GOM System (Ex 95L)

[wxman57]

just a blob, no big deal

Thanks. I was hoping someone would say that. Don't want to deal with a storm this weekend.

Whether it develops or not, it is moving to the southwest away from Mississippi. Very well-established steering currents due to a high center in the mid-levels of the atmosphere centered over SW LA.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I plotted the 21Z ship/buoy obs and made a 1mb analysis of the Gulf. The disturbance is within the red circle at the tail end of a surface trof that extends east through Florida. There's a small meso-high over the NW Gulf west of the disturbance. Clearly, no evidence of an LLC out there, just a sufrace trof.

For an LLC to develop, the thunderstorms will need to persist at least though mid day tomorrow. Already, there are signs of weakening, but I do expect at least some fluctuations overnight. With any luck, this blob will be gone by tomorrow morning as another blob moves southward into the Gulf:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/95L.gif

The NHC places a 1014mb low to the NE of that red circle.

[Stratosphere747]

They are estimates only...

[Thunder44]

There seems to be at least a MLC somewhere in the middle of that blob. I'm seeing more anti-cyclonic rotation on satellite imagery.

[Portastorm]

... With any luck, this blob will be gone by tomorrow morning as another blob moves southward into the Gulf:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/95L.gif

C'mon 57 ... we could really use a day or two of rain here in south central Texas .. don't be so quick to wish this away. I don't want a named system but sure would like some rain and sub 100-degree highs for a day or two before the August Blast Furnace returns.

[Normandy]

Oh blobs and how they tease.

[wxman57]

I plotted the 21Z ship/buoy obs and made a 1mb analysis of the Gulf. The disturbance is within the red circle at the tail end of a surface trof that extends east through Florida. There's a small meso-high over the NW Gulf west of the disturbance. Clearly, no evidence of an LLC out there, just a sufrace trof.

For an LLC to develop, the thunderstorms will need to persist at least though mid day tomorrow. Already, there are signs of weakening, but I do expect at least some fluctuations overnight. With any luck, this blob will be gone by tomorrow morning as another blob moves southward into the Gulf:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/95L.gif

The NHC places a 1014mb low to the NE of that red circle.

That would be about right. I could have drawn the 1014mb line a bit more to the north next to the red circle. With buoys reporting 1013.7mb, the 1014mb low by the NHC is more than just an estimate. It's supported by surface obs. May not be a closed low there, but there's a trof.

[wxman57]

... With any luck, this blob will be gone by tomorrow morning as another blob moves southward into the Gulf:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/95L.gif

C'mon 57 ... we could really use a day or two of rain here in south central Texas .. don't be so quick to wish this away. I don't want a named system but sure would like some rain and sub 100-degree highs for a day or two before the August Blast Furnace returns.

Steering currents may take it into northern Mexico as opposed to the Austin area. There's a pretty strong high over east TX/west LA. I love the heat, though. Give me 100 degrees over 60 degrees ANY day!

[Portastorm]

Indeed! The high appears to be going nowhere fast. Hard to imagine any west-moving disturbance doing anything but that ... thanks for the analyses.

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Humm,a test invest 63L for GOM pops up with pic at the main site of NRL.

[sevenleft]

Probably on its way to becoming 95L.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Invest 63L is something I'v not seen. Also this is a MLC/MCC. I'v seen system form this way but the chances are low for this.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I heard on the local news that the high should move northeast for a few days starting Friday and allow some moisure to work into the Houston area. Wouldn't this also leave a window for this system to come through with some heavier rains?

[CrazyC83]

I'd declare it 95L now personally...

[CrazyC83]

Is it just me, or is an EYE trying to form?

[sevenleft]

NRL added a few more sat products to the "63L" page. Its probably going to be 95L here in a few minutes.

[sevenleft]

Is it just me, or is an EYE trying to form?

There is no eye. Its just a break in the convection.

[rockyman]

NRL has the "center" at 27/90

[jasons2k]

Uh-oh, looks like they may make an invest out of this

:whips out the crystal ball:

Certain members of the board go nuts...looking for ANY ounce of hope of this plowing straight into Freeport as a hurricane...and post relentlessly "the NAVY says it may develop" any time a pro met says it's not closed and is heading to Mexico and "Channel so-and-so said the ridge is migrating to CANADA" ...only to be disappointed as another system does exactly what the pros say it's gonna do...

[ROCK]

yep, 95L on the way it seems....