Invest 93L,E of Florida,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[cycloneye]

Continue the discussions about 93L at this second thread.

Thread #1

[Thunder44]

Most of the upper-level energy from the shortwave moving through Ontario appears to be by passing further north and east. The front may stall along the SE states as this sytem develops and the ULL over Florida is backing SW into GOM. That may pull this system towards the coast.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

[Hyperstorm]

Based on the latest visible satellite imagery this morning, this invest is close to being classified as Tropical Depression #4.

Fairly deep convection is firing up over what looks to be a closed low level circulation center. That being said, upper-level winds are not favorable for significant development right now.

Coincidentally this looks just like TD #4 in 2000...

[wxman57]

A few points...

You cannot use the BAMM, BAMD, BAMS models for a system in the subtropics as they won't see the changing steering currents. Use the dynamic models - GFDL, GFS, ECMWF, consensus models.

There does appear to be a closed LLC. It's getting more evident because northerly shear across the system is on the increase. If you take a look at the latest SHIPS intensity projection data, you'll see shear of 25-30 kts projected by this afternoon. It appears to be arriving a bit early.

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/atcf/stext/0 ... _ships.txt

Most likely, this system will be ripped apart within the next 24 hours.

I had predicted 15/8/4 for this season, but I think that may be too high now. I do expect a significant burst in activity by the end of August that'll last through early October with perhaps 7-9 storms and maybe a couple after that. I think that 12/6/3 may be a better choice. Just a bit above average.

Of course, there could be a few late-season tropical storms that form and bring the total to 14-15. I do think that there will be 1 major hurricane threat to the Gulf in September, and possibly a Cat 2-3 threat to the Mid Atlantic Coast during the coming burst in activity.

[caneman]

A few points...

You cannot use the BAMM, BAMD, BAMS models for a system in the subtropics as they won't see the changing steering currents. Use the dynamic models - GFDL, GFS, ECMWF, consensus models.

There does appear to be a closed LLC. It's getting more evident because northerly shear across the system is on the increase. If you take a look at the latest SHIPS intensity projection data, you'll see shear of 25-30 kts projected by this afternoon. It appears to be arriving a bit early.

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/atcf/stext/0 ... _ships.txt

Most likely, this system will be ripped apart within the next 24 hours.

I had predicted 15/8/4 for this season, but I think that may be too high now. I do expect a significant burst in activity by the end of August that'll last through early October with perhaps 7-9 storms and maybe a couple after that. I think that 12/6/3 may be a better choice. Just a bit above average.

Of course, there could be a few late-season tropical storms that form and bring the total to 14-15. I do think that there will be 1 major hurricane threat to the Gulf in September, and possibly a Cat 2-3 threat to the Mid Atlantic Coast during the coming burst in activity.

Do you think West florida will be in any jeopardy this year?

[Bane]

You can defintiely see northerly shear on satellite loops already.

[Thunder44]

Despite northerly shear the system appears to be developing this morning. It only appears that shear is stronger further east. It gets closer to coast and moves SW, as per GFDL and GFS is showing this morning, it will have the oppurtunity to organize more.

[SouthFloridawx]

Hopefully we'll at least see some subtropical development out of this thing.

[wxman57]

Here's a satellite with offshore obs plotted as well. Winds 10-15 kts around a weak low is all we have now. LLC is on the northeast side of convection. Hopefully it'll be destroyed by shear today:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/93L.gif

[Thunder44]

Here's a long range radar loop. You can see the LLC off the Carolina coast, and looks like it's moving slowly more west over the past hour.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

[wxman57]

Do you think West florida will be in any jeopardy this year?

By west Florida do you mean the panhandle or western peninsula? The general pattern from June is holding. High pressure over east TX/LA may well protect the north-central Gulf coast this season. But the Florida Peninsula sticks out like a sore thumb. Could be hit from either side. From the east in September, from the west in October/November. I don't expect nearly as many major hurricanes this season, so fewer threats than 2004-2005 for sure. Then again, it only takes one...

[Dean4Storms]

One thing to point out about 93L this am, it is sitting over the Gulf Stream and it has a small window for development today before the shear becomes too much.

[Sanibel]

Popping over the Gulf Stream with warm-tops.


This could be take-off if it hangs over the Gulf Stream long enough.

[wxman57]

To give you an idea of what's coming as far as upper-level winds and 93L, here's a GFS plot of mean 400-700mb flow (purple) with 200mb wind barbs (yellow) valid 12Z (8am EDT) tomorrow. Note the 50-55kt NNE winds across the disturbance. Also note the 40 kt easterly winds across the central and northern Gulf. Not very favorable conditions. It should be ripped apart later today/tonight.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/93Lb.gif

[chicagopizza]

Hi. I've had good experiences on this board and have never known y'all to be rude. However , a question I posted last night- (waited until now for an answer) - was ignored while others weren't. It was probably just an oversight , but it appeared as if I was being ignored. I rarely ask questions because most can be answered by reading or waiting. However, there are times I find it neccessary and being ignored makes it even harder to post. I've been with this board since 2004, but if I was new, last night would've been the only representation of storm2k I had. (off my soapbox...)

Back to the question: I....have in-laws from the midwest...driving to Savannah...(in) 9 days...but ONLY if...this invest won't amount to much or won't come near Savannah while they're here. I know...it's a guessing game right now, but...if possible...I'm looking for info that is reasonable to tell them...(so they can decide). Any help would be much appreciated!! Thanks!! ps - if my question has been answer while I wirte this post, thank and and my apologies.

[sevenleft]

Nobody has a crystal ball chicagopizza. However, it appears that this system will not be an issue and they can make their trip.

[chicagopizza]

Understood. Wasn't looking for a crystal ball - just an educated guess and an acknowledment that my question was read. You gave me both. Thank you!

[Nimbus]

You usually get some beach erosion with a storm passing so the shelling might be improved.

[Sanibel]

My instinct says 40 knot shear will keep any serious threat away from Savannah. But the system has moved towards that area from where it was yesterday. The best thing your people can do is go and keep an ear out.

Some people are even known to drive towards these things.

[flhurricaneguy]

i wouldnt worry too much about this invest