GOM System (Ex 95L)

[Agua]

oh my god....people are -removed- a blob.

[sevenleft]

Invest cancel?

[Stormcenter]

Convection appears to be diminishing this evening without not much signs of regeneration. We'll probably see this down to a mid-level swirl late tonight with little convection left.

Let's see what happens after midnight.

Anyway, I think we need to start facing reality that is in fact going to turn out to be an "average" season after all is said and done. We after all we deserve it after 2005.

[benny]

all it takes to be an above average season is a wickedly active september.. like 1961.. that being said... doesn't look pretty right now especialy with the pacific acting up...

[Rainband]

After all is said and done??? Nothing much has been said and obviously nothing is done yet

[Stormcenter]

After all is said and done??? Nothing much has been said and obviously nothing is done yet

Good reply.

[Stormavoider]

As the convection is subsiding, you can better see some organization and turning!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[Dean4Storms]

After all is said and done??? Nothing much has been said and obviously nothing is done yet

That sounds more like 6 beers talkin!

[Thunder44]

Convection appears to be diminishing this evening without not much signs of regeneration. We'll probably see this down to a mid-level swirl late tonight with little convection left.

Let's see what happens after midnight.

Anyway, I think we need to start facing reality that is in fact going to turn out to be an "average" season after all is said and done. We after all deserve it after 2005.

I think some of the low-level outflow from the thunderstorms complex dropping from SE states is starting to prevent the inflow from coming into the system on the north side. Also there appears to be another weak ULL forming over the central GOM, just to the SW.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

[wxman57]

Convection does appear to be diminishing this evening. Good sign. As for steering currents, I plotted the 18Z GFS 700-400mb mean flow here:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/95La.gif

The Xs indicate the position today and tomorrow. Might mov ea bit farther than that lower left X, though. In any case, the key to development would be if the convection can re-fire and persist for 18-24 hours. Looks like that's not happening.

GFS indicates another vort max moving south into the Gulf tomorrow morning. That one may take over as the main complex in the Gulf.

[Derek Ortt]

and one cannot forecast development all of the time either

I perfer the conservative approach, that way, when developmen is forecast, it is taken much mroe seriously

[SouthFloridawx]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 160009
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.


...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK 1014 MB LOW IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N86W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 88W-92W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S FLORIDA FROM
25N-27N BETWEEN 80W-82W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF 20N88W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OFF THE FLORIDA E COAST NEAR
30N80W. NLY CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS UPPER LEVEL NELY FLOW. EXPECT...
CONTINUED CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_18Z.gif

[Rainband]

After all is said and done??? Nothing much has been said and obviously nothing is done yet

That sounds more like 6 beers talkin!

Correct

[jabber]

The year of the "POOF"

[Nimbus]

Can't find any recent surface observations. The best chance for organization would be during the diurnal max in the afternoon perhaps a little further southwest away from the shear.

Most of the invests this year have been long shots but it is better to stay on top of things after last year. The media doesn't start the hype machine until we get a named storm, so the early invests are not causing any disruptions for the public.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ngp ... 12/52.html

NOGAPS

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/nam ... 518/3.html

NAM

[Dean4Storms]

There is currently a strong MCS moving out of south Alabama into the Panhandle and extending to over near Mobile. Many Severe TS Warnings and even a Tornado Warning or two have come out of it. Maybe something too watch as it moves out into the Gulf come tomorrow AM as wxman57 indicated.

[mtm4319]

GFS indicates another vort max moving south into the Gulf tomorrow morning. That one may take over as the main complex in the Gulf.

I think I'm about to get that vort max right now, and everyone else from Gulfport to Destin. Severe t'storm warning, quarter-size hail, winds up to 60mph possible.
Pretty clear to see right here:

[cycloneye]

Officially 95L !!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like its going POOF!