GOM System (Ex 95L)

[CrazyC83]

It's almost dead over the Loop Current as well. It seems to have a partial circulation.

Should be 95L.Invest soon...

[BreinLa]

Okay the NHC says its not moving much, now I'm interested. Oh and Derek your statement "just a blob, no big deal" sorry bud everything sitting south of the Gulf Coast is a big deal to most of us.

[CrazyC83]

Okay the NHC says its not moving much, now I'm interested. Oh and Derek your statement "just a blob, no big deal" sorry bud everything sitting south of the Gulf Coast is a big deal to most of us.

Especially considering this blob is almost right on top of the Loop Current and barely moving. We have seen time and time again what that does (although not for a developing system).

I'd give it a 60% chance of development (which is far more than I give to 93L).

[miamicanes177]

I heard a pro met or two express concerns about the thunderstorms being able maintain themselves for at least 24 hours. I see only 5kts of wind shear in the gulf and very little dry air, so what would cause this not to develop? Boiling GOM and mid August.

[skysummit]

Geraldo should be arriving in Lake Charles by 8:00 p.m.

[hicksta]

i can hear the media hyping a new orleans hit already!!

[skysummit]

The northern edge of the colder cloud tops are probably only 40 - 50 miles to my south. I can see them towering from where I am right now. Other than that....the heat index is 113 degrees.

[BreinLa]

Real funny skysummit

[Rainband]

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH...HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.



5:30 PM TWO.

I thought it was moving wsw??

[Stormtrack]

JBs afternoon post said this is coming to TX. I just hope it comes close enough to bring me some rain! I wouldn't even mind a nice weak TS along the central or upper TX coast with some breezy winds (to make it feel cooler).

Don't get your hopes up. Remember we're under high pressure. Houston TV ch. 2 met says it's going into south Texas or Northern Mexico.

[zoeyann]

Hey Sky it's bringing some rain and thuder. Think it's heading North into Houma. Enjoy

[skysummit]

JBs afternoon post said this is coming to TX. I just hope it comes close enough to bring me some rain! I wouldn't even mind a nice weak TS along the central or upper TX coast with some breezy winds (to make it feel cooler).

Don't get your hopes up. Remember we're under high pressure. Houston TV ch. 2 met says it's going into south Texas or Northern Mexico.

That sounds like the most logical scenario at this point.

[CrazyC83]

i can hear the media hyping a new orleans hit already!!

Considering it is not even an Invest yet and that path is blocked by a ridge (unless it moves westward), it is way too soon for such.

[jasons2k]

JBs afternoon post said this is coming to TX. I just hope it comes close enough to bring me some rain! I wouldn't even mind a nice weak TS along the central or upper TX coast with some breezy winds (to make it feel cooler).

Don't get your hopes up. Remember we're under high pressure. Houston TV ch. 2 met says it's going into south Texas or Northern Mexico.

Yep, even IF anything happened, it's not going to plow into this high anchored over us right now. They might send Geraldo to South Padre - but not Lake Charles, that's for sure.

[caneman]

This is the system the rolled over Tampa yesterday. It was a doozy with some areas receiving 6 inches of rain in just a short period of time with lots of Thunder and Lightning

[jasons2k]

It looked to me like most of what happened in Tampa yesterday was from multiple seabreeze and outflow boundries that converged right at the peak of afternoon heating, but that was just me glancing at the radar, I didn't follow it overnight....

[duris]

i can hear the media hyping a new orleans hit already!!

Considering it is not even an Invest yet and that path is blocked by a ridge (unless it moves westward), it is way too soon for such.

Yep. Afternoon NO AFD:

ANOTHER INTERESTING FEATURE NOTED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR IS A
RATHER LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED
OFFSHORE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
WEAK AND BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA UNDERNEATH THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX WITH NICE ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS. SHEAR
WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD INCREASE AS THE UPPER LOW OVER EAST FL
RETROGRADES WEST...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED TO SEE IF
CONVECTION PERSISTS AND SURFACE PRESSURES LOWER OVER THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS. WHATEVER BECOMES OF THIS...MID/UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
OVER OUR AREA SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM WEST TOWARDS TEXAS AND
MEXICO.

[Brandon007]

I don't know about you guys but this thing kinda freaks me out I know you guys are saying its not likely to develop but it gives you a bad feeling when something that big is basically sitting in your back yard

[Grease Monkey]

Why do I smell another failed mutation offered by the 2006 season?

[jasons2k]

I don't know about you guys but this thing kinda freaks me out I know you guys are saying its not likely to develop but it gives you a bad feeling when something that big is basically sitting in your back yard

IMO you seriously have nothing to worry about with this. I'd be more worried about those repeated MCS complexes coming down from your north than this...