Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Ex 94L)

[crown]

Just to let all know - a storm that forms that far east, at that latitude, usually recurves very early, and, is why the TWO mentions a WNW or even NW motion...

Frank

While that is true, I've seen Hurricane Ivan form in the mid-Atlantic and every single six-hour forecast up to the time it west due west and hit Grenada say that it would track WNW or NW. Until then, I went with the rule of thumb but no longer.

[gatorcane]

this wave looks very good. Aug 15th starts the CV season. I give it an 80% chance of becoming Debby which will be right on time with what I said about Aug 20th +/- 3 days for Debby to form.

[Frank2]

Ivan was much different, however - it formed south of 10N...

Frank

[Scorpion]

I believe if it develops it could combat the SAL much better. It needs to develop now or it won't develop IMO.

[Stormhunter27]

Quick question.

Is the dust the greyish brown area that seems to be coming off the continent just north of the system? I tried to get a pic into this post, but call me dumb, I can't figure out how to get it to show up.

I'm just learning my satellite imagery stuff! (Sorry to drag things a little off topic)

Mark

[Derek Ortt]

good news

convection has really weakened with this wave during the past few hours

[Sanibel]

Looks like it is taking off rolling right off the coast.


We'll see if it is devoid of all convection in 12 hours.

[crown]

good news

convection has really weakened with this wave during the past few hours

You sure this is good news in the long term? The weaker the system the more it stays on a westward track unless there is a weakness in the ridge that pulls it northward

[miamicanes177]

Quick question.

Is the dust the greyish brown area that seems to be coming off the continent just north of the system? I tried to get a pic into this post, but call me dumb, I can't figure out how to get it to show up.

I'm just learning my satellite imagery stuff! (Sorry to drag things a little off topic)

Mark

you can see it in this link http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html

[ConvergenceZone]

good news

convection has really weakened with this wave during the past few hours

as I said earlier, the convection today will be gone tomorrow. I guess that's the norm...

[miamicanes177]

this is very good news. NEXT!

[Derek Ortt]

there is a fairly large trough to its NW

This is good news as this may lessen the impact to CV

[ConvergenceZone]

the only bad thing is that it means less chance for recurvature, as weak systems tend to go more westward, but we'll have to wait and see

[SouthFloridawx]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 141804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A VIGOROUS 1009MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS PRODUCING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND HEAVY SQUALLS BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KT
HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY. ALTHOUGH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
STILL FORM BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
TOMORROW. INTERESTS NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST
TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THREE SURFACE LOWS ARE ANALYZED ON THE 1200 UTC MAP ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ENE FROM THE SE FLORIDA COAST. THE
FIRST IS A 1013MB LOW JUST NORTH OF THE NW BAHAMAS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP NEAR THIS LOW TODAY FROM
26N-28N BETWEEN 77W-80W. ANOTHER CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
28N74W. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. THE THIRD LOW IS
ANALYZED NEAR 29N63W...BUT VERY LITTLE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SPINNING NEAR
25N71W. AN UPPER HIGH IS EXTENDING NORTH FROM HISPANIOLA INTO
THE ADJACENT ATLC WATERS. A DISTINCT UPPER LOW IS SEEN SPINNING
NEAR 23N51W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED JUST W OF THIS
UPPER LOW FROM 17N TO 30N BETWEEN 51W AND 58W. AN UPPER HIGH
REMAINS CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 20N19W AND
EXTENDS W TO NEAR 40W. A 1019MB SURFACE HIGH IS NEAR 26N47W.
MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH AND THE UPPER
HIGH OFF AFRICA IS EXPERIENCING DRY AIR/FAIR WEATHER...FROM 17N
TO 30N BETWEEN 20W AND 50W.
$$
WILLIS

[Scorpion]

Has the GFDL been run on 94L?

[SouthFloridawx]

Has the GFDL been run on 94L?

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

[miamicanes177]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942006) ON 20060814 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060814 1800 060815 0600 060815 1800 060816 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.6N 19.4W 13.8N 22.6W 15.3N 25.6W 16.9N 28.0W
BAMM 12.6N 19.4W 13.8N 22.3W 15.5N 25.2W 17.3N 27.7W
A98E 12.6N 19.4W 13.9N 23.1W 14.8N 26.6W 15.5N 29.9W
LBAR 12.6N 19.4W 14.2N 23.1W 16.4N 26.7W 18.7N 29.7W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 46KTS 52KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 46KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060816 1800 060817 1800 060818 1800 060819 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.6N 30.1W 21.4N 32.2W 23.7N 32.1W 25.2N 30.7W
BAMM 18.9N 29.8W 21.3N 32.3W 23.3N 33.5W 25.3N 33.6W
A98E 16.0N 32.7W 17.0N 37.5W 17.3N 42.0W 17.7N 46.6W
LBAR 21.0N 31.6W 24.5N 32.1W 26.3N 30.7W 27.6N 29.0W
SHIP 55KTS 56KTS 50KTS 43KTS
DSHP 55KTS 56KTS 50KTS 43KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.6N LONCUR = 19.4W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 11.3N LONM12 = 15.5W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 10.3N LONM24 = 11.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[SouthFloridawx]

Still not looking too bad this afternoon.

[WeatherEmperor]

I have a question you guys. I dont know if this has already been answered but the computer model website that I have depended on for so long is not updating with new model runs for 93L or 94L. Its the south florida water management district model website. Here is a link to the site:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots.html

93L and 94L show up but there are absolutely no plots available for the past 24 hours now. Whats up with this?

<RICKY>

[SkeetoBite]

I have a question you guys. I dont know if this has already been answered but the computer model website that I have depended on for so long is not updating with new model runs for 93L or 94L. Its the south florida water management district model website. Here is a link to the site:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots.html

93L and 94L show up but there are absolutely no plots available for the past 24 hours now. Whats up with this?

<RICKY>

This is very unusual for them. they are always very reliable.

We make our maps with the same data. Feel free to use ours until your favorite site comes back online.

Http://www.skeetobiteweather.com