Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Ex 94L)

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cycloneye
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#161 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 14, 2006 4:14 pm

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAVE
WEAKENED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.
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#162 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Aug 14, 2006 5:17 pm

Does anyone have the latest mariners rule 1-2-3 map?
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#163 Postby WindRunner » Mon Aug 14, 2006 5:36 pm

Image

And you can find it here, under TC Danger Areas.
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#164 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Aug 14, 2006 5:57 pm

i noticed they moved the cone a little farther south. More of a WNW movement rather than NW.
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#165 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Mon Aug 14, 2006 6:02 pm

I noticed that too, hmmm interesting.
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#166 Postby destro34 » Mon Aug 14, 2006 6:13 pm

fishi,fish,fish
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#167 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Aug 14, 2006 6:15 pm

So when was that map last updated? Does the NHC still believe its possible for a TD to form?
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#168 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Aug 14, 2006 6:31 pm

As far as this invest goes well... It looked a little more promising earlier today.

I would look towards the southern end of this area. Looking at the CIMMS site and check out the satelite loops, the southern end has been a bit more active than the northern end. It's got more convergence and it shows.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 7conv.html

Also here
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/QUNA00.jpg
850mb flow

It also has better upper level divergence..
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... m7dvg.html

There is just better conditions for convection in the southern end.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wvmid.html

It's also fighting off some dry air and dust as mentioned by Derek earlier today. The dust is affecting the northeaster side of the convection.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... rucol.html

I general motion is shown in a graphic below. I think it's gonna get trapped under a building ridge from the north and west.

Image

Models seem to be in agreement on a high pressure ridge on top of this system.

CMC 12Z - 144 hours
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr

GFS 18Z - 144 hours
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

NOGAPS 12Z 144 hours
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... hour=144hr

UKMET 12Z - 144 hours
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... hour=144hr
Last edited by SouthFloridawx on Mon Aug 14, 2006 6:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#169 Postby tropicsPR » Mon Aug 14, 2006 6:33 pm

Tropical Depression? or just a strong wave? Seems to be developing convection again...

Image
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#170 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Aug 14, 2006 6:45 pm

PS that is all depending on development occuring.
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#171 Postby TS Zack » Mon Aug 14, 2006 6:50 pm

Well, if this thing does develop within the next day or so the only place it will go is out to sea. It is at such a high latitude and there will be a trough developing in the Central North Atlantic. Chances of this thing making it half-way across are pretty minimal. Remember the model maps you are using can be decieving because you are looking at MSLP. Hurricanes are steered in the mid to upper-levels.
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#172 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Aug 14, 2006 6:55 pm

TS Zack wrote:Well, if this thing does develop within the next day or so the only place it will go is out to sea. It is at such a high latitude and there will be a trough developing in the Central North Atlantic. Chances of this thing making it half-way across are pretty minimal. Remember the model maps you are using can be decieving because you are looking at MSLP. Hurricanes are steered in the mid to upper-levels.


I understand what your saying but, it's still a wave and not a hurricane.

I will admit if it does becoming strong enough to catagorize as a hurricane then yes it will go poleward and be pulled up but, if it remains weak it will remain in the lower level steering flow.

Low level steering flow would indicate a more westerly movement
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html
Image

If it makes it to the mid to upper levels then yes steered out to sea.
Image
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#173 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Aug 14, 2006 6:59 pm

SouthFloridawx, I agree with ya,
if we want it to go out to sea, then it better start to developing and fast!!! Taking it's time to develop will only steer it further westward. It will be just another strong wave drifting westward, and if it develops later down the road, then the chances of being a fish significantly dimish.
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#174 Postby Coredesat » Mon Aug 14, 2006 7:00 pm

destro34 wrote:fishi,fish,fish


In the classical sense of the term, this can't be a fish unless it goes southwest or south, because on its current track, it will affect the Cape Verde Islands.
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#175 Postby wxmann_91 » Mon Aug 14, 2006 7:51 pm

The 12Z runs were a significant change from the 6Z runs. If this remains weak, this might reach the islands.
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#176 Postby Windtalker1 » Mon Aug 14, 2006 8:44 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:The 12Z runs were a significant change from the 6Z runs. If this remains weak, this might reach the islands.
and then the USA
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#177 Postby TS Zack » Mon Aug 14, 2006 8:57 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:
TS Zack wrote:Well, if this thing does develop within the next day or so the only place it will go is out to sea. It is at such a high latitude and there will be a trough developing in the Central North Atlantic. Chances of this thing making it half-way across are pretty minimal. Remember the model maps you are using can be decieving because you are looking at MSLP. Hurricanes are steered in the mid to upper-levels.


I understand what your saying but, it's still a wave and not a hurricane.

I will admit if it does becoming strong enough to catagorize as a hurricane then yes it will go poleward and be pulled up but, if it remains weak it will remain in the lower level steering flow.

Low level steering flow would indicate a more westerly movement
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html
Image

If it makes it to the mid to upper levels then yes steered out to sea.
Image


Still way too far North.....
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#178 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Aug 14, 2006 9:00 pm

Zack, if this system stays in the lower levels it'll move westward.
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#179 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 14, 2006 9:17 pm

A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD SPREAD OVER THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.


10:30 PM TWO for 94L.
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#180 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Aug 14, 2006 9:21 pm

sounds a little more optimistic for TC formation than at 530...i certainly wouldnt write it off yet and i think tonites diurnal max will help the storm greatly...im pretty sure it has a closed LLC, based on sat imagery, from earlier so all it needs is a burst of convection right on the center and we have a TD
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