SAL is lessening its grip

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boca
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SAL is lessening its grip

#1 Postby boca » Sun Aug 13, 2006 8:36 pm

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... java5.html

5 day loop of SAL, seems to be steched out a bit and not as dense.
Last edited by boca on Sun Aug 13, 2006 8:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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willjnewton

#2 Postby willjnewton » Sun Aug 13, 2006 8:38 pm

that's good than maybe that this 2006 storm season will get active rapidly afterall
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 13, 2006 8:39 pm

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 61#1414261

boca,I posted about it a few days ago.Yes,it's lessening a bit now.
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#4 Postby boca » Sun Aug 13, 2006 8:40 pm

Thanks Luis and also the wet MJO phase will be upon us in 1 to 2 weeks.
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#5 Postby willjnewton » Sun Aug 13, 2006 8:42 pm

this is all great news to hear because I would like to see when all this activity will pick up and get more active so thanks for posting this
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#6 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Aug 13, 2006 8:46 pm

I noticed it was less but the last couple of days it has really fallen of off africa. Thanks for posting that.
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#7 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 13, 2006 8:52 pm

boca wrote:Thanks Luis and also the wet MJO phase will be upon us in 1 to 2 weeks.


In other words boca,all the pieces of the puzzle are comming together in time for the peak of the season.
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#8 Postby boca » Sun Aug 13, 2006 8:55 pm

It seems like a 1000 puzzle count season this year.
Last edited by boca on Sun Aug 13, 2006 8:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#9 Postby tgenius » Sun Aug 13, 2006 8:55 pm

cycloneye wrote:
boca wrote:Thanks Luis and also the wet MJO phase will be upon us in 1 to 2 weeks.


In other words boca,all the pieces of the puzzle are comming together in time for the peak of the season.


I just don't want to think about this Luis... its one of those things I wish we could all lose our eyes and wake up in december.
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#10 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Aug 13, 2006 8:56 pm

boca wrote:It seems like a 500 puzzle count season this year.


Those are the easy ones...
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#11 Postby Jake8898 » Mon Aug 14, 2006 2:24 pm

willjnewton wrote:this is all great news to hear because I would like to see when all this activity will pick up and get more active so thanks for posting this


Great, now your sadistic appetite can be sated. Don't reply with the "I'm just fascinated with mother nature's beauty" bit either. The storm has to go somewhere. The real interest with these storms is watching their effect on land and people. No one sees video of it tossing waves around at sea and those that go fish see a rapid decline in interest.

Do some real introspection and contemplate whether it really is "great" that the season may become more active.
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#12 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 14, 2006 2:26 pm

Jake8898 wrote:
willjnewton wrote:this is all great news to hear because I would like to see when all this activity will pick up and get more active so thanks for posting this


Great, now your sadistic appetite can be sated. Don't reply with the "I'm just fascinated with mother nature's beauty" bit either. The storm has to go somewhere. The real interest with these storms is watching their effect on land and people. No one sees video of it tossing waves around at sea and those that go fish see a rapid decline in interest.

Do some real introspection and contemplate whether it really is "great" that the season may become more active.


edit - I just don't any more hurricanes.....
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#13 Postby Swimdude » Mon Aug 14, 2006 2:39 pm

Someone's going to have to check their PM box soon, is my guess...

I'm actually very interested to see what this season holds for us. Unlike most people predicted, this season hasn't been too much like 2004. It's actually closer to 2003 in my opinion, with when storms are forming, etc.

Nevertheless, just as I'm about to head inland for college, the season will begin to pick up, of course!
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#14 Postby SouthFloridawx » Tue Aug 15, 2006 7:37 pm

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html

Still not much SAL... Except for in the Central Atlantic.
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#15 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue Aug 15, 2006 7:58 pm

The recent tropical waves that have been moving off the African coastline for the past several weeks have been quite well-organized in terms of structure, banding, low pressures, and signs of attempting to vertically stack and consolidate convection, and have been progressively and gradually improving in terms of lower pressures and deeper structures. INVEST 94L is a great example. The structure of 94L as it approached and exited the African coastline was quite impressive, as was the wave signature of 94L. Had mid-level drier air mixed out more and had pressures been only slightly lower, 94L may well have developed due to favorable structure and banding supporting gradual consolidation of convection and stacking/thunderstorm formation, lower wave pressures of 94L, and a potential for favorable moderate anticyclonic flow to have established over 94L in the short term and down the road (especially if the unfavorable ULL/moderate TUTT-like trough in the west-central to central Atlantic weakened a bit more).

