Models Showing a Deep system in Central Altantic!

[caneman]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

Final a model showing a Significant system.

[Thunder44]

That is at very low-lattitude for development. It would be difficult get something that significant to develop.

[Frank2]

You might also notice in the last frame that substantial trough about to enter the northeast U.S. - a sure sign of Fall...

Frank

[HURAKAN]

The way the season is going I won't be trusting much anything that says development, especially south of 10ºN.

[kenl01]

In additon, we don't even have our first hurricane yet as of mid August. Sounds pretty slow to me, especially considering the fact that the last strong wave off of Africa has gone poof once again..........

[Ivan14]

Remember what they say "it is always darkest before the dawn". Activity should increase in 5 to 10 days.

[caneman]

Definitely slow. Convection this year is having a hard time establishing over anything. Weird synoptics. Perhaps combination of High Pressure, lots of ULL's and SAL. However, this can easily turn around by end month. Seems like Hurricane season has shifted to later anyhow. If no tick up or convection still having a hard time sustaining by sept. 1, I'll be ready to say it's a slow season.

[Frank2]

I think you have it turned around, Ivan - slow is good - on the other hand, Katrina was a dark moment...

Frank

[AussieMark]

In additon, we don't even have our first hurricane yet as of mid August. Sounds pretty slow to me, especially considering the fact that the last strong wave off of Africa has gone poof once again..........

neither did 1998, 1999 or 2001 by this point

those seasons had 10, 8 and 9 respectively

[skysummit]

Yup...and once again people continue to shoot down this hurricane season when we're not even half way through. Unbelievable.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... hour=144hr
Looking at that frame I see something closed off as far as SLP. A bit far out but, it's getting to peak season. We'll see if GFS or any other models show this in a few more runs today and tomorrow.

[caneman]

Yup...and once again people continue to shoot down this hurricane season when we're not even half way through. Unbelievable.

And then there is reality. Reality is that systems have been unable to maintain any convection thus far. That is reality. Could it change yes but you can't argue that fact.

[Frank2]

I agree - at this time of year, counting on the old fingers helps - we only have one day less than 4 1/2 months left, before New Year's Eve, folks - the season is starting to run low on time...

Frank

[skysummit]

Yup...and once again people continue to shoot down this hurricane season when we're not even half way through. Unbelievable.

And then there is reality. Reality is that systems have been unable to maintain any convection thus far. That is reality. Could it change yes but you can't argue that fact.

Exactly...you made my point. Thanks. We have had 3 named storms so far. Another system was right about to be a TD before it made landfall on the east coast, and then there was that "frontal low" in the northern Atlantic that looked just like a TS in which it wasn't even connected to a front. Statiscally we're normal and slightly above for this time of year.

So yes...."thus far" is perfect for this time of year. That, my friend, is reality....3 1/2 months to go.

[Frank2]

Well, 3 1/2 months officially - many seasons end before October 15...

Frank

[Dean4Storms]

The peak period of hurricane season just began yesterday and runs through Oct. 15th, give it a chance.

[caneman]

Yup...and once again people continue to shoot down this hurricane season when we're not even half way through. Unbelievable.

And then there is reality. Reality is that systems have been unable to maintain any convection thus far. That is reality. Could it change yes but you can't argue that fact.

Exactly...you made my point. Thanks. We have had 3 named storms so far. Another system was right about to be a TD before it made landfall on the east coast, and then there was that "frontal low" in the northern Atlantic that looked just like a TS in which it wasn't even connected to a front. Statiscally we're normal and slightly above for this time of year.

So yes...."thus far" is perfect for this time of year. That, my friend, is reality....3 1/2 months to go.

Ever the optimist . Didn't say we aren't at normal but unless a pattern change takes place, look for a slower season with not much in the way of main threats. The systems we've had thus far haven't been nearly as bad as the afternoon thunderstorms we have here. Rather you want to admit it or not there are some unusual synoptics in play from lots of ULL's to very high pressure to abundant SAL to possibly a budding El Nino. Just my take. you don't have to like it.

[Frank2]

That's not true - the peak begins about 8/25, and ends about 9/30, with a small second maximum in mid-October, but, most seasons end for good about October 15 (or once the strong westerlies start to drop southward to near 30N)...

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/e ... _Graph.PNG

Frank

[skysummit]

Well, 3 1/2 months officially - many seasons end before October 15...

Frank

Yes....OFFICIALLY. Not when people "believe" the season will end.

[Frank2]

I've seen some seasons end in September, though, most have ended by mid-October. There are a few stragglers into November, but, like last year, they are the exception...

Frank