Question About DSHP Track Assumption

[wxman57]

Does anyone here know what the DSHP (Decay SHIPS) uses as a projected track for its intensity forecast? Without knowing what track it is using, it's difficult to discern whether intensity fluctuations are the result of land interactions or some other factors. I was guessing that maybe it uses the ICON track (Intensity CONsensus).

[Aquawind]

This is all I found and I am sure you have read it but anyways...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ssd/nwpmodel/ht ... .htm#SHIPS

[wjs3]

WXMAN:

I was looking around on the SHIPS model yesterday and saw that it was GFS-based (found the reference in an old NHC discussion). My first guess would be that DSHIPS is the same--so uses GFS track--but I am speculating.

[wxman57]

WXMAN:

I was looking around on the SHIPS model yesterday and saw that it was GFS-based (found the reference in an old NHC discussion). My first guess would be that DSHIPS is the same--so uses GFS track--but I am speculating.

Yeah, the web page posted above yours does mention using the operational GFS for some initialization parameters, but it doesn't specifically mention what track it uses.

[wxman57]

Just heard from Derek that the DSHP uses the BAMM model prior to development then the official NHC track after development. That explain some "strange" intensity predictions. The BAMM isn't necessarily a good model track north of 15-20N latitude.

[wjs3]

Thanks for the info.