Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Ex 94L)

[Scorpion]

If it stays weak, I doubt it will develop. We have had countless waves stay weak and almost develop but then get hit by shear/dry air in the Caribbean.

[mobilebay]

If it stays weak, I doubt it will develop. We have had countless waves stay weak and almost develop but then get hit by shear/dry air in the Caribbean.

That first sentence is a fact!

[AnnularCane]

Has this wave moved at all today? She seems to still be in the same spot as this morning.

[Fego]

Last few sat frames shows a west movement.

2:00 a.m. TWD
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE 1012 MB BROAD SURFACE LOW IS JUST S OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 14N22W ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION. TROPICAL FORMATION IF IT DOES OCCUR WILL BE SLOW AS
THE ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY SLIGHTLY MARGINAL AS THE SYSTEM .....MOVES W
AT 15-20 KT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER A BROAD AREA
FROM 8N-17N BETWEEN 17W-25W WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY MOVING
OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

[calculatedrisk]

Meteosat-8, last 3 images, most recent is 0615 UTC: Definitely less convection. 94L seems to be moving due W and slower than previous waves coming off Africa.

[alan1961]

Yes and like the rest of them wave goodbye to it!

[Thunder44]

Yes and like the rest of them wave goodbye to it!

It's not developing now, but don't write it off yet. The wave is still there and generating some scattered convection. The longer it takes to develop, there more oppurtunity it has to come further west.

[OURAGAN]

It's moving west now:

THE 1012 MB BROAD SURFACE LOW IS JUST SE OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 12N21W ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION. TROPICAL FORMATION IF IT DOES OCCUR WILL BE SLOW AS
THE ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY SLIGHTLY MARGINAL AS THE SYSTEM MOVES W
AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE LOW
WITHIN 30/45 NM OF LINE 14N20W-14.5N23W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER A BROADER AREA FROM 7N-16N BETWEEN
18W-24W WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY MOVING TOWARD THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS THIS MORNING.

[HURAKAN]

94L is now out of NRL's webpage.

[ConvergenceZone]

well, it's August 15th people...Where's the activity I was promised....
I'm waiting for the "wait until September 1st" posts to start.....

[gatorcane]

unbelievable absolutely nothing in the Atlantic can develop - never seen anything like this.

Remember last year there was no CV season, seems like this year is following in its steps. The difference is that in 2005 conditions were very favorable in the Caribbean, GOM, and off the coast of the US for development. This year they are not.....at least not yet.

[Thunder44]

Some of you need more patience and stopped getting so bummed out about every wave or disturbance that doesn't develop.

[ConvergenceZone]

unbelievable absolutely nothing in the Atlantic can develop - never seen anything like this.

Remember last year there was no CV season, seems like this year is following in its steps. The difference is that in 2005 conditions were very favorable in the Caribbean, GOM, and off the coast of the US for development. This year they are not.....at least not yet.

I have to agree with you gator. I"m not use to seeing every single wave go "poof". It's been a long long time since I've ever seen anything like this happen. The thing is, this is happening to GREAT looking waves. It's not as if we are seeing small awful looking waves trying to develop, and the thing is, while there's shear and dry air, it doesn't seem like it's been enough to dissolve these waves, but somehow it is.......
We shall see, but we are getting into late August now, and remember, there have been times where the season has ended early in mid to late September.

[SouthFloridawx]

I'm wondering if the lower SST'S becuase of the above normal Trade Winds has something to do with it?

[gatorcane]

unbelievable absolutely nothing in the Atlantic can develop - never seen anything like this.

Remember last year there was no CV season, seems like this year is following in its steps. The difference is that in 2005 conditions were very favorable in the Caribbean, GOM, and off the coast of the US for development. This year they are not.....at least not yet.

I have to agree with you gator. I"m not use to seeing every single wave go "poof". It's been a long long time since I've ever seen anything like this happen. The thing is, this is happening to GREAT looking waves. It's not as if we are seeing small awful looking waves trying to develop, and the thing is, while there's shear and dry air, it doesn't seem like it's been enough to dissolve these waves, but somehow it is.......
We shall see, but we are getting into late August now, and remember, there have been times where the season has ended early in mid to late September.

Yes I agree. That last wave was extremely impressive and somehow the SAL and shear does its work to completely dissolve it. It is possible the season could end early in mid september which would give 4 weeks for the CV season to get going.

[gatorcane]

I'm wondering if the lower SST'S becuase of the above normal Trade Winds has something to do with it?

It think it has something to do with it. In 2005, several waves fought off the same harsh conditions we see now since the SSTs were about 1-2 degrees warmer out there.

[skysummit]

Awh....Gator! You edited your post! I was about to jump all over that comment! LOL

[HUC]

gatorcane,

unbelievable absolutely nothing in the Atlantic can develop - never seen anything like this.

Remember last year there was no CV season, seems like this year is following in its steps. The difference is that in 2005 conditions were very favorable in the Caribbean, GOM, and off the coast of the US for development. This year they are not.....at least not yet.

In my long( 50years now)eperience of hurricane seasons,i can says "yes";i know some seasons withouth any significant wave in...september!!!
The recent seasons gave us a false appreciation of the "normal" ones.
So at a moment when scientists are trying to understand the way a singla wave developped ("Namma Eperience"all wee had to say,is:w... and s..

[Air Force Met]

well, it's August 15th people...Where's the activity I was promised....
I'm waiting for the "wait until September 1st" posts to start.....

Yeah...we got the..."Activity will ramp up starting in August"...then we got..."wait until the 10th...."...then we got..."wait until the 15th..".

Someday...some of you guys are going to learn it not on a time-table.

When the pattern is this unfavorable...it takes a long time to get it out of the dumper....and it may ar may not get out of there.

Personnaly...after last year...and working 40 straiaght days and never seeing my family...I don't care if it ever does.

[gatorcane]

Awh....Gator! You edited your post! I was about to jump all over that comment! LOL

Yeah well theoretically Aug 15th starts the CV season....so I had to take out that comment