this 2006 storm season is the slowest I have ever seen

[george_r_1961]

We are still at or above average in terms of activity.


2006 compared to active seasons.
2006 compared to climatology.


We have three named storms.

Based on the average from 1995-present, we should have three named storms on August 5th.

Based on the average from 1976-present, we should have three named storms on August 16th.

Based on the average from 1851-present, we should have three named storms on August 27th.

And still we see the "season cancel" posts.


There has been a lot of verifiable information here that plainly shows that a slow first half of august does NOT equate to a slow season. Im afraid that these posts will cause a lot of our members to let their guard down
'
People please...just because conditions are not immediately favorable has no bearing on what may happen 10 days from now. None. History speaks for itself.

[Acral]

Will - I get the idea that the AccuWeather "strike probability" got your attention, as they quipped that the East Coast would be in the line of fire this year.

Now, I know they have developed their own modelling systems and actually are trying to do good by trying to predict risk areas. I, personally, feel that such claims/predictions/risk assessments can lull certain areas into a false sense of security and other areas into a false sense of hightend alert. It is on those grounds that I do not like such "forecasts" similar to how I am a big fan of "cones" as opposed to "lines".

Based on your location, hurricanes are fairly rare, and in all honesty, you should be thankful.

I completely understand your curiosity and excitement about the storms, but I implore you to realize the true power of one of these monsters.

By way of example. Hurricane Danny was a catagory one. That storm completely emptied Mobile Bay, caused loss of life, flooding (btw this flooding you hear about is not a calm slow rise of water), tornadoes, and more than a little wind damage.

In comparison, Opal wreaked havoc as far inland as 300 miles, spawning tornados, floods, and super-cell storms. When Opal hit, I had friends in Alabaster AL, some 130 miles from my island here in Gulf Shores and from what they told me and damage reports after, they got it almost as bad as the coast.

Your interest is good. I do think you should experience a tropical system or even a good squall line to get a feel for the power, but if you do so, please ensure that you do it with an experienced group as these types of weather situations can become lethal in a split second.

[Jim Cantore]

Remember 2004, no storms until July 31st, then the flood gates opened and out of them came the costliest Hurricane season on record (that record was broken by Katrina alone)

[willjnewton]

lock this threaD please, how many times I have to tell you all to lock the threaD but you all just keep on going and talking about me which I already know the answers to the question already okay thanks, I LOVE you all

[HomesteadHoney]

Will, forum poster do not decide when to lock the thread. It is not your personal blog. Once the thread is begun, it is community property and ANYONE can put forth their opinions. This includes novice storm chasers as well as Professional Meteorologists and smart people. You cannot decide who answers or discusses the topic in the thread. Even if you start the thread, you do not decide when it ends. Only the Storm2K Moderators and Analysts can decide to lock the thread. Will, with your natural curiosity and tenacity, perhaps someday you will be a tropical weather professional. I will be pleased to say I knew you way back when.....