Dr. Jeff Masters updated August outlook

[miamicanes177]

Jeff Masters posted his updated hurricane outlook for August. He expects the first hurricane to form by August 26th, and a very active September. He sounded really bullish on the remaining season. From Jeff Masters, "those of you who doubt NOAA and Dr. Gray's predictions of 15 named storms this season need to put your skepticism on hold." http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200608

[gatorcane]

Jeff Masters posted his updated hurricane outlook for August. He expects the first hurricane to form by August 26th, and a very active September. He sounded really bullish on the remaining season. From Jeff Masters, "those of you who doubt NOAA and Dr. Gray's predictions of 15 named storms this season need to put your skepticism on hold." http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200608

Well I'd have to agree it just can't stay this quiet through September. Too much heat is building in the tropics without anything out there....so I would expect Mother nature to balance things out September and October....

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Another great read! A very nice summary of why most forecasters think that the East Coast (especially the Carolinas), and not the GOM, will be more at risk this year. I also agree with his thinking on the threat to the Islands. Bravo!

[gatorcane]

I think the area I would start watching is the Caribbean and GOM. If you look at this season, it has been hot and sunny most of this summer. Heat is building up there with very little wave activity that has been killed by the TUTT and SAL.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I still see a lesser risk for the GOM this year than the East Coast, and I see NO REASON to change my assumptions, but who knows.

[Extreme Alde]

Sorry could somebody explain SAL please.

[CrazyC83]

My prediction for September: 8 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes (two Category 5's).

[miamicanes177]

A bit too conservative dont ya think crazy83?

[Stormcenter]

Jeff Masters posted his updated hurricane outlook for August. He expects the first hurricane to form by August 26th, and a very active September. He sounded really bullish on the remaining season. From Jeff Masters, "those of you who doubt NOAA and Dr. Gray's predictions of 15 named storms this season need to put your skepticism on hold." http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200608

Well I'd have to agree it just can't stay this quiet through September. Too much heat is building in the tropics without anything out there....so I would expect Mother nature to balance things out September and October....

All the heat in the world won't do much good if the conditions are not right.
Otherwise I say we may have 11-12 named systems as of now. Like I stated a few days ago on another post we probably will see a burst of activity later this month or next but nothing like 2006. IMO

[Windsurfer_NYC]

Sorry could somebody explain SAL please.

SAL FAQ: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A17.html

SAL Analysis: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/sal.html

[Extreme Alde]

Sorry could somebody explain SAL please.

SAL FAQ: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A17.html

SAL Analysis: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/sal.html

Thanks windsurfer.

[Steve]

>>The U.S. Gulf Coast has a lower than average chance of a hurricane strike with this steering pattern.

What's average and whatever does this mean? You get one IH hit and it's below average? You get 10 tropical storms and it's below average? I really hate when they do that.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

It means it probably will not be hit be any major hurricanes this season, at least that is the current thinking.

[Steve]

>>It means it probably will not be hit be any major hurricanes this season, at least that is the current thinking.

Well I'll go on record right now stating that anyone predicting that is out of their mind. All I saw was lower than average chance of hurricane strike. And I still want to know what the average chance of a hurricane strike is. I'm not saying that the Gulf will get hit by a major, a hurricane or even a tropical storm. But it has gotten its fair share of hits so far this decade. And this decade is decidedly "not average".

Steve

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Well I understand where your coming from, but still I think the experts know what they are talking about. That stated no one knows for sure; after all I said "probably" not "definitively".

[sunny]

Yeah well, I'm not so sure I'm buying into it either. I mean, who would have thought we would see three cat 5's last year? I don't trust "probable" anymore.

[canegrl04]

I believe we will see the first hurricane before the end of August,but I'm not so sure the rest of the season will be amazingly active.I predict we will see 7 more named storms for the rest of the season

[jasons2k]

>>It means it probably will not be hit be any major hurricanes this season, at least that is the current thinking.

Well I'll go on record right now stating that anyone predicting that is out of their mind. All I saw was lower than average chance of hurricane strike. And I still want to know what the average chance of a hurricane strike is. I'm not saying that the Gulf will get hit by a major, a hurricane or even a tropical storm. But it has gotten its fair share of hits so far this decade. And this decade is decidedly "not average".

Steve

Hey Steve,

I hear what you're saying. This is very similiar to when the same kind of statements were made in his earlier outlooks this season. It doesn't seem to be based on any raw numbers or emperical evidence; it's just some blanket statement.

Hope all is going good with you - I know you've had a lot of changes in the past year. I'll be coming to NOLA this weekend for the first time since Katrina - should be an interesting trip.

-Jason

[Steve]

>>Well I understand where your coming from, but still I think the experts know what they are talking about. That stated no one knows for sure; after all I said "probably" not "definitively".

Oh I like his takes on a lot of things. But I hate when (t)he(y) say(s) "below average this or that" without defining the averages. I'm sure someone could do a sample and say the Gulf of Mexico gets hit "x" times per year by an average intensity of "x" (TS-Cat2 whatever it averages out to be). Then I would have some frame of reference to judge whether or not his prediction was a good one or not. But since I don't have those relative figures at hand (does anyone?), and since he doesn't put a frame of reference as to what average he's using (be it average this decade, last 20 years, last 50 or 100 years?) then it's rather impossible to judge whether or not the prediction was worth its salt.

>>... It doesn't seem to be based on any raw numbers or emperical evidence; it's just some blanket statement.

That's what I'm thinking. But is that really saying anything? Maybe it's just me trying to be too technical, but I don't get it.

>>Hope all is going good with you - I know you've had a lot of changes in the past year. I'll be coming to NOLA this weekend for the first time since Katrina - should be an interesting trip.

Yeah, all is more or less well. I've got a bit of a bayou tan these days since we have so much grass to cut and so much time to hang out in the swimming pool. Got my boys in school down in Lafourche and my daughter in school in Metairie. Ex-wife is trying to figure out the taxable losses (personal and real property) and determine what is the best course of action to take with regards to a Jefferson Parish building permit. If you get one prior to 8/31, you get grandfathered into the old mechanisms for elevation (3' higher than the middle of your street or 2 other options). If she gets the permit, she'll be out of hot water with the Parish but may possibly lose out on grant money that is supposed to be available to raise houses. Since our house (constructed in 1950) had never flooded in any previous storms or any major rainfall events, it's a bit of a quandry for her. I'm just living life waiting for football season!

Steve

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Well I personally like the fact that people like DR. Gray, Jeff Masters, Joe B, and others, are at least trying to pick out steering current predictors. Anything that can increase our understanding of the forces that drive these storms, is fine by me. I'll wait to see how things turn out, before I'll disregard their predictions. After all many people laughed at DR. Gray when he invented seasonal activity forecasts, and look what happened there.