Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Ex 94L)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Weatherfreak14
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1383
Joined: Sat Sep 24, 2005 3:40 pm
Location: Beaufort, SC
Contact:
Contact Weatherfreak14

#81 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Mon Aug 14, 2006 11:23 am

Yeah hopefully. Last thing we need here on our coast now is beach erosion from a fish storm. Im too worried about the one off my coast now.

Oh well nice swell to surf on. Sometimes thats the only thing I wane hurricanes for is waves.
0 likes   
Top
Frank2
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4061
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:47 pm

#82 Postby Frank2 » Mon Aug 14, 2006 11:23 am

I don't think that's correct - the GFS has constantly moved the ridge eastward, and builds a substantial quasi-stationary trough off the east coast of the U.S., by early next week...

Frank
0 likes   
Top
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34093
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#83 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 14, 2006 11:24 am

Damar91 wrote:Any record of a storm forming this far out and making it all the way to the CON US?


I don't think so. The general path at that point sends them fishing.

Had TS Christine had a better environment it very well could have (and been a major storm).
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Weatherfreak14
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1383
Joined: Sat Sep 24, 2005 3:40 pm
Location: Beaufort, SC
Contact:
Contact Weatherfreak14

#84 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Mon Aug 14, 2006 11:24 am

Please dont say that.
0 likes   
Top
Frank2
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4061
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:47 pm

#85 Postby Frank2 » Mon Aug 14, 2006 11:25 am

Just to let all know - a storm that forms that far east, at that latitude, usually recurves very early, and, is why the TWO mentions a WNW or even NW motion...

Frank
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5201
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

#86 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Aug 14, 2006 11:27 am

Frank2 wrote:I don't think that's correct - the GFS has constantly moved the ridge eastward, and builds a substantial quasi-stationary trough off the east coast of the U.S., by early next week...

Frank


keep in mind that ALOT can change that will keep this storm from being a fish. It's happened time and time again....
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Cyclenall
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6667
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:01 pm
Location: Ontario, Canada

#87 Postby Cyclenall » Mon Aug 14, 2006 11:27 am

This is a very impressive invest. When the NHC starts talking about how it could be a depression before reaching the CV islands, you know this has a good shot. I'd say it has a much better chance at becoming a depression then many others this year.

I wonder, how did the NHC find out if a system right off Africa was a depression or not during the 1970's or even 1960's?
0 likes   
Top
Frank2
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4061
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:47 pm

#88 Postby Frank2 » Mon Aug 14, 2006 11:29 am

Yes, but, a storm that forms that high in latitude east of the Cape Verde islands is more than likely (probably about 9 out of 10 systems) to recurve very early - due to the spin of the Earth, more than any weather system...

Frank

P.S. A record might be set, if warnings need to be issued for Cape Verde Islands - I don't think it's happened since Frances (1980)...
Last edited by Frank2 on Mon Aug 14, 2006 11:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Weatherfreak14
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1383
Joined: Sat Sep 24, 2005 3:40 pm
Location: Beaufort, SC
Contact:
Contact Weatherfreak14

#89 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Mon Aug 14, 2006 11:30 am

Frank2 wrote:Yes, but, a storm that forms that high in latitude east of the Cape Verde islands is more than likely (about 90%) to recurve very early - due to the spin of the Earth, more than any weather system...

Frank


I was about to say that. It would recurve over time.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5201
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

#90 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Aug 14, 2006 11:32 am

Frank2 wrote:Yes, but, a storm that forms that high in latitude east of the Cape Verde islands is more than likely (probably about 9 out of 10 systems) to recurve very early - due to the spin of the Earth, more than any weather system...

Frank

P.S. A record might be set, if warnings need to be issued for Cape Verde Islands - I don't think it's happened since Frances (1980)...



very true, but if it stays weak and doesn't develop, this may not be the case as far as curvature is concerned.
0 likes   
Top
miamicanes177
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1131
Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 10:53 pm

#91 Postby miamicanes177 » Mon Aug 14, 2006 11:34 am

NHC can not and will not upgrade this until they have proof of a closed LLC.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5201
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

#92 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Aug 14, 2006 11:34 am

with that said, I hope it DOES recurve, because you just KNOW there will be some very strong ones that DON'T recurve...so you want to get as many recurving as you can, because you just know it won't last.....
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
linkerweather
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 261
Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2005 5:59 am
Location: tampa bay area

#93 Postby linkerweather » Mon Aug 14, 2006 11:37 am

Damar91 wrote:Any record of a storm forming this far out and making it all the way to the CON US?


A few come to mind.

1938--LI express
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Englan ... ne_of_1938
1960-donna
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Donna_1960_track.png
1989-hugo
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Hugo_1989_track.png
1996-fran
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Fran
Last edited by linkerweather on Mon Aug 14, 2006 11:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
Frank2
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4061
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:47 pm

#94 Postby Frank2 » Mon Aug 14, 2006 11:37 am

NHC can not and will not upgrade this until they have proof of a closed LLC.


True, though they might upgrade it solely from satellite or ship observations, since the only land stations are in the path of the system - they wouldn't want to close the barn door after the horse has left...

Per an earlier thread, perhaps the NASA measuring flight is in that area today, and would be of great use at this time...

Frank
0 likes   
Top
Frank2
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4061
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:47 pm

#95 Postby Frank2 » Mon Aug 14, 2006 11:39 am

Still, the model runs forecast an early recurve...

Frank
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5201
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

#96 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Aug 14, 2006 11:44 am

Frank2 wrote:Still, the model runs forecast an early recurve...

Frank


good, let's move it quickly to cat 5 status then as soon as it passes the CV islands.... :lol:
0 likes   
Top
OuterBanker
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1750
Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2003 10:53 am
Location: Nags Head, NC
Contact:
Contact OuterBanker

#97 Postby OuterBanker » Mon Aug 14, 2006 11:47 am

Quite an impressive fish. In fact it is without a doubt the best looking tropical system this season and will be a true Cape Verde storm. But it will no doubt be a fish. I can't see it break the 20/50 rule. In fact with a nw movement it will break 20n before 40w.
0 likes   
Top
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34093
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#98 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 14, 2006 11:49 am

ConvergenceZone wrote:
Frank2 wrote:Still, the model runs forecast an early recurve...

Frank


good, let's move it quickly to cat 5 status then as soon as it passes the CV islands.... :lol:


Make sure it goes :fishing: before it gets anywhere near land...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5201
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

#99 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Aug 14, 2006 11:56 am

yep, I'm kinda excited, might actually have a potential strong storm to track, but I'm still in believe it until I see it mode, because of the other ones. .... :D
0 likes   
Top
whereverwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1109
Joined: Mon May 31, 2004 10:15 pm

#100 Postby whereverwx » Mon Aug 14, 2006 11:59 am

Watch this end up going poof later today. :wink: :lol:
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 23 guests