GOM System (Ex 95L)

[Thunder44]

It seems to be coming up on NRL as well:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[skysummit]

You can see the leading edge about to pound Mobile...

[JonathanBelles]

invests popin out our ears!!!

[Stratosphere747]

Here is my problem..

Are they declaring 95L because of the convection earlier, or the MCS moving south into the GOM?

[skysummit]

Wait...did this just NOW become 95L?

[cycloneye]

Wait...did this just NOW become 95L?

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

[SouthFloridawx]

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.


...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK 1014 MB LOW IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N86W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 88W-92W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S FLORIDA FROM
25N-27N BETWEEN 80W-82W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF 20N88W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OFF THE FLORIDA E COAST NEAR
30N80W. NLY CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS UPPER LEVEL NELY FLOW. EXPECT...
CONTINUED CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

[mtm4319]

Wait...did this just NOW become 95L?

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

That only tells us that it's currently an invest. Skysummit is asking if it was classified as an invest just tonight.

[miamicanes177]

I thought the NHC would declare this 95L. They have a responsibility to the public and must be very cautious about any storms in the GOM.

[skysummit]

Wait...did this just NOW become 95L?

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

Thanks Luis...I saw that, but did it just NOW...like in the past 10 minutes or so? What are they calling 95L? Is it that mass of diminishing convection in the Gulf under me or that next mesoscale convective complex above me?

[tailgater]

I have heard for the last 2 days about this ULL over NE FLA. retrograding west but for the last 12 hrs. it's been stationary. Just thinking out loud?

[cycloneye]

Wait...did this just NOW become 95L?

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

Thanks Luis...I saw that, but did it just NOW...like in the past 10 minutes or so? What are they calling 95L? Is it that mass of diminishing convection in the Gulf under me or that next mesoscale convective complex above me?

Oh yes skysummit,in the last 10 minutes they pop it at NRL.At 9:46 PM.

[Stratosphere747]

Still not sure what blob they see the need to "upgrade" to an invest...

[SouthFloridawx]

The convection looks to be to the northeast of weak surface low.

EDIT: I stand corrected...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_18Z.gif

[Derek Ortt]

this may be a bit over cautious

[skysummit]

this may be a bit over cautious

That's also what I'm thinking.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think this has very little chane at developing...Convection is falling apart fast. But if there was a Low it would be near 27 north/90 west. But I expect this to go poof tonight. 93L is not looking good in any surface low is about ready to die/poof with out convection. Maybe a weak trough north to south. 94L is dead,93L looking that way. 95L going that way. I can't wait for the south Atlatnic.


The eastern pacific and western pacific gets very active...At least supposed to be durning the Atlantic quit times. The earth must aways trasport this energy or it go's boom! But the western pacific in the whole world is normal to below normal. Something got to go soon!

[KatDaddy]

Agreed Derek. The Navy seems to be jumping the gun this year.

[KatDaddy]

From tonight's HOU-GAL Forecast Disc:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
823 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY CHANGE FOR THE UPDATE WILL BE TO HAND EDIT THE ZFP AND BUMP UP
THE LOWS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE GRIDS/GRAPHICS LOOK FINE.

OTHERWISE...HAD SEVERAL CALLS EARLIER THIS EVENING REGARDING THE
CLOUDINESS/TSTMS IN THE NCNTRL GULF. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC
TROF SITUATED IN THAT GENERAL VICINITY. SAT PIX SHOW PRECIP
DISSIPATING AND CLOUDS THINNING OUT. SHIP & BUOY PLOTS NO LONGER
SHOW THE BROAD CIRCULATION THAT WAS OBSERVED EARLIER AROUND THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. WINDS ARE ACTUALLY MOSTLY <10KT. THOUGH
PRESSURES HAVE SHOWN A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND THEY ARE STILL FAIRLY
HIGH. 18Z GFS/NMM MODEL RUNS BOTH SHOWED A WEAK SFC CIRCULATION -
BUT WELL SE OF THE CONVECTION WHICH WASN`T REALLY INITIALIZED WELL
(WHICH IS NOT UNCOMMON). WOULD NOT DOUBT IF ANOTHER AREA OF
CONVECTION FLARED UP SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI TOWARD MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LANDBREEZE/SEABREEZE AND THE OUTFLOW REMNANTS
FROM STORMS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE COAST FROM THE NORTH. NONE OF
THE MODELS WE`VE SEEN ARE TRYING TO FURTHER DEVELOP OR INTENSIFY
ANYTHING IN THE GULF. BUT UPPER LEVEL WINDS AREN`T HOSTILE AND IT`S
GETTING TO BE THAT TIME OF YEAR...SO IT`S ALWAYS WORTH WATCHING.
GOOD THING FOR THE SE TX AND THE UPPER TX COAST IS THAT IT APPEARS
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD TOUGH ENOUGH TO KEEP STEERING CURRENTS
IN A WSW DIRECTION...

[T-man]

Here comes the rain. And not a moment too soon. Very hot and humid down here today,as well as yesterday. Need an all day event to break the grip of this heat.