Invest 93L,E of Florida,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[brunota2003]

Here is the graphic:
TCFA Graphic For 93L

[WmE]

Where do you get that TCFA text from? Can you give me the link?

[flhurricaneguy]

what is tcfa map?

[Thunder44]

There are in the system now. Highest winds find so far 27kts at flight level.

[whereverwx]

This is a cool satellite loop of it.

[Brent]

This has to be about the most boring invest near the U.S. that recon is investigating ever.

[sevenleft]

I think we get a TD out of this.

[HurricaneHunter914]

So far the 2006 season has been the most boring season I have ever tracked and its the middle of August!

[Thunder44]

:sleeping:

This has to be about the most boring invest near the U.S. that recon is investigating ever.

Why Brent? I know we aren't not getting the minobs on time.

[Brent]

:sleeping:

This has to be about the most boring invest near the U.S. that recon is investigating ever.

Why Brent? I know we aren't not getting the minobs on time.

Well... it's just usually when there's a recon flight this board is so busy and today it's just so slow and boring.

[CronkPSU]

:sleeping:

This has to be about the most boring invest near the U.S. that recon is investigating ever.

Why Brent? I know we aren't not getting the minobs on time.

Well... it's just usually when there's a recon flight this board is so busy and today it's just so slow and boring.

very true...heck not even one person screaming about the reduction rate or that they must be missing the highest winds

[CrazyC83]

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NOW IS NEAR 33N76W.
THE DUAL LOW CENTERS OF YESTERDAY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN JUST EAST OF FLORIDA COMBINED INTO ONE LOW CENTER DURING
THE LAST 24 HOURS...AND MOVED TO THE NORTH FOR THE PRESENT
SITUATION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OCCURRING FROM 31N TO 33N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM
27N TO 33N BETWEEN 73W AND 79W. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION STILL
MAY FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT ON
THURSDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
IS EXPECTED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

[Sanibel]

Has pretty good spin, but you can see two levels of shear. One from the NW and one affecting the core convection from the NE.

[Thunder44]

592
WHXX01 KWBC 161922
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932006) ON 20060816 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060816 1800 060817 0600 060817 1800 060818 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 32.3N 76.9W 32.3N 77.8W 31.8N 78.9W 31.0N 80.7W
BAMM 32.3N 76.9W 32.6N 78.0W 32.5N 79.0W 32.1N 80.3W
A98E 32.3N 76.9W 32.1N 77.4W 32.2N 78.2W 30.8N 78.7W
LBAR 32.3N 76.9W 32.4N 77.5W 32.6N 78.2W 32.9N 79.0W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060818 1800 060819 1800 060820 1800 060821 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.3N 82.8W 29.2N 87.2W 28.6N 91.6W 28.4N 96.0W
BAMM 31.7N 81.6W 30.6N 84.3W 29.7N 87.2W 29.1N 90.3W
A98E 29.7N 79.5W 27.1N 81.3W 25.5N 83.7W 24.8N 87.0W
LBAR 33.5N 79.7W 34.6N 80.9W 35.6N 79.6W 38.3N 74.1W
SHIP 37KTS 37KTS 40KTS 40KTS
DSHP 31KTS 27KTS 31KTS 32KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 32.3N LONCUR = 76.9W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 32.3N LONM12 = 76.1W DIRM12 = 322DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 30.4N LONM24 = 75.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

18z models just came out. They still have it as "Disturabance Invest" So they haven't decided to make the upgrade yet. Pressure at 1013 winds 25kts moving West at 4kts
Position 32.3N 76.9W

[cycloneye]

WONT41 KNHC 162006
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
405 PM EDT WED AUG 16 2006

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE
COASTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA IS PRODUCING MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 25 MILES PER HOUR IN A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT YET BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AND ADVISORIES ARE NOT BEING INITIATED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BEFORE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT ON
THURSDAY.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It has a LLC but the wind field is not strong enough yet to impressive them. Thats pretty much what it falls on. Only a few area's of 25 knot winds. With the rest maybe 15 to 20 knots. At that rate this thing could open up at the surface fast any way. Lets wait intill the ara of 25 knots grow.

[Damar91]

If this starts to move more south as some of you have said, would this then be in a better area for development, or doesn't it matter?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

One more burst over the LLC should strengthen the wind field enough to be upgraded.

[Air Force Met]

This is a cool satellite loop of it.

Here's a pretty cool loop too. You need high speed internet though...

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

[wxman57]

If this starts to move more south as some of you have said, would this then be in a better area for development, or doesn't it matter?

It won't matter, a fairly strong northerly jet core will be building off the southeast U.S. Coast tonight/Thursday. Shear will be quite strong all over.