Tropical System Info

[drezee]

1010mb pressure with 30kt sustained winds

14/15 3FFJ4 13.0 -78.1 26.5 25.2 110 30 1010.0 0.0 28.0 3FFJ4

TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 8N62W 15N61W 20N58W IS NOW ALONG
7N64W 15N63W 20N61W MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. THE WAVE HAS CONTINUED
TO MAINTAIN ITS EXCELLENT SIGNATURE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...
QUIKSCAT IMAGERY...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE GREATEST
LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY IS CURRENTLY JUST N OF ISLA BLANQUILLA. AT
12Z THE NRN PART OF THE WAVE WAS PERFECTLY POSITIONED NEAR
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA WITH A DISTINCT SE TO NE WIND SHIFT BETWEEN
GUADELOUPE AND ST. KITTS. IN ADDITION...CONVECTION HAS BEEN
DEVELOPING ALONG THE AXIS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 60W-65W...
INCLUDING OVER THE ISLANDS BETWEEN GUADELOUPE AND ST. LUCIA.

TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 80W/81W IS REPOSITIONED ALONG
78W/79W S OF 20N MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. CONVECTION HAS REALLY
BLOSSOMED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ALONG THE WAVE AND IT
APPEARS THAT A LOW-LEVEL SURFACE LOW IS FORMING ALONG THE AXIS
IN THE VICINITY OF 14N80W. IF THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
ORGANIZE AND PERSIST...SOME TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS ESPECIALLY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 75W-80W AND FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 80W-84W.

A SURFACE LOW IS ATTEMPTING TO FORM ALONG A
CONVECTIVELY-VIGOROUS TRPCL WAVE. CURRENTLY A MID/UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE NEAR
19N86W WITH WEAK TO MODERATE SUBSIDENCE LOCATED N OF 14N BETWEEN
83W-90W. AN AREA OF RIDGING HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP JUST E OF THIS
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW STRETCHING FROM THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN NWWD
ACROSS JAMAICA TO CNTRL CUBA. THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE GOOD SLY
OUTFLOW TO ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN
AND IN FACT THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BECOME CLOSED OFF INTO AN
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 24-48 HRS. SEE THE
LATEST MIATWOAT FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -WESTERN CARIBBEAN
A. 15/2100Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 15/1730Z
D. 18.5N 83.0W
E. 15/2000Z-16/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS NEAR 20N AND 85W AT 16/1200Z