Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Ex 94L)

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Derek Ortt

#201 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:03 am

NRL no longer has this as an invest
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bob rulz
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#202 Postby bob rulz » Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:09 am

Well then, now we just pay attention to that huge wave behind it.
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#203 Postby ConvergenceZone » Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:10 am

Air Force Met wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:well, it's August 15th people...Where's the activity I was promised.... :lol:
I'm waiting for the "wait until September 1st" posts to start..... :lol:


Yeah...we got the..."Activity will ramp up starting in August"...then we got..."wait until the 10th...."...then we got..."wait until the 15th..".

Someday...some of you guys are going to learn it not on a time-table. :D

When the pattern is this unfavorable...it takes a long time to get it out of the dumper....and it may ar may not get out of there.

Personnaly...after last year...and working 40 straiaght days and never seeing my family...I don't care if it ever does.


Yea, I can understand. I am envious though of those who are living their dream in meteorology. I always told myself that if I was going to work long hours, a career in meteorology would be the only way I'd do it. I just absolutely LOVE the weather, but at 40 years old, I'm WAY to old to even think about starting a career in Meteorology, so I just use it as a hobby :).... I live for this stuff though. I can understand where you are coming from though not being able to see your familiy at all, that's not good...

Dusty
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Derek Ortt

#204 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:11 am

once that wave comes off of the coast, we may need to pay attention to 94L again
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#205 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:12 am

Derek Ortt wrote:once that wave comes off of the coast, we may need to pay attention to 94L again


why what do you mean?
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#206 Postby bob rulz » Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:13 am

Yeah, I don't get it either. The new wave would be a different INVEST if it came off the coast.
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#207 Postby Hyperstorm » Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:14 am

gatorcane wrote:unbelievable absolutely nothing in the Atlantic can develop - never seen anything like this.

Remember last year there was no CV season, seems like this year is following in its steps. The difference is that in 2005 conditions were very favorable in the Caribbean, GOM, and off the coast of the US for development. This year they are not.....at least not yet.


This "slow" (relative to last year) start to the season was expected back in May. I really don't know what made NOAA and CSU forecast such high levels of activity (17 named storms?, 6 major hurricanes?), when conditions back in May clearly indicated a "normal" season this year. Of course, "normal" for the period of activity from 1995-2005, which is around 14 named storms. I think last year's record numbers influenced their numbers for this year.

As for the weakening of this latest wave since yesterday, it was expected. I mentioned yesterday (first page of this thread) that this system was not in a very favorable location for development (north of 12N, near 15N) due to the cooler SSTs. I've learned over the years that the waters off the Cape Verde islands are not the most conducive for development in August. Even though at the surface, the temperature might appear to be just above 80*, just below it, the temperature is way below minimal criteria for develoment. This generally creates a stable layer of drier air at the surface. If this wave were located 100 miles to the south, it would have been another story because upper-level winds are fairly favorable for development and there is plenty of mid-upper level moisture in the area.

Don't be worried. The storms will come...and sooner, rather than later. During the next 2 weeks we should see a major upswing in activity. Remember how 1999 had such weaklings moving off Africa in early-mid August encountering a HUGE area of stable air in the Central Atlantic? While seasonal conditions do not support another 1999, this is something to chew on while another system develops.

If we follow last decade's climatology...September should be a very busy month. Be patient, but most importantly, be on alert...
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#208 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:15 am

bob rulz wrote:Yeah, I don't get it either. The new wave would be a different INVEST if it came off the coast.


maybe the new wave will somehow cause 94L to get into a more favorable environment?
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Derek Ortt

#209 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:16 am

the wave behind sometimes disrupts the SAL, allowing the leading wave to develop
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#210 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:17 am

Hyperstorm wrote:
gatorcane wrote:unbelievable absolutely nothing in the Atlantic can develop - never seen anything like this.

Remember last year there was no CV season, seems like this year is following in its steps. The difference is that in 2005 conditions were very favorable in the Caribbean, GOM, and off the coast of the US for development. This year they are not.....at least not yet.


This "slow" (relative to last year) start to the season was expected back in May. I really don't know what made NOAA and CSU forecast such high levels of activity (17 named storms?, 6 major hurricanes?), when conditions back in May clearly indicated a "normal" season this year. Of course, "normal" for the period of activity from 1995-2005, which is around 14 named storms. I think last year's record numbers influenced their numbers for this year.

As for the weakening of this latest wave since yesterday, it was expected. I mentioned yesterday (first page of this thread) that this system was not in a very favorable location for development (north of 12N, near 15N) due to the cooler SSTs. I've learned over the years that the waters off the Cape Verde islands are not the most conducive for development in August. Even though at the surface, the temperature might appear to be just above 80*, just below it, the temperature is way below minimal criteria for develoment. This generally creates a stable layer of drier air at the surface. If this wave were located 100 miles to the south, it would have been another story because upper-level winds are fairly favorable for development and there is plenty of mid-upper level moisture in the area.

