Models show more active Atlantic

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cycloneye
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Models show more active Atlantic

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 17, 2006 6:47 am

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

I know it's a long ways out but for the first time I see a hurricane from any model.Let's see in next runs from this and other models how it changes run by run about this first very significant system.

Mark Sudduth,will finnally your team chase something?
Last edited by cycloneye on Fri Aug 18, 2006 8:10 pm, edited 22 times in total.
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#2 Postby skysummit » Thu Aug 17, 2006 6:54 am

Now that should get the Carolinians wailing away! A long tracked Cape Verde storm making landfall along the east coast.
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#3 Postby Bane » Thu Aug 17, 2006 6:57 am

It'll change a few more times down the road.
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#4 Postby skysummit » Thu Aug 17, 2006 6:58 am

Here's the big boy himself. I'm pretty sure this is what the GFS is developing...

Image
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#5 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 17, 2006 7:00 am

Bane wrote:It'll change a few more times down the road.


For sure yes,changes will occur in the next runs.
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#6 Postby Meso » Thu Aug 17, 2006 7:00 am

Heh... I was just coming to post the same topic.. Looks like it is getting deeper on newer runs,but alas as you said cycloneye a long way out and we'll have to see
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#7 Postby skysummit » Thu Aug 17, 2006 7:02 am

Still finally a little consistency with the GFS. Hasn't it been showing this for a couple days now, but only deepening it more now?
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#8 Postby Meso » Thu Aug 17, 2006 7:04 am

Yeah,I believe that is the case skysummit..saw some of the older runs and they did have a little something
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#9 Postby StormsAhead » Thu Aug 17, 2006 7:05 am

This is a low that should come off the coast of Africa tomorrow. It does look like the great 1944 hurricane for the Outer Banks, the Jersey Shore, and New England on the GFS. I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't develop the system anymore once it actually gets into the Atlantic, but in any case it is finally catching on to the increasing upward motion over the next couple of weeks.
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#10 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 17, 2006 7:06 am

This message is for Will.

Will I know that after you see this you will post here so I say to you that live in Norfolk,VA that take it easy with this because many changes will occur in each run.The only thing to do now is to watch the system,how it evolves in reallity,in what direction is moving etc.So dont worrie right away Will,as we will inform you about this every day as it evolves.
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#11 Postby skysummit » Thu Aug 17, 2006 7:10 am

For those with slower connections, where is what the GFS is showing on that run.

Image
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#12 Postby Frank2 » Thu Aug 17, 2006 7:14 am

September 1 or 2 is a long way off - as the others said, it's very likely to change with each run.

Frank
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#13 Postby skysummit » Thu Aug 17, 2006 7:16 am

I believe most here know the models will change with each run. The point is this is the first time the GFS has developed a hurricane this season. That's something to talk about even if it never happens.
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#14 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Aug 17, 2006 7:17 am

If I had a 100 dollar bill for everytime the GFS showed a TC developing. I would be rich man. :D
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#15 Postby willjnewton » Thu Aug 17, 2006 7:18 am

well if the gfs model holds true than I am going to have a hurricane celebration or party in a great way because I love storms and I never experienced a storm so tell the gfs forecast model I said thanks
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#16 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Aug 17, 2006 7:18 am

Well youd only have 100 dolllars for the hurricanes and for a rich man, thats not much
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#17 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 17, 2006 7:23 am

willjnewton wrote:well if the gfs model holds true than I am going to have a hurricane celebration or party in a great way because I love storms and I never experienced a storm so tell the gfs forecast model I said thanks


But Will,as I said in message above,dont take his as a stone thing because this will change in the track and strengh in the next runs.
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#18 Postby willjnewton » Thu Aug 17, 2006 7:26 am

okay thanks cycloneye and also thankyou for the message you sent me up above this threaD
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#19 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 17, 2006 7:27 am

willjnewton wrote:okay thanks cycloneye and also thankyou for the message you sent me up above this threaD


Your welcome Will :)
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#20 Postby CronkPSU » Thu Aug 17, 2006 7:45 am

didn't the GFS predict chris to become a hurricane?
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