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skysummit
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#21 Postby skysummit » Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:11 am

I've never seen a season end before November 30th. I've seen many season in which nothing really develops after mid September or after October, but the season has never ended prior to November 30th.
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#22 Postby AussieMark » Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:13 am

remember Octobers can be busy from systems that develop in NW Caribbean Sea

look at 2001

in the October/November period

7/5/2 (2 were category 4)
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#23 Postby Frank2 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:15 am

Statistically, maybe, but, even during last year, the later November/December systems were all in the far eastern Atlantic...

The truth is that cold fronts really make their prescence known after mid-late October, and, that really marks the season's end for most lanfalling systems...

Frank
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#24 Postby skysummit » Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:17 am

Right Frank, but even though systems form out in the eastern Atlantic or puts an end to most landfalling systems like you say, that doesn't mean the season is over.
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#25 Postby Frank2 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:20 am

Oh, well - guess you had to be here - for most here and on the Gulf coast, Thanksgiving and even Christmas were quietly celebrated, since most were still in the midst of a hurricane recovery emergency at that point.

I know at my sister's house (where we'd usually all gather for Thanksgiving), they only had electricity for a week or so prior to Thanksgiving, and, my own neighborhood was a mess on that day...

As I said, guess you had to be there (here)...

Frank
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#26 Postby skysummit » Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:30 am

Frank2 wrote:Oh, well - guess you had to be here - for most here and on the Gulf coast, Thanksgiving and even Christmas were quietly celebrated, since most were still in the midst of a hurricane recovery emergency at that point.

I know at my sister's house (where we'd usually all gather for Thanksgiving), they only had electricity for a week or so prior to Thanksgiving, and, my own neighborhood was a mess on that day...

As I said, guess you had to be there (here)...

Frank


OKAY.....I KNOW you were not directing that at me. If you were, have you even looked at my location? I rode out Katrina on the western edge of the west eyewall. I was out working that afternoon as soon as the winds died to 40mph. I got 6 immuizations to protect me from diseases. I lived off of MRE's for almost two months while working in the filth of the destruction. I walked in 4 - 5 feet of contaminated water. I saw countless dead bodies which I had to work around. I was on the Miss. Gulf Coast the day after Katrina wintessing things most never will. I LIVE HERE.

Please do NOT tell me I had to be there. I was there more than you'll ever know.
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#27 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:31 am

Frank2 wrote:I've seen some seasons end in September, though, most have ended by mid-October. There are a few stragglers into November, but, like last year, they are the exception...

Frank


Frank you sound a bit skeptical this season will get going, I'd have to say as each day goes by and I see NOTHING out there that you could be right. Strong cold fronts are already building in North America - not a good sign for an active season.
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#28 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:34 am

However, since 1998, December storms have become commonplace. Only years since then with nothing in December have been 1999, 2000, and 2002
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#29 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:35 am

Derek Ortt wrote:However, since 1998, December storms have become commonplace. Only years since then with nothing in December have been 1999, 2000, and 2002


interesting Derek...good point
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#30 Postby Sanibel » Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:36 am

"A sure sign of fall".


You've got it backwards. The season still hasn't snapped out of a spring pattern as far as negativity and a disruptive upper atmosphere. Remember 2004 had such late troughs too.
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#31 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:40 am

Sanibel wrote:"A sure sign of fall".


You've got it backwards. The season still hasn't snapped out of a spring pattern as far as negativity and a disruptive upper atmosphere. Remember 2004 had such late troughs too.


Yes, you are right but in 2004 after Charley came through the long-wave pattern shifted from troughiness to ridging across the Western Atlantic - the Bermuda High took control for several weeks in Sept allowing Jeanne and Frances to track west across east-central Florida
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#32 Postby caneman » Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:44 am

Derek Ortt wrote:However, since 1998, December storms have become commonplace. Only years since then with nothing in December have been 1999, 2000, and 2002


Derek,

What is your take on this season thus far? I know we're not at peak but doesn't it seem unusual in the lack of moisture and inability of anything to hold convection?
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#33 Postby Ivan14 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:49 am

Frank I agree Katrina was a dark moment. It is an event I never want to see again. I just want some harmless fish storms to track. Believe me I have been through Hurricane Ivan and saw the pain it causes. :cry:
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#34 Postby Extreme Alde » Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:52 am

Actually if I could cheekily also ask Derek, why is the air in the Atlantic so dry this year? :wink:
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confused

#35 Postby bellavista2 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:52 am

ARE most of you hoping for hurricanes?
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Re: confused

#36 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:53 am

bellavista2 wrote:ARE most of you hoping for hurricanes?


Yep we like tracking hurricanes but nice big CAT 5 fish storms :D
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#37 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:54 am

its dry because we have had a pathetic wave train. Just enough to stir up the SAL (unlike last year when SAL took a vacation thanks to no wave train)
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#38 Postby Sanibel » Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:56 am

NEXRAD also said that the stronger than normal easterlies that are causing the strong trade winds have caused upwelling in the Atlantic that have brought cooler water to the surface.

But, really, it is one of those intangible atmospherics that suddenly shifts the whole theatre negative. Maybe the MJO in coincidence with the upwelling.
Last edited by Sanibel on Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#39 Postby Extreme Alde » Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:58 am

Derek Ortt wrote:its dry because we have had a pathetic wave train. Just enough to stir up the SAL (unlike last year when SAL took a vacation thanks to no wave train)


Thanks :D
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#40 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Aug 16, 2006 10:00 am

Anywho...
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