93L Invest Recon discussion

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'CaneFreak
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#81 Postby 'CaneFreak » Wed Aug 16, 2006 3:10 pm

Sorry if I offended anyone....but that is the correct synoptic forecast....
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#82 Postby skysummit » Wed Aug 16, 2006 3:10 pm

wxman57...where are you a met at? I'm just curious as to why you'd have to work this weekend when the system is off the east coast. Aren't you in TX somewhere?
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#83 Postby miamicanes177 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 3:10 pm

What further needs to happen for this to develop into a tropical depression?
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#84 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 3:11 pm

miamicanes177 wrote:What further needs to happen for this to develop into a tropical depression?


Closed circulation.
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#85 Postby miamicanes177 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 3:12 pm

I thought they only issue a VDM if it has a closed circulation?
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#86 Postby 'CaneFreak » Wed Aug 16, 2006 3:12 pm

it has a closed circulation....recon found a closed circulation....just needs more time to build more convection...!!!!
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#87 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 3:13 pm

The need to change the technical definition of a TD on their site.
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#88 Postby vacanechaser » Wed Aug 16, 2006 3:13 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
miamicanes177 wrote:What further needs to happen for this to develop into a tropical depression?


Closed circulation.


it has a closed low... thats why there is a vortex message....




Jesse V. Bass III
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Hurricane Intercept Research Team
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#89 Postby wxman57 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 3:13 pm

skysummit wrote:wxman57...where are you a met at? I'm just curious as to why you'd have to work this weekend when the system is off the east coast. Aren't you in TX somewhere?


We have clients from Mexico (BoC) to Maine and east thru the Caribbean. We issue advisories every 3-6 hours whenever there is any named system anywhere in the tropical Atlantic.
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#90 Postby sevenleft » Wed Aug 16, 2006 3:13 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
miamicanes177 wrote:What further needs to happen for this to develop into a tropical depression?


Closed circulation.
It has one. Increased thunderstorm activity is the limiting reagent so to speak right now...
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#91 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 3:14 pm

wxman57 wrote:
skysummit wrote:wxman57...where are you a met at? I'm just curious as to why you'd have to work this weekend when the system is off the east coast. Aren't you in TX somewhere?


We have clients from Mexico (BoC) to Maine and east thru the Caribbean. We issue advisories every 3-6 hours whenever there is any named system anywhere in the tropical Atlantic.


Clients? General Public?
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#92 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 3:14 pm

I see recon obs showing surface winds of 25kts.
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#93 Postby skysummit » Wed Aug 16, 2006 3:15 pm

wxman57 wrote:
skysummit wrote:wxman57...where are you a met at? I'm just curious as to why you'd have to work this weekend when the system is off the east coast. Aren't you in TX somewhere?


We have clients from Mexico (BoC) to Maine and east thru the Caribbean. We issue advisories every 3-6 hours whenever there is any named system anywhere in the tropical Atlantic.


Oh cool. Who's "we". Just curious about your organzation.
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#94 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Aug 16, 2006 3:16 pm

It has a closed LLC with convection. We have had many a td with convection displaced remember Alberto? ECT. This ting is not falling apart even so the LLC is on the northern side. Could it come out of the convection sure. Could the convection reform over it in strengthen the system to debby sure it could.
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#95 Postby 'CaneFreak » Wed Aug 16, 2006 3:18 pm

Thunder44 wrote:I see recon obs showing surface winds of 25kts.

They aren't flying at the surface...a reduction factor of 0.8 or 0.85 is needed to determine surface winds....
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#96 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 3:19 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:It has a closed LLC with convection. We have had many a td with convection displaced remember Alberto? ECT. This ting is not falling apart even so the LLC is on the northern side. Could it come out of the convection sure. Could the convection reform over it in strengthen the system to debby sure it could.


Don't worry Matt, when the next forecaster comes on duty will get our 6pm special advisory on our TD. :D
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#97 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 3:20 pm

'CaneFreak wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:I see recon obs showing surface winds of 25kts.

They aren't flying at the surface...a reduction factor of 0.8 or 0.85 is needed to determine surface winds....


I'm looking at the recon obs, not the minobs.
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#98 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Aug 16, 2006 3:20 pm

The winds where not strong enough so they did not upgrade.
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#99 Postby 'CaneFreak » Wed Aug 16, 2006 3:23 pm

Thunder44 wrote:
'CaneFreak wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:I see recon obs showing surface winds of 25kts.

They aren't flying at the surface...a reduction factor of 0.8 or 0.85 is needed to determine surface winds....


I'm looking at the recon obs, not the minobs.


LINK PLEASE
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#100 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 3:25 pm

'CaneFreak wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:
'CaneFreak wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:I see recon obs showing surface winds of 25kts.

They aren't flying at the surface...a reduction factor of 0.8 or 0.85 is needed to determine surface winds....


I'm looking at the recon obs, not the minobs.


LINK PLEASE


Look at the recon reports thread.
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