GFS...hinting a development in next 144hrs

[Weathermaster]

GFS is hinting a development just south of the Cape Verde islands. The interesting thing is that there will be a strong high pressure in the Atlantic, with very low shear.

I believe next week we will see the true beginning of the Cape Verde season.

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/

[Stormcenter]

I hope you are wrong.

[HUC]

Me to,or at best a fish....

[Lindaloo]

I hope you are wrong.

[Frank2]

But, for the same period, the GFS has also been showing the ridge moving eastward, and, a quasi-stationary strong trough off the northeast U.S. coast, so, anything that does form would likely recurve early, if it's not at a low latitude...

Frank

[MetroMike]

I hope you are right.

[wxmann_91]

I don't see it. And, I also see that GFS is forecasting a SAL/easterly surge and an upswing in EPAC activity at around the same time.

[SouthFloridawx]

I don't see it. And, I also see that GFS is forecasting a SAL/easterly surge and an upswing in EPAC activity at around the same time.

Where do you see the GFS forecast for SAL?

[wxmann_91]

I don't see it. And, I also see that GFS is forecasting a SAL/easterly surge and an upswing in EPAC activity at around the same time.

Where do you see the GFS forecast for SAL?

Look at the 850 mb vorticity and winds map. Near the end, note how the 850 mb winds increase to 30 kt, just as an area of negative vorticity rolls thru.

[WindRunner]

I don't see it. And, I also see that GFS is forecasting a SAL/easterly surge and an upswing in EPAC activity at around the same time.

I don't see any hints of development either. I also, however, don't see any reflection of a SAL surge at the 950mb level, though the 700mb level shows it very well. I'm not exactly sure if SAL would show at the lower levels, but if it should, it's very weak.

[sealbach]

that far out it's in lala land.

[Stormcenter]

GFS is hinting a development just south of the Cape Verde islands. The interesting thing is that there will be a strong high pressure in the Atlantic, with very low shear.

I believe next week we will see the true beginning of the Cape Verde season.

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/

Unfortunately it has a tendency to "hint" a lot.

[Derek Ortt]

anything beyond 3-4 days is a wild guess by the models

[Swimdude]

You know, in the middle of August, the models darn well should be showing development in the next TWELVE days. A BUNCH can happen at the peak of hurricane season in 12 long days.

[SouthFloridawx]

I don't see it. And, I also see that GFS is forecasting a SAL/easterly surge and an upswing in EPAC activity at around the same time.

Where do you see the GFS forecast for SAL?

Look at the 850 mb vorticity and winds map. Near the end, note how the 850 mb winds increase to 30 kt, just as an area of negative vorticity rolls thru.

Ahhh I didn't know that's how you can forecast SAL surges. Interesting.

[AussieMark]

144 hrs out is not very accurate I thought?

[wxmann_91]

144 hrs out is not very accurate I thought?

It isn't. But I was just arguing against the title of the thread, in that what the GFS advertises at 144 hr is not hinting development, because in fact it is hinting at a strong easterly surge, the exact opposite of what one would look for in a developmental situation.