Invest 93L,SE Carolinas,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[OuterBanker]

To me it seems that all from Fla to NC need to watch (just for interest so far). Really wouldn't mind it comming our way because we need the rain. On the other hand it can't come our way, the big Pirates Cove Billfish tournament is this week (we are involved). Purse 1.4 mil, 1st place 600k. On second thought, Fla can have it

[rockyman]

This morning looks a little more ominous for the Gulf Coast...Yesterday we were all talking about a system forming around 30N...now we're talking 27N and moving south...this opens up a better possibility of this moving in the Gomex...

Here's the steering flow for a weak system right now:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[beachbum_al]

To me it seems that all from Fla to NC need to watch (just for interest so far). Really wouldn't mind it comming our way because we need the rain. On the other hand it can't come our way, the big Pirates Cove Billfish tournament is this week (we are involved). Purse 1.4 mil, 1st place 600k. On second thought, Fla can have it

Good Luck on the billfish tournament! We have a big weekend here too and I am praying nothing comes up into the Gulf. This the weekend of Thunder on the Gulf.

http://www.thunderonthegulf.com/

[Thunder44]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on August 14, 2006


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
A broad surface low pressure area is located from just north of the
northwestern Bahamas and extends northeastward over thr Atlantic
for a few hundred miles. A new circulation center is showing signs
of developing just north of the Bahamas...while the one farther to
the northeast is becoming less organized. Some slow development of
this system is possible over the next couple of days as it remains
nearly stationary. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow...if necessary.

Forecaster brown/Stewart

[Extremeweatherguy]

This morning looks a little more ominous for the Gulf Coast...Yesterday we were all talking about a system forming around 30N...now we're talking 27N and moving south...this opens up a better possibility of this moving in the Gomex...

Here's the steering flow for a weak system right now:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

I agree. The closer this thing develops to Florida, the more likely it is to cross over and become a Gulf threat due to the strong ridge to the north. Another bad thing is that since it is already at a higher latitude, it WILL likely be a U.S. issue if it forms into anything significant.

[beachbum_al]

A broad surface low pressure area is located from just north of the
northwestern Bahamas and extends northeastward over thr Atlantic
for a few hundred miles. A new circulation center is showing signs
of developing just north of the Bahamas...while the one farther to
the northeast is becoming less organized

So does this mean it has a chance of making it to the Gulf since the new formation is further south now? (Please say no and it will go out to sea!)

[storms in NC]

With the high in the gulf and the high to the east it would go between the the highs as the front comes though. Where is any ones guess. But I do beleave that it would become a TD if not a TS. Just for the fact of the gulf stream.JMO

[rockyman]

The steering flow off the east coast of Florida has reversed in the past 24 hours...

24 hours ago (system would move NE):
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... lm1-8.html

Now (system would move south):
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[Stormcenter]

Yes the area east of Florida is definitely looking interesting this morning.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

The steering flow off the east coast of Florida has reversed in the past 24 hours...

24 hours ago (system would move NE):
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... lm1-8.html

Now (system would move south):
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

Yes, I think it is clear this is and will continue moving south today followed by a more westward and then WNW track in the future.

[Brent]

This one looks interesting...

[rockyman]

Navy is still tracking 28.5/74.5

If you look at their storm-centered satellite shots, you'll see the new center off to the west side of the screen

Link

*edited by staff to make the link a hyperlink because it was so long - had to scroll to read each line on the page

[SouthFloridawx]

The steering flow off the east coast of Florida has reversed in the past 24 hours...

24 hours ago (system would move NE):
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... lm1-8.html

Now (system would move south):
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

Yes, I think it is clear this is and will continue moving south today followed by a more westward and then WNW track in the future.

Even if you look at the low to mid level it still south. I would be interested to see if it moves south then east then back to the W to NW eventually. It would appear to be in some weak steering currents and stationary to slow moving is going to be likely for the next couple of days.

[Nimbus]

So much for the models! Down came the rain and washed the spider out.

Now I wonder what the models would do with a TD initialized in the Bahamas?

[Damar91]

Isn't this kind of what Jeanne did?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Jeanne hit Haiti, then did a loop way out to sea and finally turned around and slammed FL. I remeber her well because I was on a cruise to the bahamas at the time. Nature was really on my side! I don't think I saw a drop of rain that entire trip.

[rockyman]

still looks like a little westerly shear...but storms are starting to fire near this new center...I'm guessing this center might reform a couple of times while it's getting organized...if I had to bet where the next reformation would occur, I'd say to the SE of the newly forming one.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Eventually this baby should be kicked on North, or even Northeastward in the long term. Due to a couple of fronts coming in from the West around the mean Trough late in the period. No one knows for sure however, should be an interesting one to watch that much is certain though.

[rockyman]

This shear map clearly shows the "pocket" of favorable conditions...with shear values higher to the north and south:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

Be thankful this is not in the Gulf (at least not yet)...shear values are perfect for major development (less than 5 knots for the entire middle part of the Gomex).

[storms in NC]

Eventually this baby should be kicked on North, or even Northeastward in the long term. Due to a couple of fronts coming in from the West around the mean Trough late in the period. No one knows for sure however, should be an interesting one to watch that much is certain though.

This is what I think to. But will come close to the east coast and ride it then out to sea. JMO