GOM System (Ex 95L)
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- Yankeegirl
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- Yankeegirl
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Brandon007 wrote:I don't know about you guys but this thing kinda freaks me out I know you guys are saying its not likely to develop but it gives you a bad feeling when something that big is basically sitting in your back yard
These days we stay vigilant but try not to think about possible bad things too much. Kinda put the mind on cruise control until someone says jump.
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- Extremeweatherguy
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I keep hearing this should move W or WSW, but if you look at Satellite wouldn't that motion take it into Central TX? I don't see how this would get far enough south to be a north Mexico issue.
Also once it got near land shouldn't it turn more WNW?
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dlm1.GIF

Also once it got near land shouldn't it turn more WNW?
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dlm1.GIF
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Extremeweatherguy wrote:I keep hearing this should move W or WSW, but if you look at Satellite wouldn't that motion take it into Central TX? I don't see how this would get far enough south to be a north Mexico issue.
Also once it got near land shouldn't it turn more WNW?
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dlm1.GIF
It depends on if and where the LLC forms.
It is weakening now. The tops are warming. May not need to worry about direction
The cloud tops have warmed a bit from earlier but for overall the thunderstorms continue to persist and form. There is still plenty of outflow alot and some inflow at low-levels going on. I don't expect this go away this evening.
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- Extremeweatherguy
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- wxman57
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vbhoutex wrote:A look at the visible sat pic shows no turning imo, just a lot of outflow boundaries. As the NO AFD states it needs to be watched, but ATM I don't give this much chance to develop further. I could be eating crow soon though.
Fortunately, the disturbance is located in a region of relatively high surface observations. All observations indicate no LLC. Some good news is that cloud tops have warmed within the past hour, an indication of weakening.
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- Extremeweatherguy
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wxman57 wrote:vbhoutex wrote:A look at the visible sat pic shows no turning imo, just a lot of outflow boundaries. As the NO AFD states it needs to be watched, but ATM I don't give this much chance to develop further. I could be eating crow soon though.
Fortunately, the disturbance is located in a region of relatively high surface observations. All observations indicate no LLC. Some good news is that cloud tops have warmed within the past hour, an indication of weakening.
Just got home from work. I can't access 2K from my job. Something about message boards that blocks me.....

Are these ships obs? b/c I had heard on another blog of dropping pressures reported by nearby ships.
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- Lowpressure
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- wxman57
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I plotted the 21Z ship/buoy obs and made a 1mb analysis of the Gulf. The disturbance is within the red circle at the tail end of a surface trof that extends east through Florida. There's a small meso-high over the NW Gulf west of the disturbance. Clearly, no evidence of an LLC out there, just a sufrace trof.
For an LLC to develop, the thunderstorms will need to persist at least though mid day tomorrow. Already, there are signs of weakening, but I do expect at least some fluctuations overnight. With any luck, this blob will be gone by tomorrow morning as another blob moves southward into the Gulf:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/95L.gif
For an LLC to develop, the thunderstorms will need to persist at least though mid day tomorrow. Already, there are signs of weakening, but I do expect at least some fluctuations overnight. With any luck, this blob will be gone by tomorrow morning as another blob moves southward into the Gulf:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/95L.gif
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