Invest 93L,SE Carolinas,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Thunder44]

590
WHXX01 KWBC 141845
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932006) ON 20060814 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060814 1800 060815 0600 060815 1800 060816 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.2N 78.2W 27.0N 78.6W 27.5N 78.9W 28.3N 79.3W
BAMM 27.2N 78.2W 27.0N 78.4W 27.4N 78.7W 28.2N 78.9W
A98E 27.2N 78.2W 26.3N 78.7W 26.5N 78.8W 27.0N 78.8W
LBAR 27.2N 78.2W 26.5N 78.8W 26.5N 79.8W 27.0N 80.8W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 27KTS 32KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 27KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060816 1800 060817 1800 060818 1800 060819 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.1N 79.9W 29.7N 82.2W 29.4N 86.3W 29.2N 90.3W
BAMM 29.0N 79.4W 30.2N 81.5W 30.6N 85.2W 30.5N 88.2W
A98E 27.6N 78.8W 26.6N 79.0W 25.1N 80.0W 23.6N 81.7W
LBAR 27.3N 82.2W 28.1N 84.9W 29.4N 88.2W 30.7N 91.4W
SHIP 38KTS 48KTS 51KTS 52KTS
DSHP 38KTS 41KTS 29KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.2N LONCUR = 78.2W DIRCUR = 200DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 28.6N LONM12 = 77.7W DIRM12 = 201DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 30.0N LONM24 = 77.2W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

As I thought they are intialized with the low closer to FL coast at 27.2N 78.2W

[Derek Ortt]

I disagree with this initialization for the reasons previously stated

[jdray]

Im not looking at models people. Im looking at the dynamics the models show.

The high to the north is forecast to back off a litttle.



Cripes people, GOMers want it to go there.
South Florida people seem to belive they are the TS magnet.

If Im wrong, Ill eat my crow, but you better get your taste buds ready as well...

With all due respect, these GOMers and South Florida people you speak of are basing their comments on what is actually happening with the system now and what various mets are saying. If there's an outlier here, I'd have to say it's you in NE Florida stating matter of factly it won't go to Miami. Nobody knows exactly what it will do, but it's always wise to use phrases like, "I think..." or "I believe" instead of "It will do this..."
You will rarely even find mets stating matter of factly what WILL occur...they're not psychics either.

Like I said, I am willing to eat crow. never have before.
I read all the AFD and local statements. I dont focus on one area which a lot of people seem to do.

[jdray]

Im not looking at models people. Im looking at the dynamics the models show.

The high to the north is forecast to back off a litttle.



Cripes people, GOMers want it to go there.
South Florida people seem to belive they are the TS magnet.

If Im wrong, Ill eat my crow, but you better get your taste buds ready as well...

But the post you gave with the links to the model tracks...where the models think it will go...CHANGES because the dynamics changes when the center is in a different location.

So even though steering dynamics show it going one way...when you move the center a couple hundred miles to the SW...the track totally changes.

But is that going to be the dominant center now? Things can change

[Thunder44]

I disagree with this initialization for the reasons previously stated

I see what you are saying but that is the one that seems be better defined and dominant at the moment.

[mascpa]

Looks like the convection is deepening this afternoon folks, check out the latest frame which shows some deep red showing up.....

I think it is getting better organized.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

That one frame is from a different satelite. All the other say "GOES" and that one frame says "MSTAT", or something like that. Leaves the wrong impression.

[Thunder44]

Looks like the convection is deepening this afternoon folks, check out the latest frame which shows some deep red showing up.....

I think it is getting better organized.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

That one frame is from a different satelite. All the other say "GOES" and that one frame says "MSTAT", or something like that. Leaves the wrong impression.

The one that is MSTAT is actually showing the tropical storms in the WPAC.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the convection is deepening this afternoon folks, check out the latest frame which shows some deep red showing up.....

I think it is getting better organized.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

That one frame is from a different satelite. All the other say "GOES" and that one frame says "MSTAT", or something like that. Leaves the wrong impression.

no I was looking at a small spec of red that showed up briefly - not the lost frame you are talking about.

[Stormcenter]

I disagree with this initialization for the reasons previously stated

I see what you are saying but that is the one that seems be better defined and dominant at the moment.

I agree with you Thunder44.

[jdray]

1800 models out, new center. still the same northerly movement with the BAMs.

[gatorcane]

1800 models out, new center. still the same northerly movement with the BAMs.

The BAMS are useless at these lattitudes, don't pay attention to them.

[Derek Ortt]

the low near 75W is sustaining convection this afternoon, while the Bahamian one appears to be weakening, at least in terms of convective activity. Also, the globals develop the one at 75W. This one is the most likely to develop, not the one closer to Florida

[jdray]

1800 models out, new center. still the same northerly movement with the BAMs.

The BAMS are useless at these lattitudes, don't pay attention to them.

Once again, just pointing out that regardless of the new models with the new center, it still tracks north then west.

[gatorcane]

1800 models out, new center. still the same northerly movement with the BAMs.

The BAMS are useless at these lattitudes, don't pay attention to them.

Once again, just pointing out that regardless of the new models with the new center, it still tracks north then west.

more than likely it will get pulled northerly where it is located - I doubt it would move much more south than where it already is - the only reason is that the trough helped nudge it south some but the trough is pulling out now.

[mike815]

i believe it will move more south and stall then move more to the west wnw

[shaggy]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
231 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2006




LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST AS MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF IT...HINGES ON THE PLACEMENT
OF THE TROPICAL ENTITY. THE GFS WANTS TO LINGER THE SYSTEM...OR
WHAT IS LEFT OF IT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...JUST OFF THE COAST.
THE NAM/WRF AND DGEX WANT TO DRIVE THE SYSTEM INTO THE SOUTHEAST
COAST COUNTING ON THE FACT THE FIRST BOUNDARY SUCCESSFULLY MAKES
IT THROUGH THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THIS IS THE FAVORED SCENARIO FROM HPC AND SEE NO REASON
TO DEVIATE FROM THIS SOLUTION. HAVE USED SLIGHTLY TWEAKED VERSION
OF HPC NUMBERS WHICH SHOW BOTH POPS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY


still not sure whats going to happen! Morehead city totally side stepped the whole thing

[SouthFloridawx]

i believe it will move more south and stall then move more to the west wnw

It's possible it will move towards the south a bit more before making a W to WNW movement into the coast in a few days. A NW component is definitely not out of the question depending on the trough mentioned in Capeverdewave post a couple pages back.

Looking at those models the Northward movements seems a little out of the question as they move it nw immediately and then west and sw.

I would say a good sollution would be to wait to see which LLC will form if any. Then we'll see what's going on. Generally the steering flow is very light and probably will move westward slowly during the next couple of days.

Accuweather's graphic is correct as this area could move anywhere from southeast florida to north carolina or even out to sea if the trough coming down is strong enough.

[Air Force Met]

the low near 75W is sustaining convection this afternoon, while the Bahamian one appears to be weakening, at least in terms of convective activity. Also, the globals develop the one at 75W. This one is the most likely to develop, not the one closer to Florida

I see no low at 75W. I see a trof. There is more cyclonic turning with the western low than the eastern one....and the convection is jsut as active there as it is east. Now...granted...the dynamics are better east and will certainly be better tomorrow...but right now...organization is better west. There is a better defined low west...and the convection is equal (well...equally bad).

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =spect.pal

[Lowpressure]

I see a mess out there with no evidecne of clear dominance of any of the lows at this point. I think some diurnal convection may help to pin point the dominant low. It is being mentioned by NWS Charlotte as a possible player by the end of the week into the weekend.

[Trugunzn]