Tropical Depression Hector in EPAC

[cycloneye]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP972006) ON 20060814 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060814 1200 060815 0000 060815 1200 060816 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.5N 105.5W 12.1N 108.1W 12.6N 110.7W 13.1N 113.2W
BAMM 11.5N 105.5W 12.1N 108.4W 12.6N 111.1W 13.2N 113.8W
LBAR 11.5N 105.5W 12.0N 108.1W 12.8N 111.2W 13.4N 114.6W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 42KTS 53KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 42KTS 53KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060816 1200 060817 1200 060818 1200 060819 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.8N 115.7W 16.4N 121.0W 19.4N 126.4W 22.5N 131.1W
BAMM 14.0N 116.5W 16.3N 122.2W 18.6N 128.0W 20.6N 132.9W
LBAR 14.1N 118.1W 16.1N 124.9W 18.2N 128.8W 19.8N 131.8W
SHIP 64KTS 75KTS 70KTS 60KTS
DSHP 64KTS 75KTS 70KTS 60KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.5N LONCUR = 105.5W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 10.8N LONM12 = 103.9W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 10.3N LONM24 = 102.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Let's see if this system develops into Tropical Storm Hector which is the next name in the EPAC list of names.

[cycloneye]

ABPZ20 KNHC 141638
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PDT MON AUG 14 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BROWN

[SouthFloridawx]

I've noticed a few of the models try to develop a storm there the past couple of days.

[bombarderoazul]

Has the EPAC reached its peak yet?

[cycloneye]

ABPZ20 KNHC 142232
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT MON AUG 14 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED DURING THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH


Oh boy,I thought the TWO was posted but anyway here it is.

[CrazyC83]

Has the EPAC reached its peak yet?

Approaching its peak. I'd give this a 70% chance of development.

[clfenwi]

Comment from 04Z TWD:

SPECIAL FEATURES...
LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 13N109W BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND
INCREASING ITS CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMING
MORE FAVORABLE AS DIFFLUENT FLOW ENHANCES TSTMS AND ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW HELPS INTENSIFICATION...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
24-36 HRS.

[cycloneye]

ABPZ20 KNHC 150959
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT TUE AUG 15 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW EVIDENCE OF
ORGANIZATION...AND COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH

[bob rulz]

What? No love for the East Pacific? Tropical cyclones occur there, too!

[WmE]

What? No love for the East Pacific? Tropical cyclones occur there, too!

Yeah, I like the EPac too. Most of the storms are and there are some interesting storms too. (e.g. Daniel)

[wxmann_91]

This is probably going to be a TD soon. All the Globals develop it as well.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like a very strong Tropical depression if not weak tropical storm now. You got a LLC which is closed. With deep convection and banding.

[clfenwi]

15/1730 UTC 13.0N 113.5W T1.5/1.5 97E

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Take a look at this....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/avn-l.jpg

[Cyclenall]

Take a look at this....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/avn-l.jpg

Yeah, if this has a LLC then this is a Tropical Depression currently. It looks better then Tropical Storm Fabio if you can recall that. Good banding and deep convection so I expect this to be a tropical cyclone by 5 pm EST.

This is probably going to be a TD soon. All the Globals develop it as well.

Yep, the models develop it. I wonder how strong though.

[cycloneye]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 151851Z AUG 06//
WTPN21 PGTW 151900
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8N 111.4W TO 14.3N 116.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 151200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.8N 111.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 161900Z.
//



A Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert has been issued.

[cycloneye]

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

TD 9-E has formed.First advisory at 2 PM PDT or.5 PM EDT

[Scorpion]

Yay another EPAC storm . The EPAC holds an insane lead right now.

[AnnularCane]

Well, he is kinda cute...

[cycloneye]

WTPZ24 KNHC 152025
TCMEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006
2100 UTC TUE AUG 15 2006

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 114.1W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 114.1W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 113.3W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.4N 115.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 13.9N 117.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 45SE 45SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.3N 119.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.1N 121.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.1N 125.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 19.5N 129.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 22.0N 133.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 114.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART

WWWW





WTPZ44 KNHC 152028
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 15 2006

THE WELL DEFINED LOW WHICH BEEN TRACKED FOR THE PAST DAY OR TWO HAS
ATTAINED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...THE NINTH OF THE SEASON IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 25 AND 30 KT RESPECTIVELY
FROM SAB AND TAFB AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT 30 KT.

MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
CIRCULATION CENTER MAY BE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND...DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE VERTICAL
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL CLOSELY AND BRINGS THE
CYCLONE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HOURS. BY 96 HOURS...THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND
STEADILY WEAKEN.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/12. THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE
STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CURRENTLY BETWEEN 125W AND 130W IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT WESTWARD...ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD
IN 2-3 DAYS. BASED ON THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION...THE FORECAST
TRACK IS A LITTLE FASTER AND ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 24-48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE TRACK
REMAINS A LITTLE LEFT OF THE CONU MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 13.0N 114.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 13.4N 115.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 16/1800Z 13.9N 117.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 14.3N 119.6W 55 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 15.1N 121.6W 65 KT
72HR VT 18/1800Z 17.1N 125.3W 65 KT
96HR VT 19/1800Z 19.5N 129.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 20/1800Z 22.0N 133.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART
WWWW