Invest 93L,SE Carolinas,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[curtadams]

I'm curious what's so unfavorable for convection. Water is reasonably warm, air is moist on WV and SAL; but these convective pops keep evaporating. The globals seem to know what it is because they all show what's happening - weakening of a low as it drifts north. But what is it?

I think it is getting some wind shear from the ULL's close by.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor1.html

There is currently 10-20kts of shear nearby the system, with 30kts not so far off.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

10-20kts of shear doesn't suppress convection much - it just smears it out. Look at the convective bursts - they evaporate; they're not being blown away.

[Thunder44]

If it can stay between the two upper lows to it's west and east may have better chance to develop tomorrow. But we all know what happened to the last system that tried that.

[wxmann_91]

10-20kts of shear doesn't suppress convection much - it just smears it out. Look at the convective bursts - they evaporate; they're not being blown away.

10-20kts of shear, coupled with bone dry air, is quite deadly for any type of convection.

Coupled with that strong Bermuda/Azores High which induces strong easterlies (which mean strong SAL and easterly surges), along with a few ULL's to bout, it's pretty hostile.

Also the MJO has been very weak which means the favorable phase of it usually fizzles in the Atlantic.

[Sanibel]

As is parr for 2006, system is apparently under weak cyclogenesis with both top and lower levels co-located and starting to swirl. This is very slow in process.

Convection should migrate from deeper south extensions of banding into center and pop if storm strengthens. This one could break through and suddenly convect and form in this east coast pocket "homebrew" area away from the main open Atlantic ULL's etc.

System under slow development near Gulf Stream to west.

[Thunder44]

448
WHXX01 KWBC 151830
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932006) ON 20060815 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060815 1800 060816 0600 060816 1800 060817 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.4N 75.3W 31.6N 75.9W 32.5N 76.4W 32.4N 76.7W
BAMM 30.4N 75.3W 31.7N 75.6W 32.7N 75.8W 33.1N 76.0W
A98E 30.4N 75.3W 31.1N 75.4W 32.2N 75.6W 32.9N 74.4W
LBAR 30.4N 75.3W 31.2N 75.2W 32.3N 75.1W 33.5N 74.9W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060817 1800 060818 1800 060819 1800 060820 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 31.5N 77.1W 28.5N 80.5W 26.1N 86.5W 25.0N 92.7W
BAMM 33.0N 75.9W 31.0N 76.5W 29.1N 77.5W 27.6N 78.5W
A98E 33.0N 72.7W 31.4N 70.6W 30.7N 68.0W 30.9N 66.0W
LBAR 34.5N 74.1W 38.4N 72.4W 41.5N 69.0W 44.4N 59.1W
SHIP 42KTS 45KTS 43KTS 39KTS
DSHP 42KTS 45KTS 43KTS 39KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.4N LONCUR = 75.3W DIRCUR = 355DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 29.9N LONM12 = 75.1W DIRM12 = 337DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 29.5N LONM24 = 75.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[skysummit]

I didn't see this posted in the thread yet...

[x-y-no]

If it can stay between the two upper lows to it's west and east may have better chance to develop tomorrow. But we all know what happened to the last system that tried that.

Yeah, that worked out real well for Chris, didn't it?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Based on the ship and buoy data it has a east,north, and south wind so far. At the surface it is some what elongated from north to south. But it looks to becoming slowly better organized. The center is around 30.5/75.5. Theres a new blow up moving slowly northward. In which if that gets pulled into the center and holds. Heck this could organize into a TD. The only wind I don't have data for yet is a west wind. But there doe's look to be some clouds pulling that way.

[Yankeegirl]

Any models on where it might go?

[Trugunzn]

Interesting

[NONAME]

What is Interesting?

[Thunder44]

Low pressure center seems to be getting better defined on visible imagery, but like most systems this year, it's lacking convection over the center.

[Nimbus]

Trough should pull it off to the northeast. If it approaches North Carolina they might give it tropical storm status just to be on the safe side. The gulf stream is warm but with the dry air and shear there might not be much intensification.

[skysummit]

Are the models that afraid of the Carolinas???

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

000
FXUS61 KCAR 151750
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
150 PM EDT TUE AUG 15 2006

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE HPC GRIDS IN THE LONG TERM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. LATEST GFS SHOWS THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT
REACHES THE COAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD THEN START TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEA
THER.

This seem to be backed up by the OPC 96hr chart:



Question is what will 93L be by then (+120 hr), and what interactions may occurr between it and the forming frontal wave? Should be interesting to see what happens.

[sunnyday]

I don't wish a storm on anyone, but if this develops, I'm glad it's not moving south.

[CrazyC83]

Still don't really like the looks of this. I feel this is less of a concern than the Loop Current blob. I'd give it a 20% chance of development.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 152054
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE AUG 15 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST
OF THE SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO
FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY...IF NECESSARY.


5:30 PM TWO.

[Bane]

I still think it has a good a chance as any of the invests to develop.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I see two vort maxs/LLC along the north to south trough line. One at 29 north/75.5 west. Another at 31 north/75.5 west. I would say the southern one is very weak in will likely be opening up soon. The north one which has little convection but has buoy data showing that there is eastly wind to its north...Which its sharper any way you look at it. I would say if convection can form over the northern one then chances of development look good. If not then it will likely open back up in 12 hours.