CLOSER
TO THE NAM SO WILL LEAN MORE THIS WAY FOR WED AND THURSDAY. FNT
SHOULD FINALLY MOVE THROUGH BY LATE FRI WITH WINDS BECOMING
NORTHERLY AGAIN.

GFS SOLUTION THIS WEEK WOULD LEAD TO INCREASED WINDS FROM THE N
AND NE BY WED AND THURSDAY WITH WW3 GUIDANCE INDICATING BUILDING
SEAS ON THURSDAY INTO THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE. WITH NAM SOLUTION
PREFERRED WILL CAP SEAS AT 5 FT FOR THURSDAY AND SHOW A GRADUAL
BUILD UP TO THIS ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS MORE E TO SE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AS WELL UNTIL LATE FRI.

IF THIS LOW TO THE SOUTH BECOMES MORE TROPICAL IN NATURE AND SHOWS
BETTER SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS FORECAST WILL
LIKELY BE ALTERED QUITE A BIT. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS CLOSELY. FOR NOW HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN MARINE
FORECAST BEYOND EARLY WED.

[Nimbus]

Highest cloud tops were further south at sunrise.

http://img151.imageshack.us/img151/5431 ... gfsqe8.jpg

[cycloneye]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932006) ON 20060814 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060814 1200 060815 0000 060815 1200 060816 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.5N 74.5W 28.5N 75.0W 29.5N 75.8W 30.7N 76.7W
BAMM 28.5N 74.5W 28.7N 74.6W 29.7N 75.2W 31.0N 75.5W
A98E 28.5N 74.5W 28.2N 73.6W 28.7N 73.6W 29.8N 73.8W
LBAR 28.5N 74.5W 28.2N 74.0W 28.7N 74.0W 29.4N 74.2W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 32KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060816 1200 060817 1200 060818 1200 060819 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 31.6N 77.7W 32.1N 79.4W 30.7N 81.9W 29.3N 85.4W
BAMM 32.3N 76.0W 33.6N 76.5W 32.7N 77.6W 31.3N 80.6W
A98E 30.9N 74.6W 31.7N 75.3W 31.7N 75.8W 31.0N 77.7W
LBAR 30.2N 74.4W 31.9N 74.8W 34.9N 73.2W 39.0N 71.6W
SHIP 37KTS 45KTS 46KTS 43KTS
DSHP 37KTS 45KTS 46KTS 43KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 28.5N LONCUR = 74.5W DIRCUR = 120DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 29.1N LONM12 = 75.7W DIRM12 = 121DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 30.5N LONM24 = 77.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


12:00z Models for 93L.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Well with two cold fronts, and their accompanying short waves forecast to erode the Western part of the Ridge later this week. I can certainly see a Northward, or even Northeastward bend to this storm track late in the week. That is of course if ANYTHING DEVELOPS AT ALL.

[tailgater]

From 8:05 TWD
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE FAR E US AND W ATLC N OF 28N W
OF 65W. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR
32N55W THROUGH A WEAK 1014 MB LOW NEAR 29N63W TO A WELL
ESTABLISHED 1012 MB LOW NEAR 29N75W CONTINUING W ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
Also looks like another weak low trying to form near 27.9N 77.8W

[O Town]

[sunnyday]

This one seems like much ado about nothing just like the previous ones this year. Maybe, we need to get another hobby. There's little weather to watch so far this season. Yes, things may change, but I have a strange feeling that this will be a fairly quiet one.

[Extremeweatherguy]

these models seem to be initializing the system too far east.

[Extremeweatherguy]

From the NWS in Houston disco:

MEANWHILE A MID/UPPER LOW IS DEVELOPED EAST
OF FLORIDA TODAY AND TUESDAY THEN MOVES WEST ACROSS THE GULF
UNDERNEATH THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH.

[Stormcenter]

This one seems like much ado about nothing just like the previous ones this year. Maybe, we need to get another hobby. There's little weather to watch so far this season. Yes, things may change, but I have a strange feeling that this will be a fairly quiet one.

I hope you are right.

[Nimbus]

I wonder if that is the low level center forming on floater 2? Some convection beginning to wrap.

[Thunder44]

I wonder if that is the low level center forming on floater 2? Some convection beginning to wrap.

Yes, there looks to be a broad LLC forming just north of Grand Bahama and moving southward on visible imagery and looking at some surface obs around that area. It would be in a more favorable area of upper-level winds to develop.

[KatDaddy]

Hey Thunder44 I see that also but have not had time to verify if its a surface relfection. I am sure wxman57 will chime in with his valuable input. On thing for sure its moving S.

[Thunder44]

Look at the surface plots along the Florida coast and offshore. Freeport in the Bahamas is reporting west wind. You see it shows a low-level circulation. I'm guessing the pressure is around 1015mb.

Edit-- link removed

Jeff Masters also mentions this in his blog today:

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/ ... amp=200608