Invest 93L,E of Florida,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[Stormavoider]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

Will this front push it? Or will it just strip it dry?

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 170205
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT WED AUG 16 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 MILES EAST OF
CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA...HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS WHILE DRIFTING WESTWARD. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
25 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR
THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH

[EDR1222]

I think the latest update from the NHC says it all. Wind shear is coming into play and there is some drier air that will be affecting the system. Looks like it has just about lost the small window of opportunity that it had.

I also read somewhere, I cannot remember where, that many areas in the Atlantic basin are currently experiencing rather high sea surface pressures which may be suppressing development somewhat. Of course things could change and we have seen this type of thing before. September is right around the corner.

[Stormavoider]

Is the convection starting to refire?

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[skysummit]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU AUG 17 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA...HAS CHANGED LITTLE
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WHILE DRIFTING WESTWARD. THE
ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POORLY ORGANIZED...AND MAXIMUM
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 25 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
DECREASING.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[skysummit]

From the 2:05am Disco:

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM EAST OF
CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA...HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS WHILE DRIFTING WESTWARD. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 20 KT IN A FEW SPOTS. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL
FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

[Thunder44]

I've noticed pressures have dropped since yesterday and winds have increased at bouy 41004. They have been reporting 20 to 25 kt winds with higher gusts that past hour or so. But I wonder how much is due the low center itself, maybe the front moving through? I don't see any thunderstorms in this area.

http://ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41004

[Stormavoider]

23+ kts sustained off Charleston.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41004

[Thunder44]

Look at radar the LLC is moving more southward towards the thunderstorms. The strong upper-level winds from the north may actually helping the circulation develop more.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

Although it's starting look a little less defined.

[Stormavoider]

OOPs I didn't see your 41004 post.

[Thunder44]

OOPs I didn't see your 41004 post.

That's ok

[Stormavoider]

I wonder if there is a new center forming under the big blob of convection.
This ship is just east of it. SSE @24kts

SHIP S 1200 32.20 -77.80 124 268 210 24.1 - - -

[Stormsfury]

Definite influence of the wind field in the lower levels this morning from the invest. Small stradling cumuli developing and rapidly moving off to the SSW at a good clip, with surface winds N to NNE 10-15 mph this morning.

Although, significant development IMHO is not expected, any rainfall would be beneficient for the somewhat parched grounds here in the Lowcountry.

SF

[skysummit]

Awh...I wish this darn thing would cross the coast already. I'm tired of 93L.

[Thunder44]

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932006) ON 20060817 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060817 1200 060818 0000 060818 1200 060819 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 32.4N 78.6W 31.5N 79.9W 30.4N 82.2W 29.6N 84.8W
BAMM 32.4N 78.6W 32.2N 79.8W 31.8N 81.3W 31.4N 82.8W
A98E 32.4N 78.6W 32.3N 79.3W 31.8N 80.4W 29.8N 81.2W
LBAR 32.4N 78.6W 32.1N 79.5W 32.0N 80.8W 32.2N 82.3W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 28KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060819 1200 060820 1200 060821 1200 060822 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.9N 87.4W 28.0N 92.7W 27.9N 98.4W 28.2N 103.6W
BAMM 31.0N 84.4W 30.5N 87.2W 30.4N 90.4W 30.8N 93.2W
A98E 28.8N 82.6W 26.9N 85.5W 26.4N 89.2W 27.2N 93.6W
LBAR 32.1N 83.8W 32.2N 86.0W 32.5N 86.8W 32.8N 86.4W
SHIP 35KTS 37KTS 41KTS 42KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 32.4N LONCUR = 78.6W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 32.4N LONM12 = 77.5W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 32.3N LONM24 = 76.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[miamicanes177]

It looks better to me this morning with increased thunderstorm activity.

[Thunder44]

I wonder if there is a new center forming under the big blob of convection.
This ship is just east of it. SSE @24kts

SHIP S 1200 32.20 -77.80 124 268 210 24.1 - - -

I don't think there is another center reforming. The same center seems to be there just east of SC coast and is drifting SW. In the last few mins images show some showers and thunderstorms developing around the center again.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

[Stormavoider]

Yes! It looks like the center has sort of "consolidated" much closer to the big blob to the SW.

[Sanibel]

The season's finally starting to change since this system is throwing red-tops and hanging in in unfavorable conditions. The Gulf Stream is feeding a warm flow under it.

[z-bail]

well, i'm no expert at all but on the water vapor it is starting to look impressive to my untrained eye. not what i expected to see this morning from what was forecast with it getting ripped apart by the unfavorable winds. looking impressive to me and almost moving due south. just send me some waves!