Invest 93L,SE Carolinas,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[SouthFloridawx]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 160009
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NOW IS NEAR 31N76W. A
TROUGH EXTENDS S TO THE BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA ALONG 27N77W
25N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY IF
NECESSARY.

[wxwatcher91]

Invest 93L
Currently looks like hell
however with convection
it could become a depression
And like always, time will tell

[Rainband]

Invest 93L
Currently looks like hell
however with convection
it could become a depression
And like always, time will tell

That was original

[wxwatcher91]

I know, I stole it from you ...I was counting on it being right below your post but it was on the next page... I guess you can copyright it as yours

[cycloneye]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932006) ON 20060816 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060816 0000 060816 1200 060817 0000 060817 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 31.1N 75.4W 32.2N 76.1W 32.6N 76.3W 32.0N 76.5W
BAMM 31.1N 75.4W 32.3N 75.9W 33.0N 76.0W 33.1N 76.3W
A98E 31.1N 75.4W 32.1N 75.5W 32.9N 75.3W 33.1N 73.9W
LBAR 31.1N 75.4W 32.1N 75.6W 33.3N 75.6W 34.4N 75.2W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060818 0000 060819 0000 060820 0000 060821 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.9N 77.0W 27.6N 80.7W 24.9N 85.5W 23.2N 90.6W
BAMM 32.5N 76.3W 30.5N 77.8W 29.3N 79.1W 29.2N 80.6W
A98E 32.9N 72.5W 32.7N 71.8W 33.4N 70.5W 35.8N 66.6W
LBAR 35.5N 74.3W 38.9N 72.5W 41.6N 67.8W 44.7N 56.9W
SHIP 42KTS 47KTS 45KTS 41KTS
DSHP 42KTS 47KTS 45KTS 41KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 31.1N LONCUR = 75.4W DIRCUR = 350DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 30.1N LONM12 = 75.2W DIRM12 = 341DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 29.7N LONM24 = 75.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


00:00z run.

[Rainband]

I know, I stole it from you ...I was counting on it being right below your post but it was on the next page... I guess you can copyright it as yours

Dude I was being facetious

[SouthFloridawx]

I know, I stole it from you ...I was counting on it being right below your post but it was on the next page... I guess you can copyright it as yours

Dude I was being facetious

100% Agreed (TM)

[wxwatcher91]

Still, guilt flooded my body

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

^^^that cover at least 180degrees there. at least we can eliminate the southeastern semicircle

[Bane]

i for one wish it would develop some and makes it way up here... southeast va... my grass crunches when you walk on it... we have not seen rain in about 10-20 days.... there has been some around the area, but not here.. seems to dodge us..

We really need some rain in Wilmington as well. We are nearly 8" below normal for the year.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 160205
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE AUG 15 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS. WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL...THIS
SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY...IF NECESSARY.

[chicagopizza]

I wasn't going to post anything , but I have in-laws from the midwest thinking about driving to Savannah next Thursday through Sunday (9 days from now) but ONLY if I can give them reassurance that this invest won't amount to much or won't come near Savannah while they're here. I know, I know...where's the crystal ball? I know it's a guessing game right now, but I guess - if possible - I'm looking for info that is reasonable to tell them as they need to decide if they're going on their southeast "tour" in 48 hours. Any help would be much appreciated!! Thanks!!

[whereverwx]

Well, based on the latest Shortwave IR, I’m having a very hard time finding any evidence of a broad low level circulation. Maybe there’s just a mid level circulation in there. And also, most, if not all, convection has dissipated. That’s a not good for tropical development. So, I’m going to go ahead and stick my last and final fork in this, and I’ll expect full dissipation by tomorrow afternoon.

[deltadog03]

BYE BYE!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Not just yet...


Southern half...These winds are very light...But it doe's show a closed wind field.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds75.png


Here is the over view of are system. As you can see that theres a Closed wind field at 76.5/30.8 north. The strongest winds are north of it. Which is 15 to 20 knots.


http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds74.png


If it could only form convection it could close a surface wind field fast. In become a depression.

[curtadams]

Not just yet...


Southern half...These winds are very light...But it doe's show a closed wind field.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds75.png

Here is the over view of are system. As you can see that theres a Closed wind field at 76.5/30.8 north. The strongest winds are north of it. Which is 15 to 20 knots.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds74.png

If it could only form convection it could close a surface wind field fast. In become a depression.

Hrm. Shouldn't this be a depression then? That's certainly a closed wind field and I see two uncontaminated wind vectors over 25 knots.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is no depression why?

1# No convection near the center.
2# This is taken at 10 meter above the surface...Or 30 feet.

Which means that this doe's not have a closed surface wind field as of yet. But if convection where to form it would.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like a tight LLC has formed at 33 north/75.5 west. It is moving northwestward.

[cycloneye]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 160908
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT WED AUG 16 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED
MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. SHOWER ACTIVITY
REMAINS MINIMAL WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT STILL
EXISTS TODAY AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF
NECESSARY.

5:30 AM TWO.

[Nimbus]

I did not zoom, but Matts observation is consistent with a small core system beginning to tap into the warm gulf stream. If the dry air does not get entrained they are likely to at least upgrade this to a TD after the morning visibles.

[Thunder44]

I wouldn't count this area out yet. There does appear to be LLC and it may be closed too. Some convection appears to be increasing just south of the center and ship came in with a report at 10z of NNW winds at 17.1kts with a pressure of 29.91"

SHIP S 1000 33.00 -77.50 116 291 340 17.1 - - - - - 29.91

Of course it will need stronger winds than that and more convection for a TD to be classified.