What is the point of no return for things to get going?

[tgenius]

I'm just wondering if the conditions were to stay similar to how they are now (and how they have been) yes I know MJO is coming, and yes the SAL is disipating a bit..but I just wonder at what point will it realistically shift away from the CV style system and more concerned with Carribean/homebrew style systems?

[Jim Cantore]

It was all year last year we had home grown systems that originated as CV waves but didnt develop until they got close to the U.S. Irene being the exception. But last year wasnt intrested in climotology.

[tgenius]

Right.. but as I mentioned on the chat last night... last year, 2005, was the exception to the rule, NOT the rule, and everyone continues to focus as if 2005 IS the norm

[Brent]

The Cape Verde season usually lasts through the end of September(though some years it can end earlier than others). In October, almost all storms develop close to land(Caribbean, Gulf, Western Atlantic).

[Damar91]

Just a dumb question, is it possible that the reason thing are taking so long to develop is because of how late in the year we had so many storms last year? Maybe that's why things are taking longer?

[StormWarning1]

I'm just wondering if the conditions were to stay similar to how they are now (and how they have been) yes I know MJO is coming, and yes the SAL is disipating a bit..but I just wonder at what point will it realistically shift away from the CV style system and more concerned with Carribean/homebrew style systems?

In terms of meeting those lofty early season predictions of 17 named storms and 9 hurricanes we probably need Debby and Ernesto by Sept 1, both reaching hurricane status, still plenty of time. You could still easily get 3-4 more hurricanes in Sept. and 2-3 in Oct, plus 1 more late season hurricane. No Debby by 9/1 then those 17/9 numbers are toast.
There is still plenty of time to meet an average season, but no
Debby by 9/10 then it gets dicey, there are some very active Octobers in the seasons past and with the way above average warm water anamolies in the North Atlantic I doubt the season ends early.
Cape Verde season can last well into October, the period 1760 -1790 had a lot of them.

[dwg71]

9/11 is the latest we had our first hurricane in the last 60+ years and that was 2002 and that year ended 12/4/2. But there is not a substantial link between time of storms and activity levels of seasons - that I am aware of anyway.

[wxmann_91]

I'm just wondering if the conditions were to stay similar to how they are now (and how they have been) yes I know MJO is coming, and yes the SAL is disipating a bit..but I just wonder at what point will it realistically shift away from the CV style system and more concerned with Carribean/homebrew style systems?

In terms of meeting those lofty early season predictions of 17 named storms and 9 hurricanes we probably need Debby and Ernesto by Sept 1, both reaching hurricane status, still plenty of time. You could still easily get 3-4 more hurricanes in Sept. and 2-3 in Oct, plus 1 more late season hurricane. No Debby by 9/1 then those 17/9 numbers are toast.
There is still plenty of time to meet an average season, but no
Debby by 9/10 then it gets dicey, there are some very active Octobers in the seasons past and with the way above average warm water anamolies in the North Atlantic I doubt the season ends early.
Cape Verde season can last well into October, the period 1760 -1790 had a lot of them.

If an El Nino develops, and we don't get another storm this month, then NS predictions over 15 are toast.

[rainstorm]

aug 15 is the beginning of the heart of cane season. every day that passes without a cane diminishes the threat to everyone.

[ConvergenceZone]

The Cape Verde season usually lasts through the end of September(though some years it can end earlier than others). In October, almost all storms develop close to land(Caribbean, Gulf, Western Atlantic).

wow, that is pretty amazing that already we only have one month left of CV season.

[Regit]

The Cape Verde season usually lasts through the end of September(though some years it can end earlier than others). In October, almost all storms develop close to land(Caribbean, Gulf, Western Atlantic).

wow, that is pretty amazing that already we only have one month left of CV season.

To clarify, October 1 is about 46 days away.

[tgenius]

In any case, it seems like (thankfully) the cards are not there for Atlantic storm development..obviously this is with a grain of salt and things can change, but I am for one, hoping we maintain status quo.

[wxwatcher91]

aug 15 is the beginning of the heart of cane season. every day that passes without a cane diminishes the threat to everyone.

The peak of hurricane season is September 10th, so really we still have another month of ramping up, and also remember that last year the peak actually occurred in October and that August was the least active out of July through October. Perhaps once again August is just a lull in the action relative to the rest of the season.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If it go's past September first with no cape verde storms. or no other storm forming period in the Atlatnic. Then we will be pass the point where the chances of getting more then 8 or so named storms will be going down. In with a developing El nino it should cut out around the end of September.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Every year for mainly the past 10 the season pretty much shifted late. Except for last year of course. I think alot of people are going to wish that didn't wish. There coming. NOAA and GREYs' team know alot more then we do.

[george_r_1961]

aug 15 is the beginning of the heart of cane season. every day that passes without a cane diminishes the threat to everyone.

There have been some notable september and october storms...more than a few. Have you forgotten Isabel???? Rita??? Mitch?? Wilma???

I think I have enough facts to back up my statement.

[rainstorm]

im simply saying that aug15-oct15 is the heart of the season and every day that passes without a cane diminishes the threat to everyone

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/special_gifs/trop_lant4col.gif

nowhere in the atlantic are conditions favorable. a whole string of upper lows stretches from the gom to the azores

[Scorpion]

I remember last year the NHC said "The Atlantic is plagued by upper-level lows". And this was 2005.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It has to do if a El nino forms if so then it will cut the sysem off earlier. As of right now things are becoming more faverable for development. Weaker Tutt and SAL is not as strong. But the mid level dry air is keeping everything so far from forming.

[benny]

It is tough to get an active season without a hurricane (or with a quiet August) before Sept 1. But 2001 and 1961 didn't have any big problems after a quiet August...