Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Ex 94L)

[terstorm1012]

Give it a week. As others have noted, the NAO has gone negative and given we're getting close to the peak of the season we'll get some fish to track soon. At any rate the western Pacific is active for those with the tracking bug. Practice over there so you're ready when it's the Atlantic's turn.

plus there's been very heavy rains in east Africa above the equator (i saw this on BBC this AM)...and all that stuff moves west.

though if I see one "season bust" post I might scream.

[Damar91]

Give it a week. As others have noted, the NAO has gone negative and given we're getting close to the peak of the season we'll get some fish to track soon. At any rate the western Pacific is active for those with the tracking bug. Practice over there so you're ready when it's the Atlantic's turn.

plus there's been very heavy rains in east Africa above the equator (i saw this on BBC this AM)...and all that stuff moves west.

though if I see one "season bust" post I might scream.

Season over

Sorry, I had to.

[Thunder44]

See it this way. So far this season we've seen one after the other more impressive than the last. This one looked the most impressive we seen this season. They are more waves lined up in Africa now and we starting to get into the heart of the season. So what do you all think chances that something will eventually develop out here are?

[Brent]

though if I see one "season bust" post I might scream.

THIS SEASON SUCKS!

[terstorm1012]

you guys are bad...but i loves ya all anyway

thunder: highly likely. I always remember (before last year's atmospheric psychofest) the season being kind of dead until around August 16th or so, then bam, the Atlantic comes to life. I just hope they're all fish.

[Lowpressure]

POOF!!

[ConvergenceZone]

Give it a week. As others have noted, the NAO has gone negative and given we're getting close to the peak of the season we'll get some fish to track soon. At any rate the western Pacific is active for those with the tracking bug. Practice over there so you're ready when it's the Atlantic's turn.

plus there's been very heavy rains in east Africa above the equator (i saw this on BBC this AM)...and all that stuff moves west.

though if I see one "season bust" post I might scream.

Season over

Sorry, I had to.

but can you imagine if it DOES end up being a quiet season??? Man, those of us who were given a hard time for calling for a slow or dead season, will have a field day on here

[Grease Monkey]

but then that will mean that the predictions made by experts were totally worthless for the 2nd season in a row. It will really start making everyone think whether or not predictions can be considered anywhere near accurate anymore. I smell possibly a September update or do you think they'll wait until November? What do you think stormtruth?

[x-y-no]

but then that will mean that the predictions made by experts were totally worthless for the 2nd season in a row. It will really start making everyone think whether or not predictions can be considered anywhere near accurate anymore. I smell possibly a September update or do you think they'll wait until November? What do you think stormtruth?

Seems to me that would open up a lot of interesting opportunities for new research.

[Stormcenter]

Give it a week. As others have noted, the NAO has gone negative and given we're getting close to the peak of the season we'll get some fish to track soon. At any rate the western Pacific is active for those with the tracking bug. Practice over there so you're ready when it's the Atlantic's turn.

plus there's been very heavy rains in east Africa above the equator (i saw this on BBC this AM)...and all that stuff moves west.

though if I see one "season bust" post I might scream.

Season over

Sorry, I had to.

but can you imagine if it DOES end up being a quiet season??? Man, those of us who were given a hard time for calling for a slow or dead season, will have a field day on here

If this were to pass and we were to have a below average season then everyone would question the so called "active" cycle we are supposed to be in for next decade or so. Anyway,I still wouldn't write this season off it is still too early. Now if things are still the same two weeks from today then you can start digging the grave for the 2006 season.

[ConvergenceZone]

but then that will mean that the predictions made by experts were totally worthless for the 2nd season in a row. It will really start making everyone think whether or not predictions can be considered anywhere near accurate anymore. I smell possibly a September update or do you think they'll wait until November? What do you think stormtruth?

hehe good points. Personally, I'll admit I'm impatient... and yes, it can still get going. I won't start hoopering and hollering about a dead/slow season being a reality unless September 10 gets here and there's nothing to be found. THEN, there's a good chance that slow/dead will be a reality, but we'll see. September is still 2 weeks away.

[CrazyC83]

I wouldn't be surprised to see this blob come back.

Also some years are dead early but really explode - 1998 for instance.

[SouthFloridawx]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 160009
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1012 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS S OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 13N24W MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 23W-29W.

[SouthFloridawx]

I think we'll see this wave fire up again by tomorrow evening as it moves westward. It'll be moving into an area of better low level convergence.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/QUNA00.jpg

Also it may move under and area of Upper Level High pressure.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/QHQA17.jpg

I don't think we've seen the end of this wave.

[Rieyeuxs]

once that wave comes off of the coast, we may need to pay attention to 94L again

How far ahead does ex-94 need to get in front of the new wave for the new wave to start to have an effect on it? Is there a rule of thumb about when the blocking SAL effects take hold? Just wondering about the timeline when we might start taking a look at this again (if it develops).

And heck, I'll ask one more question. If development looks likely again, would it reclaim the 94L number again?

[CrazyC83]

once that wave comes off of the coast, we may need to pay attention to 94L again

How far ahead does ex-94 need to get in front of the new wave for the new wave to start to have an effect on it? Is there a rule of thumb about when the blocking SAL effects take hold? Just wondering about the timeline when we might start taking a look at this again (if it develops).

And heck, I'll ask one more question. If development looks likely again, would it reclaim the 94L number again?

Yes it would be 94L once again.

[cycloneye]

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED SW OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 13N28W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. THIS LOW APPEARS
TO BE TRANSITIONING INTO AN OPEN WAVE BASED ON THE FIRST FEW
FRAMES OF VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS
AT A MINIMUM WITH THIS WAVE.



8 AM Discussion.

[cycloneye]

Wave ex 94L is making a small comeback.Let's see down the road what it does.