What is the point of no return for things to get going?

[cycloneye]

If Debby does not form during August,then September (5 Named systems) and october (3 Named Systems) and November (1 named system) have to act that way to then have a slightly above average season as that leads to 12 with the three that haved formed already.

[TheShrimper]

Personally, I see the season as being over as far as tracking long term systems. There are too many inhibiting factors, of which we all have eluded to, while watching the spawning grounds to the east. If troughs are as prevelent as they are, and have been so far, they will only stregnthen in thier southeasterly projection from here on out. There has been no lull in thier proclivity to develop so far, and don't expect that to change as the season progresses. The abundance of ULL's have continued to break down ridges, and alone have caused all potential waves to fizzle. If anything, look for a late Sept. thru mid Oct. stalled frontal boundry to spawn something homegrown. It will have to be a quick developer, with the frequency of frontal passages, to be considered a US threat. I would bet the greatest threat would be from the big bend area of Fl. south to the Keys, with a quick moving low end hurricane moving SW to the NE. Long trackers are not part of the equation this year folks....sorry.

[Jim Hughes]

It is tough to get an active season without a hurricane (or with a quiet August) before Sept 1. But 2001 and 1961 didn't have any big problems after a quiet August...

Those two years were very active space weather years Benny. Just like most of 2005 was. Space weather has been quieter in 2006 and the ATL has been quieter. Some people, like me, think it's the EL Nino effecting it. Well space weather controls the EL Nino also.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

When this season is over at least we got the south Atlantic to watch?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It is tough to get an active season without a hurricane (or with a quiet August) before Sept 1. But 2001 and 1961 didn't have any big problems after a quiet August...

Those two years were very active space weather years Benny. Just like most of 2005 was. Space weather has been quieter in 2006 and the ATL has been quieter. Some people, like me, think it's the EL Nino effecting it. Well space weather controls the EL Nino also.

Do you see a very big El nino coming?

[Thunder44]

When this season is over at least we got the south Atlantic to watch?

South Atlantic?

[miamicanes177]

I think we all need to realize that we have a 75% chance of an above normal season. And the best experts in the entire world believe we will have 7-9 hurricanes, with 3-4 of them being at least category 3 intensity. Get ready for a very active 8 weeks.

[tgenius]

I think we all need to realize that we have a 75% chance of an above normal season. And the best experts in the entire world believe we will have 7-9 hurricanes, with 3-4 of them being at least category 3 intensity. Get ready for a very active 8 weeks.

What concerns me is if this does come to fruitation, that we may have to worry about multiple storms in an area in rapid succession (Within a week from another for example) and that is a truly frightful thought.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Here is the south Atlatnic storms...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Atla ... al_cyclone

Lets see if we can get another hurricane this season? Maybe even a major???

[Thunder44]

Here is the south Atlatnic storms...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Atla ... al_cyclone

Lets see if we can get another hurricane this season? Maybe even a major???

Your enthusiasm for any hurricanes you can get amuses me.

[Jim Hughes]

It is tough to get an active season without a hurricane (or with a quiet August) before Sept 1. But 2001 and 1961 didn't have any big problems after a quiet August...

Those two years were very active space weather years Benny. Just like most of 2005 was. Space weather has been quieter in 2006 and the ATL has been quieter. Some people, like me, think it's the EL Nino effecting it. Well space weather controls the EL Nino also.

Do you see a very big El nino coming?

I see it being a weak to moderate El Nino. It is almost impossible to get a strong El Nino to develop at this stage of the solar cycle. OTOH the behavior of Sunspot Cycle 23 has been anything but usual. So if there ever was a chance it would be this one.

[rainstorm]

Personally, I see the season as being over as far as tracking long term systems. There are too many inhibiting factors, of which we all have eluded to, while watching the spawning grounds to the east. If troughs are as prevelent as they are, and have been so far, they will only stregnthen in thier southeasterly projection from here on out. There has been no lull in thier proclivity to develop so far, and don't expect that to change as the season progresses. The abundance of ULL's have continued to break down ridges, and alone have caused all potential waves to fizzle. If anything, look for a late Sept. thru mid Oct. stalled frontal boundry to spawn something homegrown. It will have to be a quick developer, with the frequency of frontal passages, to be considered a US threat. I would bet the greatest threat would be from the big bend area of Fl. south to the Keys, with a quick moving low end hurricane moving SW to the NE. Long trackers are not part of the equation this year folks....sorry.

i agree. do you see that huge trough south of the azores? that will kill any waves coming off africa

[tgenius]

I'm glad its been quiet to this point.. a barrage of storms could be worse then 05 if a particular area gets hit within a week or so of another hit...

[ConvergenceZone]

Personally, I see the season as being over as far as tracking long term systems. There are too many inhibiting factors, of which we all have eluded to, while watching the spawning grounds to the east. If troughs are as prevelent as they are, and have been so far, they will only stregnthen in thier southeasterly projection from here on out. There has been no lull in thier proclivity to develop so far, and don't expect that to change as the season progresses. The abundance of ULL's have continued to break down ridges, and alone have caused all potential waves to fizzle. If anything, look for a late Sept. thru mid Oct. stalled frontal boundry to spawn something homegrown. It will have to be a quick developer, with the frequency of frontal passages, to be considered a US threat. I would bet the greatest threat would be from the big bend area of Fl. south to the Keys, with a quick moving low end hurricane moving SW to the NE. Long trackers are not part of the equation this year folks....sorry.

i agree. do you see that huge trough south of the azores? that will kill any waves coming off africa

but see, this is bad for the USA then. Since most long tracking CV storms tend to recurve out to sea, this will leave the GOM and the Carib Sea and the area just east of the Cariba Sea as the 3 main breeding grounds. This spells bad news for landfalling storms.... We want the fish storms, so we WANT long tracking CV storms... If that's not going to happen, that's BAD news...

[sma10]

i agree. do you see that huge trough south of the azores? that will kill any waves coming off africa

Rainstorm, every season you proclaim the same doom and gloom scenario. (Remember the year you kept harping on the Azores Super Ridge?) You're always prevalent during a lull. Then, when the season heats up (as it will inevitably do this year) you tend to disappear from view. Of course, you then reappear at the sight of the next potential lull.

Interesting.

[ConvergenceZone]

i agree. do you see that huge trough south of the azores? that will kill any waves coming off africa

Rainstorm, every season you proclaim the same doom and gloom scenario. (Remember the year you kept harping on the Azores Super Ridge?) You're always prevalent during a lull. Then, when the season heats up (as it will inevitably do this year) you tend to disappear from view. Of course, you then reappear at the sight of the next potential lull.

Interesting.

hehe, yea, I like rainstorm and all, but I do notice that I don't think I"ve ever seen her bullish(I hate to use that word) on a storm's development or just the season in general. I think she just like to rain on our parade(hence her nickname).....

(just giving ya a hard time rainstorm, but you know I"m right! )

[Frank2]

Never say never, but, once those strong westerlies start to drop southward...