The synoptic signs, as well as impressive (and increasingly so) signature of the tropical waves exiting the African coastline for the past several weeks and even the past month or so to some degree, indicate that we may well soon see a rather significant rise in tropical activity and a more favorable mid-level air, pressure, and anticyclonic environment for the development of more Cape Verde systems. Those factors, along with climatology, may well boost it. The mid-level drier air from the Azores-Bermuda High has been slowly showing signs of mixing out, allowing a much more favorable wave development environment, and the mid-level SAL has been showing signs of gradually mixing out as well for the past several weeks. That, along with the impressive signature, banding, low pressures, and organization of the African waves for the past few months (and increasingly so in the past several weeks) and signs of mild favorable anticyclonic flow to favor Cape Verde development and rather favorable pressures, all indicate that it likely won't take much for the development of more tropical activity in the MDR/Cape Verde region - and quite possibly over the whole of the Atlantic Basin - to occur, commence, and get going. Only a slight decrease in the mid-level drier air/SAL and reduction/weakening of the mean ULL signatures in the central to west-central Atlantic may likely be needed to significantly favor development in the deep tropical Atlantic. In short, get ready for a potential upswing/burst in tropical development quite possibly down the road in around one and a half to two weeks or beyond. The synoptics, signs, and factors favor it in general.
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#16 Postby TheShrimper » Tue Aug 15, 2006 8:10 pm

Agreed, but thier progression westward will continue to be thwarted due to adverse upper lvel atmospheric conditions. Stick a fork in it.
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#17 Postby SouthFloridawx » Tue Aug 15, 2006 8:24 pm

Very good post CapeVerdeWave...

I always appricate your thoughts.
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#18 Postby boca » Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:29 pm

Good job capeverdewave
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#19 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:45 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:The recent tropical waves that have been moving off the African coastline for the past several weeks have been quite well-organized in terms of structure, banding, low pressures, and signs of attempting to vertically stack and consolidate convection, and have been progressively and gradually improving in terms of lower pressures and deeper structures. INVEST 94L is a great example. The structure of 94L as it approached and exited the African coastline was quite impressive, as was the wave signature of 94L. Had mid-level drier air mixed out more and had pressures been only slightly lower, 94L may well have developed due to favorable structure and banding supporting gradual consolidation of convection and stacking/thunderstorm formation, lower wave pressures of 94L, and a potential for favorable moderate anticyclonic flow to have established over 94L in the short term and down the road (especially if the unfavorable ULL/moderate TUTT-like trough in the west-central to central Atlantic weakened a bit more).

The synoptic signs, as well as impressive (and increasingly so) signature of the tropical waves exiting the African coastline for the past several weeks and even the past month or so to some degree, indicate that we may well soon see a rather significant rise in tropical activity and a more favorable mid-level air, pressure, and anticyclonic environment for the development of more Cape Verde systems. Those factors, along with climatology, may well boost it. The mid-level drier air from the Azores-Bermuda High has been slowly showing signs of mixing out, allowing a much more favorable wave development environment, and the mid-level SAL has been showing signs of gradually mixing out as well for the past several weeks. That, along with the impressive signature, banding, low pressures, and organization of the African waves for the past few months (and increasingly so in the past several weeks) and signs of mild favorable anticyclonic flow to favor Cape Verde development and rather favorable pressures, all indicate that it likely won't take much for the development of more tropical activity in the MDR/Cape Verde region - and quite possibly over the whole of the Atlantic Basin - to occur, commence, and get going. Only a slight decrease in the mid-level drier air/SAL and reduction/weakening of the mean ULL signatures in the central to west-central Atlantic may likely be needed to significantly favor development in the deep tropical Atlantic. In short, get ready for a potential upswing/burst in tropical development quite possibly down the road in around one and a half to two weeks or beyond. The synoptics, signs, and factors favor it in general.


Nice post, don't forget about the superficial nature of the water temps off Africa with 80F temps only very near the surface. One big problem with 94L was that the SSTs were only marginally favorable at those relatively high lattitudes. Had 94L been farther south it would have had a much higher chance for development. As we move into September, we'll see those 80F temps gradually deepen which will increase the chances of Cape Verde activity.
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#20 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue Aug 15, 2006 10:08 pm

boca wrote:Good job capeverdewave


Enough cheerleading.

Just kidding. Seriously, though, what are your real thoughts? Any comments/additional points or thoughts on the topic, issues, and points at hand? I'm very interested in hearing more thoughts and details. What are your thoughts on my points?
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