Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Ex 94L)

#141 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Mon Aug 14, 2006 2:01 pm

Cool. Thanks SkeetoBite!

<RICKY>

calculatedrisk · #142 Postby **calculatedrisk** » Mon Aug 14, 2006 2:08 pm

Here is the 1815 UTC IR Meteosat-8 showing the decrease in convection:

#143 Postby **Lowpressure** » Mon Aug 14, 2006 2:14 pm

Looks to be the let down most of us anticipated. Still looks pretty good, but a big decrease in convection once system cleared the coastline.I would not write this one off yet. In fact, if it can stay together, a more westerly track is likely, may be trouble further down the road.

#144 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Aug 14, 2006 2:16 pm

Still looks pretty good if you ask me. Probably see another flare up of convective activity... Looks pretty cool with the IR showing banding features.

#145 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Aug 14, 2006 2:18 pm

yes convection has died but its pretty typical to see this - if we see banding and it flaring up again and sustaining then it could be the next TS - still give it an 80% chance of development.

dwg71 · #146 Postby **dwg71** » Mon Aug 14, 2006 2:46 pm

It seems that systems that look this good right off the coast never pan out... just an amateur observation.

Scorpion · #147 Postby **Scorpion** » Mon Aug 14, 2006 3:00 pm

dwg71 wrote:It seems that systems that look this good right off the coast never pan out... just an amateur observation.

Agreed...it seems as if its always the quiet ones.

#148 Postby **deltadog03** » Mon Aug 14, 2006 3:09 pm

stick a fork in it.....Im serious...

#149 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Aug 14, 2006 3:19 pm

It would be wise for people not to write this off so quickly.

#150 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Aug 14, 2006 3:20 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:It would be wise for people not to write this off so quickly.

That is a good way to get jinxed and watch it develop out of the blue...

Damar91 · #151 Postby **Damar91** » Mon Aug 14, 2006 3:21 pm

Yeah, just remember what happened when everyone wrote off TD Ten last year! :eek:

all_we_know_is_FALLING · #152 Postby **all_we_know_is_FALLING** » Mon Aug 14, 2006 3:22 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:It would be wise for people not to write this off so quickly.

That is a good way to get jinxed and watch it develop out of the blue...

How is that?
The poster said it was wise to not write this system off.

#153 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Aug 14, 2006 3:40 pm

Still has a good bit of moisture associated with it. I would look for a wnw tracking changing to mainly westward in 2-3 days.

Grease Monkey · #154 Postby **Grease Monkey** » Mon Aug 14, 2006 3:41 pm

all_we_know_is_FALLING wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:It would be wise for people not to write this off so quickly.

That is a good way to get jinxed and watch it develop out of the blue...

How is that?
The poster said it was wise to not write this system off.

all we know,

I'd chime in with haven't you ever looked at this in a different way, crazy could of been agreeing with SFwx. It's much better to post these kinds of things with a sense of poise and rationality. :wink:

(some lyrics in my post taken from the song panic at a disco by write sins not tragedies)

Sorry I couldn't resist.

#155 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Aug 14, 2006 3:42 pm

SFla....after looking at various items, I'm kinda agreeing with you on that westward turn in a few days. I don't think it'll recurve like the Bam brothers are thinking.

all_we_know_is_FALLING · #156 Postby **all_we_know_is_FALLING** » Mon Aug 14, 2006 3:43 pm

Grease Monkey wrote:
all_we_know_is_FALLING wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:It would be wise for people not to write this off so quickly.

That is a good way to get jinxed and watch it develop out of the blue...

How is that?
The poster said it was wise to not write this system off.

all we know,

I'd chime in with haven't you ever looked at this in a different way, crazy could of been agreeing with SFwx. It's much better to post these kinds of things with a sense of poise and rationality.

(some lyrics in my post taken from the song panic at a disco by write sins not tragedies)

Sorry I couldn't resist.

[rollsonfloorlaughing]

Ah, I see now.
That's why I try not to come off as rude when I reply.. it's hard to see how people mean things over the internet.

Meso · #157 Postby **Meso** » Mon Aug 14, 2006 3:47 pm

Haha,I thought that sentence looked familiar in some ways... Can't believe people want to write this off yet :O It has lost some convection but every system seems to fluctuate on and off with convection... still looks impressive.. Will be interesting to see when I wake up tomorrow (Gmt +2)

#158 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Aug 14, 2006 3:50 pm

skysummit wrote:SFla....after looking at various items, I'm kinda agreeing with you on that westward turn in a few days. I don't think it'll recurve like the Bam brothers are thinking.

Yeah ... I don't think it's going to recurve either. Unless it strengthens into a decent storm it will try to go poleward. If it's current intensity is maintained through the next day or so a westward track is more likely with the low level steering flow of the ridge.

Sanibel · #159 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Aug 14, 2006 3:55 pm

Atlantic has eaten every weak system to enter it lately.

#160 Postby **TSmith274** » Mon Aug 14, 2006 4:08 pm

I wouldn't write it off... has a pretty good signature to it. We'll see.

Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Ex 94L)

Who is online