Don't be worried. The storms will come...and sooner, rather than later. During the next 2 weeks we should see a major upswing in activity. Remember how 1999 had such weaklings moving off Africa in early-mid August encountering a HUGE area of stable air in the Central Atlantic? While seasonal conditions do not support another 1999, this is something to chew on while another system develops.

If we follow last decade's climatology...September should be a very busy month. Be patient, but most importantly, be on alert...


Thanks for these comments. What do you mean by last year's numbers have influenced this year's numbers. I have been wondering about that myself....?
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#211 Postby bob rulz » Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:27 am

Derek Ortt wrote:the wave behind sometimes disrupts the SAL, allowing the leading wave to develop


Ah, okay. I didn't know that. Thanks for explaining.
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#212 Postby bob rulz » Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:29 am

gatorcane wrote:
Hyperstorm wrote:
gatorcane wrote:unbelievable absolutely nothing in the Atlantic can develop - never seen anything like this.

Remember last year there was no CV season, seems like this year is following in its steps. The difference is that in 2005 conditions were very favorable in the Caribbean, GOM, and off the coast of the US for development. This year they are not.....at least not yet.


This "slow" (relative to last year) start to the season was expected back in May. I really don't know what made NOAA and CSU forecast such high levels of activity (17 named storms?, 6 major hurricanes?), when conditions back in May clearly indicated a "normal" season this year. Of course, "normal" for the period of activity from 1995-2005, which is around 14 named storms. I think last year's record numbers influenced their numbers for this year.

As for the weakening of this latest wave since yesterday, it was expected. I mentioned yesterday (first page of this thread) that this system was not in a very favorable location for development (north of 12N, near 15N) due to the cooler SSTs. I've learned over the years that the waters off the Cape Verde islands are not the most conducive for development in August. Even though at the surface, the temperature might appear to be just above 80*, just below it, the temperature is way below minimal criteria for develoment. This generally creates a stable layer of drier air at the surface. If this wave were located 100 miles to the south, it would have been another story because upper-level winds are fairly favorable for development and there is plenty of mid-upper level moisture in the area.

Don't be worried. The storms will come...and sooner, rather than later. During the next 2 weeks we should see a major upswing in activity. Remember how 1999 had such weaklings moving off Africa in early-mid August encountering a HUGE area of stable air in the Central Atlantic? While seasonal conditions do not support another 1999, this is something to chew on while another system develops.

If we follow last decade's climatology...September should be a very busy month. Be patient, but most importantly, be on alert...


Thanks for these comments. What do you mean by last year's numbers have influenced this year's numbers. I have been wondering about that myself....?


He means that because of how active last year was, the NHC is being less conservative with their estimates, since now they know that freak seasons like last years can occur.
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#213 Postby deltadog03 » Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:52 am

Once again....POOF
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#214 Postby fci » Tue Aug 15, 2006 10:06 am

This is SO much better than last year for those of us who DO NOT WANT to see a storm in our neighborhoods.

Here we are one year later chasing Invests with 20 page threads and thinking the "next" wave may help an Invest have a chance.

I'll take chasing ghosts of Invests for 2006 as opposed to the non stop fire drill we had last year.
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#215 Postby ConvergenceZone » Tue Aug 15, 2006 10:27 am

Don't get my wrong, I'm happy as hell that nobody has got any by any landfalling hurricanes this year. I have relatives down in Florida and Alabama, just want some fishies to track.
I think I'm just going to start tracking the ones that form in the Pacific, that should keep me busy the rest of the season ;)
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#216 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 15, 2006 10:30 am

11:30am TWO:

:sleeping:

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS DIMINISHED. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED AND TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED.
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#217 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Aug 15, 2006 10:31 am

DOA :lol:

Excellent!!!!!!!!!!!!
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#218 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Aug 15, 2006 10:32 am

fci wrote:This is SO much better than last year for those of us who DO NOT WANT to see a storm in our neighborhoods.

Here we are one year later chasing Invests with 20 page threads and thinking the "next" wave may help an Invest have a chance.

I'll take chasing ghosts of Invests for 2006 as opposed to the non stop fire drill we had last year.


Great post!!!!!!!!!!
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#219 Postby mike815 » Tue Aug 15, 2006 10:32 am

great oh well would have been neat if it formed right off the coast a very rare event maybe the next one of these has to form eventually.
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#220 Postby ConvergenceZone » Tue Aug 15, 2006 10:45 am

hehe, the amount of people on this board at any one time is sharply diminishing. it's such a huge difference from when there's no activity.
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