Central Gulf Blob
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Central Gulf Blob
Central Gulf Blob is firing up pretty good today and if I remember correctly it should move south and be shear by ULL over FLA. as it passes to the north, lets see what happens in the coming days. Probably POOF but it's too close to home to ignore.
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I just found this at the New Orleans AFD
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A STALLED FRONT AN
UPPER LOW AND A STRONGLY INVERTED TROUGH. THE UPPER LOW CLOSEST TO
FLA WILL MOVE WEST WHILE THE UPPER LOW FARTHER WEST WILL STAY NEAR
THE BAHAMAS. AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE GA/AL/TN BORDERS IS
INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER LOW CLOSEST TO FLA CAUSING A STRONGLY
DIVERGENT AREA ALOFT WHERE THE TWO RELATIVE FLOWS SPLIT. THIS IS
HELPING TO INDUCE LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS. IT IS ALSO CAUSING AN
AREA OF VERY WEAK SHEAR ALOFT OVER AND AROUND 28N 88W. THIS IS
WHERE SH/TS CONTINUE TO FESTER OVER THE GULF. MODELS CONTINUE TO
MOVE THIS AREA SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND EVEN CREATE A
CONVECTIVE SFC CIRCULATION WITH IT EVENTUALLY. PLACEMENT OF
CIRCULATION DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL ONE LOOKS AT. NO MATTER WHERE
OR IF A CIRCULATION DEVELOPS IT WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH THE
UPPER LOW CREATING A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT...BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE COURSE AND STRENGTH OF
THE UPPER LOW.
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A STALLED FRONT AN
UPPER LOW AND A STRONGLY INVERTED TROUGH. THE UPPER LOW CLOSEST TO
FLA WILL MOVE WEST WHILE THE UPPER LOW FARTHER WEST WILL STAY NEAR
THE BAHAMAS. AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE GA/AL/TN BORDERS IS
INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER LOW CLOSEST TO FLA CAUSING A STRONGLY
DIVERGENT AREA ALOFT WHERE THE TWO RELATIVE FLOWS SPLIT. THIS IS
HELPING TO INDUCE LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS. IT IS ALSO CAUSING AN
AREA OF VERY WEAK SHEAR ALOFT OVER AND AROUND 28N 88W. THIS IS
WHERE SH/TS CONTINUE TO FESTER OVER THE GULF. MODELS CONTINUE TO
MOVE THIS AREA SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND EVEN CREATE A
CONVECTIVE SFC CIRCULATION WITH IT EVENTUALLY. PLACEMENT OF
CIRCULATION DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL ONE LOOKS AT. NO MATTER WHERE
OR IF A CIRCULATION DEVELOPS IT WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH THE
UPPER LOW CREATING A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT...BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE COURSE AND STRENGTH OF
THE UPPER LOW.
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SouthFloridawx
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I believe this is being discussed in the thread.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88234
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88234
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gatorcane
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there must be a surface low, latest NHC maps show one:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html
click on fronts
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html
click on fronts
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HurricaneGirl
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alan1961
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gatorcane wrote:there must be a surface low, latest NHC maps show one:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html
click on fronts
cheers gator
..the visual loop didn't work..glad you got the avn in 
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KFDM Meteorologist
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SouthAlabamaWX
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KFDM Meteorologist wrote:This system may develop. Not seeing much shear on Satellite. West to southwest motion with high over southern Plains. Could be a problem for South Texas.
You are exactly right. Conditions are favorable for development in the western Gulf and the system should move towards South Texas.
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