Synoptics May Be Setting Up for A Very Active Late Season

[gatorcane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I feel that the early and mid season synoptics may be setting the stage for very active late season for these reasons:

- Excess heat continues to build. All of the ULLs, SAL, and the strong TUTT has caused below normal shower activity across the entire Atlantic basin for the major of this summer. The result is that excess heat continues to build in the atmosphere across areas of the Atlantic basin especially in the Caribbean and GOM more than a normal year.
- The factors that contribute to the active phase that started in 1995 are still there (e.g.) higher than normal SSTs, little presence of an el nino, etc once the ULLs move out.
- The wet MJO has still yet to arrive in across the Atlantic Basin.
- There is a slight negative relationship between early season storms(hurricanes) versus late season - August through November Source: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/G8.html

Comments welcome

[tgenius]

Let's hope this isn't the case and we have a fully quiet season bud.

[jusforsean]

I am no meterologist by any means, but that is my gut feeling quite now but when it comes it will COME!!!!!!

[rainbow24]

I pray this doesn't happen. My daughter is getting married end of Oct in an outdoor wedding in south/central Fl. All I need is a storm to ruin the wedding date.

[Buck]

You read my mind. I can see the later half of the season being similar to the later half of last season... but obviously, much different first halfs.

[gatorcane]

I pray this doesn't happen. My daughter is getting married end of Oct in an outdoor wedding in south/central Fl. All I need is a storm to ruin the wedding date.

South Florida gets hit typically in October and from the south. That is the busiest month. You typically have cold fronts that start to push south into the SE US and anything that froms in the Caribbean or GOM gets pulled north and northeast through Florida

Wilma was the classic example. As an FYI, Tampa Bay's last major hurricane happened late in October way back in 1921 and it was a hit from the SW

This summer the Caribbean has been void of much shower or thunderstorm activity so there is alot of heat buildup in the atmosphere and as far as SSTs are concerned.

[Grease Monkey]

I pray this doesn't happen. My daughter is getting married end of Oct in an outdoor wedding in south/central Fl. All I need is a storm to ruin the wedding date.

but what if the wedding ends up like the end of the movie "Forces of Nature"?

[Trugunzn]

I agree, very good gator

[gatorcane]

I agree, very good gator

I guess we'll have to wait and see. What other factors could indicate an active late season that I missed? Visa versa what other indications could mean a slow late season?

[curtadams]

I don't think the atmosphere can store enough heat to be significant here. There isn't that much, compared to the ocean, and air moves around a lot, even without convection.

I agree with the rest except that they're not predicting a very active rest-of-season, just an above average rest-of-season. None of those are powerful predictors of activity (because *nothing* that varies much is - except El Nino, and even that is only a few storms on average).

[M_0331]

Read the Dr. Jeff Master August outlook posted today by miamacanes177 which addresses the same discussion that you'll are having.

posted by miamicanes177
" Jeff Masters posted his updated hurricane outlook for August. He expects the first hurricane to form by August 26th, and a very active September. He sounded really bullish on the remaining season. From Jeff Masters, "those of you who doubt NOAA and Dr. Gray's predictions of 15 named storms this season need to put your skepticism on hold." http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200608

[wxmann_91]

I respectfully disagree.

I think an El Nino is coming. This will stop the season after around mid-October.

SSTA's are highest over the Poles. https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/NCO ... nomaly.gif
That is where the heat is, not the tropics. Job of hurricanes is to bring heat from the tropics to the poles. Hmmm....

MJO is forecasted to weaken as it hits the Atlantic, as it usually does.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I agree gatorcane. The last part of August through September should be very active (and the experts agree).

[gatorcane]

I agree gatorcane. The last part of August through September should be very active (and the experts agree).

Thanks, by late season I mean September and October.

[wxmann_91]

Thanks, by late season I mean September and October.

If you mean that, then you're probably right, given that climatology supports it too.

[boca]

Maybe Florida will be off the hook this year for a change.

[HurricaneHunter914]

If we have a very active late season, then FL will be in trouble. October is usually a S FL month.

[Stratosphere747]

Gator,

How can you use a correlation of the Caribbean being quiet/devoid of activity as being a reasoning on why things would ramp up later in the season, with respect to the Caribbean area?

How then would you explain the activity of a near cat 5 and a declared cat 5 last year, and then we have what could arguably be the single most intense recorded hurricane ever in the Atlantic basin?

I'm not buying the "heat buildup" or the SST's... But willing to listen...

[jasons2k]

Gator,

How can you use a correlation of the Caribbean being quiet/devoid of activity as being a reasoning on why things would ramp up later in the season, with respect to the Caribbean area?

How then would you explain the activity of a near cat 5 and a declared cat 5 last year, and then we have what could arguably be the single most intense recorded hurricane ever in the Atlantic basin?

I'm not buying the "heat buildup" or the SST's... But willing to listen...

I think Derek, earlier in the season, posted something about the correlation between a calm start and an active finish.

I'm not a pro-met, but this is my general understanding of how this works in layman's terms:

Hurricanes do two things that are pertinent to this - they consume heat/energy and they also cool waters they traverse.

Usually when an intense hurricane traverses an area, especially slowly, the waters in its path will cool somewhat, leaving less available fuel for storms that follow in a similar path. We saw this last year in the BOC/SW GOM when Emily "spoiled" the virgin hot waters of those areas.

As far as heat in the atmosphere goes - I think the constant MCS complexes that are forming in the SE US provide a great example of how the atmosphere is expending all the heat buildup from the record heat that has been present under the high pressure system that was parked up north for so long. Essentially the same happens in the tropics - the more available heat you have, the more energy there is for hurricanes, and the atmosphere has to work harder to expend all that extra 'pent-up' heat. All other things being equal, this results in more storms.

[benny]

Gator,

How can you use a correlation of the Caribbean being quiet/devoid of activity as being a reasoning on why things would ramp up later in the season, with respect to the Caribbean area?

How then would you explain the activity of a near cat 5 and a declared cat 5 last year, and then we have what could arguably be the single most intense recorded hurricane ever in the Atlantic basin?

I'm not buying the "heat buildup" or the SST's... But willing to listen...

I agree... heat buildup is not a significant factor. Atmospheric conditions of more rising motion than average.. more cyclonic vorticity (or stronger waves)... SSTs above average... less shear than average all produce more storms. It may be building... but it doesn't mean it will have a huge peak... or anything significant at all. some years are very quiet in August and don't have much the rest of the year.. especially if there is a Nino-like influence... which is casting a shadow on this year. Take a look at 91C in the Central Pacific... not a good sign if you like hurricanes.