Invest 93L,SE Carolinas,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Thunder44]

I have to admit that I am having trouble closing off a low north of the Bahamas. That area also appears broad. It may be slightly better defined than the eastern low/trough now, but with the better dynamics, if I had to place a bet on which one has the better chance, it would be the eastern trough

Chances are neither of the two are going to be the one...if any. Probably will be somewhere else....if at all.

Looks like something in between those two lows may be trying to get better organized. Looks all the dry and sinking air shifting SW in Florida as upper-low develops there while a upper-level ridge develops further east. Dr. Lyons pointed this out.

[Nimbus]

Near the convection at 27.6N 75.1W?

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like it is organizing near 28n 75w too me. Looks like we could possibly get a closed low there come tonight or tomorrow if the convection keeps up.

[Derek Ortt]

yep, thats the area

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 142059
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA EXTENDS FROM JUST NORTH OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR A FEW
HUNDRED MILES. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE AND SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY OR DRIFTS NORTHWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.

[gatorcane]

I think we'll see something out of the 28N 75W area within 24-48 hours

[Stormcenter]

Why do I have the feeling this will be a fish storm if it develops. Overall things continue to remain relatively quiet in the tropics.

[Derek Ortt]

not with a ridge building in behind the trough

not much evidence for a fish, but probably a Carolina system

[Stormcenter]

not with a ridge building in behind the trough

not much evidence for a fish, but probably a Carolina system

But wouldn't this all be based on timing, if and when something would develop?

[Derek Ortt]

unless this takes 3 or more days to develop, it should encounter a ridge, probably bringing this somewhere in the Carolinas

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

not with a ridge building in behind the trough

not much evidence for a fish, but probably a Carolina system

Personally I think you might be correct, but with my own track projections I didn't feel comfortable saying that yet (still to much uncertainty), thus I went with off shore, at least for now.

[whereverwx]

So, I guess it might be a bit similar to Gaston if it develops (not the intensity, but the track).

[Stormavoider]

No new buoy data?

[Sanibel]

Hints of a twist but also hints of illusion from cloud motions.

[OuterBanker]

It has been interesting since 94l showed up. First models were all over the place from Fla. to fish with most models that moved toward Carolina coast veered away. Now it still seems that Fla. is first choice with Ga. to NC as others, with no fish. Truth is, until something initializes none will get a good handle on it. It is interesting that the center (for now) of the broad low seems to be the best bet. Luckily, it should not get to any real concern because of all the dry air. Unless it waits for the dry air to pull out or creates it's own environment. btw, the ir loop glitch with the wpac systems is still there, sure hope it's not an omen.

[rainstorm]

well, a front is coming off the coast weds, and another behind that one. the high isnt locking in, so i dont see how it can hit the carolinas, if it develops at all

[Stormavoider]

North wind and getting low at settlement point.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=spgf1&meas=pres&uom=E

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=spgf1&unit=M&tz=STN

[curtadams]

North wind and getting low at settlement point.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=spgf1&meas=pres&uom=E

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=spgf1&unit=M&tz=STN

so the westernmost low is probably closed, albeit with no convection. It was a nice naked swirl this morning. I think I see N movement of low clouds around 26N 73.5W so that circ may be closed too (yeah, not surface, I know). Quite a mess. Reminds me of that system in June that churned around for a week before finally not quite being a TD on the Carolinas.

[SouthFloridawx]

If there was an area that I would focus on during the next 24 hours it would be this area below.

[whereverwx]

If there was an area that I would focus on during the next 24 hours it would be this area below.

I agree... that's the exact same area that I would watch.