Hurricane Ioke thread

[wxmann_91]

I don't know if the warm Atlc SSTs will counteract any El Nino... the atmosphere is more complex than that. I'm starting to feel like the season may favor less storms in the deep tropics and more in the mid-latitudes... but just a gut feeling.

If the Pacific signal is strong enough...the Atlantic cannot do a thing about that. Winter last year was a good example, despite the -NAO, the Pacific Jet kept everything progressive and warm.

FWIW, many of the globals are developing 91C south of Hawaii.

[Cyclenall]

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center has this to say about Invest 91C:

1000 AM HST WED AUG 16 2006
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

An area of disturbed weather is centered near 107N 144.7W or about 930 miles southeast of Hilo. This area of disturbed weather is moving toward the west at around 15 mph. A recent quickscat pass did not indicate any low level circulation, only the presence of an east west oriented surface trough. Development if any is expected to be slow to occur.

[Scorpion]

Must be a boring job at the CPAC hurricane center.

[Cyclenall]

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center has this to say about Invest 91C right now (4:00 pm HST):

400 PM HST WED AUG 16 2006
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

An area of disturbed weather is centered near 103N 148.2W or about 820 miles southeast of Hilo. This area of disturbed weather is moving westward and remains very disorganized with no low level circulation evident. Development if any is expected to be slow to occur.

[CrazyC83]

Yeah I kinda question the need for its existence...NWS Honolulu and the NHC should be in charge...

[Steve]

>>That means 2007 will (I think) be a fairly quiet year in the Atlantic - and an insane year in the Pacific.

Not necessarily. It depends on the strength and length of the El Nino. Should it be abating by late winter or early spring, we could just as easily see a 2005 (well maybe not just as easily). Or we could also see a weak styled El Nino circa 2002. It really depends on the magnitude and duration of the event. I can't imagine it would be all that major because we've been in quasi-neutral for a few years now with some general fluctuations.

Steve

[Cyclenall]

Has anyone checked out the GFDL model on this? The model run takes invest 91C to major hurricane strength.

Link: GFDL Model Run

[CrazyC83]

It would be Ioke correct?

That is impressive for the Central Pacific (962mb / 120mph) if such develops...El Nino on its way?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It would not have to trend much to the east to be a threat to the islands.

[AussieMark]

if it developed could it be a threat to western pacific nations

some monsters have originated in central pacific
i.e Oliwa and Paka of 1997

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Quickscat shows a LLC closing...With on satellite convection starting to spin..This might be the next big storm.

[Cyclenall]

That is impressive for the Central Pacific (962mb / 120mph) if such develops...El Nino on its way?

If it does develop into a major hurricane or even a strong tropical storm, something is up.

Quickscat shows a LLC closing...With on satellite convection starting to spin..This might be the next big storm.

All we need is more deep convection and organization then were set.

[clfenwi]

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (CP912006) ON 20060818 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060818 0600 060818 1800 060819 0600 060819 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.6N 152.0W 11.2N 154.4W 11.7N 156.6W 11.8N 158.6W
BAMM 10.6N 152.0W 11.2N 153.9W 11.8N 155.8W 12.2N 157.6W
LBAR 10.6N 152.0W 11.1N 154.1W 11.8N 156.5W 12.3N 159.0W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060820 0600 060821 0600 060822 0600 060823 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.0N 160.6W 12.6N 164.8W 13.8N 167.7W 14.6N 169.4W
BAMM 12.6N 159.4W 13.5N 163.4W 15.0N 166.8W 16.4N 168.8W
LBAR 12.3N 161.4W 12.0N 165.2W 13.8N 167.2W .0N .0W
SHIP 52KTS 63KTS 68KTS 66KTS
DSHP 52KTS 63KTS 68KTS 66KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.6N LONCUR = 152.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 10.2N LONM12 = 150.6W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 10.1N LONM24 = 148.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 11.9N 160.1W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 20.08.2006 11.9N 160.1W WEAK
00UTC 21.08.2006 12.3N 161.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.08.2006 13.6N 163.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.08.2006 14.8N 165.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.08.2006 15.7N 167.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.08.2006 16.4N 168.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.08.2006 16.6N 170.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.08.2006 16.3N 172.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY



Latter is from 00Z UKMET

[Cyclenall]

Umm....the GFDL is still showing this invest becoming a major hurricane and it's been like this for more then a few runs now. On top of that, I checked 91C on the NRL and it appears it's getting better organized with more convection. One hour later, a TCFA was issued. The chances of this forming has gone up sharply during the last 12 hours. I'd say it can form soon if it keeps going.

[clfenwi]

ACPN50 PHFO 192000
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST SAT AUG 19 2006

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

AN AREA OF CONVECTION APPROXIMATELY 700 MILES SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF
HILO...HAWAII...HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF INCREASING ORGANIZATION OVER
THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS AREA...IF ANY...WILL
LIKELY BE SLOW OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

$$

KINEL

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WTPN21 PHNC 191900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 191851Z AUG 06//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.0N 156.0W TO 11.6N 163.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 191730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.0N 157.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.1N
156.4W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 157.4W, APPROXIMATELY 810 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ATOLL. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
DEPICTS IMPROVED OVERALL ORGANIZATION WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE
BANDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DISTURBANCE. A 191211Z
AMSR-E PASS DEPICTED A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS, WITH GOOD OUTFLOW AND
WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 201900Z.//

[benny]

looks really good. might be a TD tomorrow

[Derek Ortt]

Interesting that CPHC and JTWC have differing views on this system. CPHC is liking the system far less than JTWC

[benny]

CPHC only likes systems with eyes.

[AnnularCane]

Pretty little thing. How long has this been an invest?

[wxmann_91]

CPAC systems tend to recurve before threatening East Asia.

This system looks pretty good. But, CPHC is the official agency.

Derek, what are your thoughts on this system?