Invest 93L,E of Florida,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[terstorm1012]

for the record, and mostly related to topic, dr. jeff masters has a new update out.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200608

he makes a good case as to why we should see a burst of activity in the next couple weeks running through September. take a look.

[chicagopizza]

You're right about those storms that skirt the coast...great waves beforehand for surfng...great shelling afterwards.... ...just as long as I don't have to be holed up in my house with panicked in-laws...lol

[sevenleft]

You're right about those storms that skirt the coast...great waves beforehand for surfng...great shelling afterwards.... ...just as long as I don't have to be holed up in my house with panicked in-laws...lol

Oh its your IN LAWS?

In that case, this is the perfect excuse to cancel!!!

[chicagopizza]

Thanks for the responses! Your thoughtful answers are much appreciated. ok...back to lurking....

[SouthFloridawx]

I wouldn't be suprised if they find:

A closed circulation
Min. Tropical Depression winds.

I would not be suprised at an upgrade for this today.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

[Sanibel]

Agree. The surface feature is obviously spinning.

[Thunder44]

The plane appears to be going in today.

[CrazyC83]

It looks better than ever now...

[Weatherfreak14]

It looks better than ever now...

I agree. Even though the convection aint at its best but overall this storm is much better organized than ever before. It maybe be a TD now but i do expect this to change with the shear ripping it appart, although we though alberto would be completly ripped apart.

[HURAKAN]

Another TD 7 2003 type of system? Maybe.

[Weatherfreak14]

could be. I remember the day. it was just so wet and windy here.

[wxman57]

Hi. I've had good experiences on this board and have never known y'all to be rude. However , a question I posted last night- (waited until now for an answer) - was ignored while others weren't. It was probably just an oversight , but it appeared as if I was being ignored. I rarely ask questions because most can be answered by reading or waiting. However, there are times I find it neccessary and being ignored makes it even harder to post. I've been with this board since 2004, but if I was new, last night would've been the only representation of storm2k I had. (off my soapbox...)

Back to the question: I....have in-laws from the midwest...driving to Savannah...(in) 9 days...but ONLY if...this invest won't amount to much or won't come near Savannah while they're here. I know...it's a guessing game right now, but...if possible...I'm looking for info that is reasonable to tell them...(so they can decide). Any help would be much appreciated!! Thanks!! ps - if my question has been answer while I wirte this post, thank and and my apologies.

Didn't see your original post. This invest will be long gone in about 48-72 hours. There's no guarantee that the southeast U.S. coast won't be threatened by another system in another 7-10 days, though.

['CaneFreak]

What factor is leading you to believe it will be LONG gone in 48-72 hours? Is it shear?

[Regit]

For the mets:

Local mets (and others online) have been talking about the ridge building in to push the storm into the coast. Wouldn't this indicate that the "major" shear may never happen, or that if it does happen, it will be temporary?

[StormWarning1]

What factor is leading you to believe it will be LONG gone in 48-72 hours? Is it shear?

Jackpot

Strong northerly shear is expected to move in and 93l should turn south westard. Might pop enough convection briefly and if recon is going on at just the right time we might get Debby out of it. What I see is a sheared depression moving into GA,FLA. at the most, but probably will not even survive the shear.

[Damar91]

How far south do you think that it will get pulled?

[brunota2003]

did anyone post that the Navy did issue a TCFA for this area?

[Regit]

did anyone post that the Navy did issue a TCFA for this area?

I haven't seen anything.

[brunota2003]

did anyone post that the Navy did issue a TCFA for this area?

I haven't seen anything.

ok...well they have if anyone would like to post it....

[clfenwi]

did anyone post that the Navy did issue a TCFA for this area?

I haven't seen anything.

ok...well they have if anyone would like to post it....

WTNT21 KNGU 161500
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 161500Z AUG 06//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 32.1N 76.4W TO 32.5N 78.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM­
AGERY AT 161200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 32.8N 76.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32.1N 76.4W HAS BEEN MOVING
SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS
HAVE BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE IS SITUATED OVER THE CAROLINAS COAST.
WEAK SHEAR HAS MAINTAINED OVER THE AREA FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. SHORT
TO MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES GREATLY WITH SYSTEM
DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA SHOW
GENERAL 15 TO 20 KT SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND THE LOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE IN THE AREA HAS BEEN ANALYZED AT 84F(29C). EXACT FURTURE
MOVEMENT IS UNCERTAIN BUT GENERAL TREND OF A SLOW WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM MAY MAKE
LANDFALL BEFORE IT REACHES TROPICAL DEPRESSION STREGNTH, SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RAPIDLY
DEVELOP THIS LOW.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 171500Z.

Worth remembering that the TCFA criteria gives 5 points for the disturbance being within 72 hours of a Department of Defense resource... so it's likely that if this were out in the mid-Atlantic it would still be under the threshold for a TCFA.