93L Invest Recon discussion

['CaneFreak]

[quote="Thunder44"]I see recon obs showing surface winds of 25kts.[/quote]
They aren't flying at the surface...a reduction factor of 0.8 or 0.85 is needed to determine surface winds....

[Thunder44]

I see recon obs showing surface winds of 25kts.

They aren't flying at the surface...a reduction factor of 0.8 or 0.85 is needed to determine surface winds....

URNT11 KNHC 161951
97779 19454 40326 77518 02800 02020 24248 /0014
43625
RMK AF300 01FFA INVEST OB 12
NORTHWEST TURNPOINT

1014mb, surface wind N 25 knots

URNT11 KNHC 162007
97779 20024 40318 77600 02800 33026 23238 /0014
43125
RMK AF300 01FFA INVEST OB 14
SW TURNPOINT. INBOUND TO CENTER

Surface 1014mb, surface wind NW at 25 knots

These are reports I see, but I don't how much they use them in their analysis.

[StormsAhead]

VDM shortly

[senorpepr]

Ok, I am sick and tired of you people saying this thing is going to fall apart...if it does anything, it is going to get better organized...12Z GFS was wrong...there is a stationary front south of NC/SC border...Shear will NOT INCREASE...there is a bubbling ridge of high pressure that is centered over the NE today that will push this thing if anything to the south or southwest...that would put this thing directly over the upper level ridge...therefore....DECREASING SHEAR is likely....and a W to WSW motion can be expected over the next two to three days....

Did you not read the STDS from the TPC?

HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BEFORE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT ON
THURSDAY.

Upper-level wind becoming more unfavorable = increasing shear.

If you're sick and tired, maybe you should try some Tylenol and a nap.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The inner core is no longer warmer then the outside. So that means that the thing is starting ot go down chris path. Not good for development. Also shear is increasing all around. Another bits the dust.