Strong system about to move off the African Coast

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

There's a pretty good looking big blob over the Western African Coast, that may come off during the next 24-36 hours. As suggested by another post, this one appears to be the one that the GFS is developing during the next days.



Look at the GFS 12Z run. It appears to take the system westward to the Caribbean. The important thing now is to see whether or not that tendency continues. But at the present time that blob of convection over western Africa appears to be looking good.Invest 94L made conditions more humid in the Eastern Atlantic as suggested by latest SAL images. This one may have a shot.
SAL


GFS 12Z run
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfs/20 ... /slp24.png

[mike815]

for once i agree it just might im crossing my fingers well everything maybe just maybe...

[MetroMike]

Well climatology says it should develop, but this year seems different....

It may just vaporize like all other potential systems have so far...

[AnnularCane]

I'll believe it when I see it.

[Derek Ortt]

again

SAL hits the waves from BEHIND

94L will not help this wave any bit from a SAL prospective, unless the Sahara moves into the middle of the Atlantic

[ConvergenceZone]

It looks really good. Not much SAL compared to what that SAL map looked like a month ago.... This one SHOULD develop, as it's getting into later August, so if it it doesn't, then something is seriously wrong!

[Normandy]

lets wait till it actually gets in water shall we?

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

GFS 18Z continues hinting development on the next tropical wave to come off the African coast

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[SouthFloridawx]

I think these two threads are about the same thing. I believe GFS is hinting at development maybe from this wave.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88235

[SouthFloridawx]

This wave has a much better chance than the previous one.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anal.gif

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation



As well as SST support it' is also moving farther south than the last wave. It's not going to be able to kick up as much dust so to speak.

It will be moving into a fairly moist area also.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wvmid.html

As long as the convection persists 24 hours after it moves off the coast it's got a fairly good chance of development.

I'm not seeing much other model support being the down side.

[Rieyeuxs]

I thought that from what Derek had been telling us before, this could be the sacrificial lamb to get 94 jump started again.

[wxmann_91]

I'm not seeing much other model support being the down side.

I'm perplexed about that too, for the EPAC system, that is (with the exception of the NOGAPS). The GFS has been extremely consistent with both the location and intensity of the EPAC system for a couple of days now, and yet few, if any, of the other models show it.

[wxman57]

It looks like the large mass of thunderstorms at the center of this disturbance collapsed over the past few hours. Here's an animation I made:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/eastatl.gif

Still, a fairly impressive amount of energy.

[cycloneye]

It looks like the large mass of thunderstorms at the center of this disturbance collapsed over the past few hours. Here's an animation I made:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/eastatl.gif

Still, a fairly impressive amount of energy.

57,I have to tell you that the image you posted is from 4:00 AM CDT early this morning on the 16th.

[wxman57]

It looks like the large mass of thunderstorms at the center of this disturbance collapsed over the past few hours. Here's an animation I made:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/eastatl.gif

Still, a fairly impressive amount of energy.

57,I have to tell you that the image you posted is from 4:00 AM CDT early this morning on the 16th.

That's the first image of a 6-image animated GIF you're seeing. 4am, 7am, 10am, 1pm, 4pm, and 7pm.

File size is about 1.7MB, let it load.

[cycloneye]

Ok good 57. Good animation of not only Africa but of the Atlantic.

[Derek Ortt]

94L may be too dead to recover

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its all dead. I don't expect this to form at least not right off the African coast. Its been a very long time since we had a 30 west or east of that tropical cyclone.

[Scorpion]

Heh this wave didn't even make it to the coast that's how bad its getting.

[rainstorm]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=15