Time to Revise Those 2006 Season Predictions!

[LaBreeze]

Aaaaaahhh!

[DESTRUCTION5]

original 17/9/4

now 8/3/1

5 more and thats it Boca? Jeez...Not a good revision IMO

[JTD]

Originally 15/7/4

Now 6/1/0

[Brent]

Originaly 15/7/4

Now 6/1/0

[DESTRUCTION5]

Originaly 15/7/4

Now 6/1/0

Man we will have them #'s buy the end of the month

[boca]

Destruction5 I don't see it happening this year because of the negative SOI producing EL NIno like conditions even though its still neutral.

[Cyclenall]

I didn't really have final numbers but my thinking was at the start of the 2006 season, 20+ named storms. However, my thinking has switched based on what is going on with the Atlantic this season. It could be just like 2004 only with less named storms:

Old numbers: 20+/??/??
New numbers: 14/8/5

This is based off if we get a very active September. Very much like 2004. If the Atlantic stays like this up to September 10, then those numbers are toast.

[StormWarning1]

I didn't really have final numbers but my thinking was at the start of the 2006 season, 20+ named storms. However, my thinking has switched based on what is going on with the Atlantic this season. It could be just like 2004 only with less named storms:

Old numbers: 20+/??/??
New numbers: 14/8/5

This is based off if we get a very active September and October. Very much like 2004. If the Atlantic stays like this up to September 10, then those numbers are toast.

2004 had an active August.

[JTD]

Originaly 15/7/4

Now 6/1/0

Man we will have them #'s buy the end of the month

3 more storms between now and the end of August? That'd be a tall order given the conditions in the Atlantic.

FYI 1982 had 5/2/1, 1983 had 4/3/1 and 1997 had 8/3/1 so my numbers aren't impossible.

[jasons2k]

jschlitz=17/12/6

Revision would be 13/7/3. IMO the heart of the season will be very active but we won't have a bunch of lingering late-season storms (assuming El Nino is on its way)

[tgenius]

Original 18/8/4

Revised would be 11/4/2

[willjnewton]

if you revised the forecast numbers down you all...where will all the storms or hurricanes hit for this 2006 storm season??? and if you can make a prediction please tell me WHY

[jasons2k]

if you revised the forecast numbers down you all...where will all the storms or hurricanes hit for this 2006 storm season??? and if you can make a prediction please tell me WHY

Unfortunately, nobody knows. All we can do it wait and see...we can't make an accurate landfall prediction until a storm actually forms.

[willjnewton]

I know no one knows but based on the conditions in the atlantic which area is most at risk for this 2006 storm season and can someone has there reasoning behind it of why to please okay, thanks

[Extremeweatherguy]

18/9/5 = Original

15/8/4 = New

Less overall activity, but still a crazy season. I expect at least 2 major hurricane hits (or close threats) on the U.S. this year; one in the Gulf, and one on the east coast.

[CronkPSU]

138-CronkPSU=21/14/4

and I'm sticking to it

[Extremeweatherguy]

Originaly 15/7/4

Now 6/1/0

Man we will have them #'s buy the end of the month

3 more storms between now and the end of August? That'd be a tall order given the conditions in the Atlantic.

FYI 1982 had 5/2/1, 1983 had 4/3/1 and 1997 had 8/3/1 so my numbers aren't impossible.

but they are HIGHLY unlikely considering we are in an above average hurricane phase, and everything seems to be in place for an active next many weeks. Also, 1997 (also in this above average phase) was during one of the strongest modern El Ninos.

[mempho]

I'm embarassed by my original forecast. I based the whole thing on 1933 not being an analog year to 2005 and thinking that this had happened due to the decrease in the Gulf Stream. While I still think that might be making a difference (The Gulf Stream not taking as much warm water out of the tropics), I really failed to realize how many other factors would have to fall correctly for this to happen.

Now, for the updated forecast:

12/6/4

Reasoning:

I think we will have a fairly active peak of the season, however, I don't think that we will see as many hurricanes as a percentage of named storms as we have seen in the past. I do, however, think that if a storm finds a place where it can develop to hurricane-strength, the environment will likely be favorable for more rapid deepening. Hence, I have made 2/3 of the hurricanes majors. Fortunately, most of these should recurve if the material that I have been reading is correct.

[Andrew92]

Holy cow, I said 18/10/6 originally?! What was I thinking?

New numbers:

13/7/3

-Andrew92

[Jim Cantore]

I had 17/9/5

Dropping to 16/7/4