Invest 93L,SE Carolinas,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Lowpressure]

I think organization wise, it looks much better. But, as posted here above, lack on convection so LLC development may be slow to occur. I see a depression here by this time tomorrow.

[vacanechaser]

I don't wish a storm on anyone, but if this develops, I'm glad it's not moving south.

i for one wish it would develop some and makes it way up here... southeast va... my grass crunches when you walk on it... we have not seen rain in about 10-20 days.... there has been some around the area, but not here.. seems to dodge us..



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[cheezyWXguy]

I don't wish a storm on anyone, but if this develops, I'm glad it's not moving south.

i for one wish it would develop some and makes it way up here... southeast va... my grass crunches when you walk on it... we have not seen rain in about 10-20 days.... there has been some around the area, but not here.. seems to dodge us..



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

10-20 days? Are you kidding? Thats nothing...come live in texas and find out that dallas hasnt had a significant rain since July 3rd

[ronjon]

I don't wish a storm on anyone, but if this develops, I'm glad it's not moving south.

I wouldn't be so sure just yet. The 18Z runs of both the BAMM and BAMD move 93L back toward the S-SW after 36-48 hrs. The GFDL also stalls the storm off NC and moves it SW toward the GA coast. The latest 18Z NAM stalls the system after 36 hrs and turns it SW into NE FL. A large building high looks like it will prevent it from moving north after the next day or two. Not sure if this will act to tear whatever develops apart but what remains seems to be shoved toward the FL east coast.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

[Rainband]

The ull is scheduled to move west. Then game may be on. Hope you get your rain

[Sanibel]

As weak as it is, this system has a surface feature swirling in tandem with a mid-level swirl. It has no convection and could wipe out, but it is definitely a system. Wipe out, flare up - who knows?

[NONAME]

Yes All this would most likely take is a Big Flare up of Convection for a Few hours to become a depression it low and mid level organization is good but last convection.

[huricanagadzi]

What Invest, Depresion?

[Rainband]

What Invest, Depresion?

http://152.80.49.216/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A invest is a area of interest put out by the navy/nhc. Which they can run models,track and watch the system as it develops.

A depression is any system that has a low level cirulation=a closed wind field. With at least one isobar around it. Normally with at least 25 mph why because it takes at least for the winds to close the cirulation. Also you need convection to form a warm core to make the temperature difference that makes the winds.

[huricanagadzi]

ok thanks much

[Rainband]

A invest is a area of interest put out by the navy/nhc. Which they can run models,track and watch the system as it develops.

A depression is any system that has a low level cirulation=a closed wind field. With at least one isobar around it. Normally with at least 25 mph why because it takes at least for the winds to close the cirulation. Also you need convection to form a warm core to make the temperature difference that makes the winds.

Nice Job Matt

[whereverwx]

93L really hasn't changed at all in organization over the past 36 hours... still the same old sheared mess.

http://www.fileden.com/files/18324/93lbyebye.gif

[Canelaw99]

The 18Z runs of both the BAMM and BAMD move 93L back toward the S-SW after 36-48 hrs. The GFDL also stalls the storm off NC and moves it SW toward the GA coast. The latest 18Z NAM stalls the system after 36 hrs and turns it SW into NE FL. A large building high looks like it will prevent it from moving north after the next day or two. Not sure if this will act to tear whatever develops apart but what remains seems to be shoved toward the FL east coast.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

It better not mess with the FL coast. Atlantis is on the pad poised for launch next week, and while this thing wouldn't interfere with the launch itself, I don't want it even thinking about strengthening to threaten pulling her in or something. If it wants to rain with a few storms, that's fine, but I, for one, could do without anything developing

[cheezyWXguy]

Well a new burst of convection is forming right smack in the middle...its tiny, but i think it could boost it to TD if it expands and persists


NRL pic

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 15

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 30.5 75.2 355./ 2.9
6 31.0 75.9 311./ 8.0
12 32.0 76.4 332./10.0
18 32.4 76.6 336./ 5.0
24 32.6 76.9 297./ 3.6
30 32.8 77.4 294./ 4.5
36 32.8 78.0 266./ 5.3
42 32.7 78.3 261./ 2.6
48 32.6 78.6 243./ 2.9
54 32.3 79.0 236./ 4.0
60 32.3 79.7 265./ 5.6
66 32.2 80.4 268./ 6.1
72 32.0 81.3 258./ 8.5
78 31.7 82.4 252./ 9.2
84 31.5 83.5 261./ 9.6
90 31.6 84.3 275./ 6.8
96 31.9 84.7 304./ 4.1
102 31.8 85.3 264./ 5.7
108 31.9 86.0 281./ 6.2
114 32.2 86.1 349./ 3.0
120 32.4 85.6 66./ 4.3
126 32.8 86.3 299./ 6.4



18z GFDL.

[Normandy]

93L really hasn't changed at all in organization over the past 36 hours... still the same old sheared mess.

http://www.fileden.com/files/18324/93lbyebye.gif

I think u should give it more credit....it looks MUCH better than when it did 36 hours ago.

[Recurve]

Look at the cyclonic action at Jacksonville. An ULL drawing away the convection?
This
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rb.html

[SCMedic]

I have to say, and I usually refrain from throwing in an uneducated, enthusiasts opinion, but there are a number of professional products and the NHC, that are forecasting 93l to improve in both organization and convection. I'm going to tend to lean towards them over the undereducated(pro-mets not included) opinions of this board. It makes me laugh to read the threads on here when people start to freak out, and become naysayers as soon as cyclogenesis isn't immediate.

Give it some time, see what it does. I have a hard time believing that the products that are put out, that show development, are ALL wrong...

I'm off my soapbox now...

[Rainband]

Time will tell but as of now it looks like hell.