93L Invest Recon discussion

[Regit]

but could it develop into a tropical depression soon???

My bet is TD 4 at 5:00.

[Derek Ortt]

it may be a 25KT depression, but I cannot see it lasting for 24 hours

[miamicanes177]

what arent they sending in any observations

[slartibartfast]

Well just posted in the recon thread by mistake (bowing in shame ) but isn't one of these threads mislabbeled as the reacon appears to be coming from the gulf near 88 w and this thread seems to be talking about the system off the se. coast
Mark

[Derek Ortt]

SHIPS only has 31KT of shear, still enough to give it the KO

[brunota2003]

they take off from Keesler AFB, Mississippi, that is why it appears wrong...Keesler is their main base

[StormsAhead]

They should be near the coast soon. Hopefully they will start sending observations again by then.

[Andy_L]

Well just posted in the recon thread by mistake (bowing in shame ) but isn't one of these threads mislabbeled as the reacon appears to be coming from the gulf near 88 w and this thread seems to be talking about the system off the se. coast
Mark

All flights originate from Keesler AFB in Mississipi Slarti...unless they are forward deployed (usually to St Croix).

Cheers Neighbour

Andrew

[wxman57]

it may be a 25KT depression, but I cannot see it lasting for 24 hours

25kts may be a bit generous, as may be your 24 hours. Already looks like shear is increasing and convection is stretching out to the SSW of the weak LLC. In fact, the LLC is less defined than a couple hours ago. May not be there by the time recon arrives.

[Thunder44]

it may be a 25KT depression, but I cannot see it lasting for 24 hours

25kts may be a bit generous, as may be your 24 hours. Already looks like shear is increasing and convection is stretching out to the SSW of the weak LLC. In fact, the LLC is less defined than a couple hours ago. May not be there by the time recon arrives.

I disagree. If anything it looks better organized. I don't see shear increasing over the system. There has been a recent blow up in convection around the center. It looks more like outflow over the system spreading out on all sides except maybe the NW Quad. The high cirrus clouds are prevent seeing the center visible imagery anymore. You can also see the LLC better defiend on radar with banding features evident:

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

[senorpepr]

Well, like wxman said...They better hurry up cuz its about to be ripped apart.

It kind funny how many are expecting to be ripped appart later today or tomorrow, yet TPC has scheduled more flights for tomorrow and the next morning. I don't think the shear is going to increase enough today to prevent it from developing. A weak TS is possible before then.

FWIW, they have to schedule recon flights at least 24 hours in advance. It's MUCH easier to cancel a flight than it is to add a flight.

[Thunder44]

Well, like wxman said...They better hurry up cuz its about to be ripped apart.

It kind funny how many are expecting to be ripped appart later today or tomorrow, yet TPC has scheduled more flights for tomorrow and the next morning. I don't think the shear is going to increase enough today to prevent it from developing. A weak TS is possible before then.

FWIW, they have to schedule recon flights at least 24 hours in advance. It's MUCH easier to cancel a flight than it is to add a flight.

Yeah, that's why you don't take chances.

[Regit]

So what's the reduction this time? 80, 90?

[wxman57]

it may be a 25KT depression, but I cannot see it lasting for 24 hours

25kts may be a bit generous, as may be your 24 hours. Already looks like shear is increasing and convection is stretching out to the SSW of the weak LLC. In fact, the LLC is less defined than a couple hours ago. May not be there by the time recon arrives.

I disagree. If anything it looks better organized. I don't see shear increasing over the system. There has been a recent blow up in convection around the center. It looks more like outflow over the system spreading out on all sides except maybe the NW Quad. The high cirrus clouds are prevent seeing the center visible imagery anymore. You can also see the LLC better defiend on radar with banding features evident:

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

Take a look at this image I just snapped. The LLC is about 50-60 miles NE of the nearest thunderstorms. Separation between LLC and convection is increasing. Max winds reported at nearest buoys remain 10-15 kts.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/93Lb.gif

[StormsAhead]

80% (1000 feet).

NNE 27 knots so far in the convection. That's about 22 knots at the surface.

[Stormavoider]

it may be a 25KT depression, but I cannot see it lasting for 24 hours

25kts may be a bit generous, as may be your 24 hours. Already looks like shear is increasing and convection is stretching out to the SSW of the weak LLC. In fact, the LLC is less defined than a couple hours ago. May not be there by the time recon arrives.

I disagree. If anything it looks better organized. I don't see shear increasing over the system. There has been a recent blow up in convection around the center. It looks more like outflow over the system spreading out on all sides except maybe the NW Quad. The high cirrus clouds are prevent seeing the center visible imagery anymore. You can also see the LLC better defiend on radar with banding features evident:

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

Take a look at this image I just snapped. The LLC is about 50-60 miles NE of the nearest thunderstorms. Separation between LLC and convection is increasing. Max winds reported at nearest buoys remain 10-15 kts.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/93Lb.gif

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41013

[whereverwx]

Personally, I don't think Recon will find a depression.

[wxman57]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41013

My graphic plots the hourly reports. Had that buoy at 15 kts, but it has reported as high as 18 kts. Not very significant. There IS an LLC. Max winds around it are generally around 15-25 kts, mostly in the storms SW of the LLC.

Will the NHC call it a TD? If it was well out to sea it would be ignored. They have to consider whether this system has any potential to harm someone. If so, then they may elect to call it a TD this afternoon so that warnings can be issued. I do think it'll be gone by the morning, though (the LLC, anyway).

So what will the NHC do?....

[Stormavoider]

I guess recon will tell.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I agree Wxman57. It certainly doesn't look like much, and if it was located in the middle of the Atlantic it would likely be ignored. Tough call if they'll upgrade it, or not, hmmm.