Invest 93L,E of Florida,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[Thunder44]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 5:30 PM EDT on August 16, 2006


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
An area of low pressure is located about 150 miles southeast of the
coasts of north and South Carolina. Reports from an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum surface
winds are near 25 mph in a few spots. The low is currently
producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. However...
this system could become a tropical depression at any time within
the next 24 hours as it drifts westward...before upper-level winds
become increasingly unfavorable for development on Thursday.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Thursday.
$$
Forecaster Rhome/Pasch

[Thunder44]

Looks like convection is diminishing for the moment. So perhaps we won't have anything worry about anymore.

[Regit]

Looks like convection is diminsihing for the moment. So perhaps we won't have anything worry about anymore.

Well, just as convection must persist for a storm to be upgraded, lack of convection must also persist for a storm to be downgraded or declared dead.

We'll have to see how it goes overnight.

[Sanibel]

The best you can say is the convection has deepened just a touch.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

You can also say 93L has become slightly larger.

[Normandy]

Check out that tiny little swirl with one TS to its NE.....reminds me of the invests so far this year.

[Normandy]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

ALso, the tendency map does show some shear coming, but it also shows decreasing shear directly west of the increasing shear....so perhaps its where 93L is whenever the shear arrives.

[Trugunzn]

so close to be a depression but its not

[StormsAhead]

18z ship report of 22.6 knots near 33 24' N 77 36' W (NNW of the center):
http://www.oceanweather.com/data/SE-US/marine_text.html

[Sanibel]

Glad somebody else saw that naked swirl NE.

[wxman57]

Just after the NHC decided not to upgrade the disturbance, outflow really improved for an hour or so. It had a good outflow jet to the northwest and the convection started to inch toward the center. However, in the past hour, convection had died out and there's a significant disruption in the outflow to the northwest. It appears that the increasing NW-N winds aloft are reaching the system now. Its window to develop may be closed.

[Dave C]

That's what Steve Lyons mentioned as well. Water vapor shows the shear advancing southward towards the system steadily, the knockout punch will be there probably in 6hrs or a little later.

[Thunder44]

Just after the NHC decided not to upgrade the disturbance, outflow really improved for an hour or so. It had a good outflow jet to the northwest and the convection started to inch toward the center. However, in the past hour, convection had died out and there's a significant disruption in the outflow to the northwest. It appears that the increasing NW-N winds aloft are reaching the system now. Its window to develop may be closed.

That's what I saw too, and I think it lost is best to chance to develop today.

['CaneFreak]

Welll....I need to apologize for my stupidity....Jet stream is going to rip this thing apart in 12-18 hrs...I was blinded by my own ambition....my apologies to all....

[storms in NC]

It will get a little bit of juice from the gulf stream. Not much but a little

[benny]

almost time to show it the door... not yet.. but soon...

[Normandy]

Well, it is viewable on the radar, whether it be mid level turning or low level turning.

Also, its getting close to the coast.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

You can see the circulation fairly well

[Weatherfreak14]

The circulation is well defined but uit really only has one squall of rain in this whole system.

[Acral]

Where is my fork? This one is dead.

2006, Hurricane Season Part One -- "As storms Die"

2006, Hurricane Season Part Two -- "Revenge of the Storm" ? probably

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I believe this looked better then tropical depression 7...Which formed off of tropical depression 6. Heck it looked alot better. This looked better then tropical depression 4 from 2000 to.