this 2006 storm season is the slowest I have ever seen

[Grease Monkey]

:lol:

Will's my favorite poster. I hope he calls in frequently on the various IPR radio shows too.

The show would never end.

[willjnewton]

you all may LOCK THIS THREAD OKAY, thanks

[NetZeroZeus]

Hmm..Well I can't say much without echoing other people's comments in this thread, I may just go back to being a lurker since I really don't have much to offer in the way of tropical weather experience, but I do enjoy watching tropical weather, of course I hate the damage, but don't we all? Well, all of us, except maybe the poster of this thread...but you get the point.
Although, now that we have the discussion going, I don't think there's a need to lock the thread.

[wxmann_91]

Will, come on. El Nino won't affect the 2006 hurricane season, but the 2007 season could be affected.

Actually, Nino's and Nina's usually dissipate around spring. It's usually the season prior to the winter, not after.

Oh ok. Thanks.

Don't mention it.

Will, we don't need to lock this thread. We can continue the discussion.

[benny]

Up to now.. as many have mentioned.. the season is just a touch below average. That can change in a hurry though. There are a couple of factors that are making this a little interesting.. the 30 and 90 day SOI are strongly hinting that El Nino-like conditions are affecting the global atmosphere. Jim Hughes mentioned this months ago and he indeed may be proven to be correct. However... SSTs are still well above average in the Atlantic Ocean and are just waiting for any large-scale conditions to change. Up to now.. the tropical Atlantic has been a little less unstable than average.. see: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/tatins.gif
this can also be seen in the brightness temp.. the lower the temp the more unstable in general:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/tatbtw.gif

Most of the other factors have been on the favorable side of average. There is a fair intraseasonal oscillation moving into the eastpac right now.. perhaps it contributed to the development of Hector. The question is where do things go from there? in July a rather stable configuration occurred with all sorts of EPac activity and little in the Atlantic. see:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/h ... tlon.shtml
green is generally rising motion in the upper atmosphere and brown is sinking motion (not generally beneficial to hurricane formation)

the green lingered in the eastpac from 1 july to almost the end of the month and produced a very active july for that area. when that "wave" passed through the Atlantic.. very little was produced (just chris). so... we shall see

[Opal storm]

Can we make a main thread titled "this season is a dud" or something like that so everybody can have ONE thread to go to complain and cry about how boring this season is.It seems like everyday there is a new thread about this and it's really getting old.

[Jim Cantore]

Can we make a main thread titled "this season is a dud" or something like that so everybody can have ONE thread to go to complain and cry about how boring this season is.It seems like everyday there is a new thread about this and it's really getting old.

What if the person start tracking storms last year?

[webke]

In my opinion if the person started tracking stoms last year that is wonderful, and I hope he keeps up his interrest, What I read in the posts that Will posts is the constant repeat of the same question. That question has been answered many times and my feeling is that Will does not fully understand the replies. Lets give him a chance to learn by supplying the answers to his questions and Will please read the responses carefully and try to understand what your answer is. I feel that in the end Will will benefit from the increased knowledge and the members will be able to take satisfaction in have providing that knowledge. My only advice to Will is to read the responses, digest the responses and then ask the question to the response you did not understand. Don't repeat the same question as eventually you will tend to look like a troll. I think you have asked some good questions , however I think you need to read and then digest the responses, only then will you be able to understand what the members are trying to tell you. I am not trying to hurt yours or anyones elses feelings just trying to show you and everyones else what the perception is.

[HurriCat]

For me, the key to not having blinding headaches lately is to simply be more selective about which posts I even click on in the first place. Back on topic, I sense this energy building up - that the '06 season is just getting ready to roll.

[Bluefrog]

trust me ... can we all just take a year off with no hurricanes .... will, get a grip, no one can predict a certain date..period. Calm down buddy,

[willjnewton]

Update, the latest climate summary on the 15th of august from the australia team strongly still indicates neutral conditions so thats great news there, maybe this 2006 atlantic storm season will get more active afterall, I thought they said el nino but NOT THIS TIME

[EverythingIsEverything]

Can i get a PM, because i'm not understanding the repeated threads and the i love you's myself!

[Acral]

The season is not dead, it is a bit more active than the typical system... by way of example. the 2006 Alabama Marine calendar does not even show the tracking chart until the month of September.

The last couple of years were the exceptions, not the rules.

Ivan? He visited us in when, oh, OCTOBER

Open, Erin, Danny... and so on... closer to fall than summer

[bob rulz]

What does everybody need a PM for? I'm confused.

I've only been tracking hurricanes since Charley...but reading these forums has helped become more patient in waiting for this season to get going. I've been a bit spoiled in hurricane tracking so far.

[bob rulz]

Uh...Ivan was September.

[Acral]

Whoops. Well my condo is all better now anyway.

[Ptarmigan]

Many active seasons I remember started as very quiet, like 1998, 2000, 2001, and 2004. Just wait. 2006 could be like 2004 hurricane season.

[ericinmia]

Will... Its great to see that you have such a STRONG interest in tropical weather!

What area are you in so that I can get a better idea storm possibilities for you? Mabye you can get a nice tropical storm and see the wind blow things around with plenty of rain, without much destruction.
-Eric

[willjnewton]

I live in the coastal carolinas in norfolk va area

[senorpepr]

We are still at or above average in terms of activity.


2006 compared to active seasons.
2006 compared to climatology.


We have three named storms.

Based on the average from 1995-present, we should have three named storms on August 5th.

Based on the average from 1976-present, we should have three named storms on August 16th.

Based on the average from 1851-present, we should have three named storms on August 27th.